What is happening with baseball card prices?

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by hcv123

Another thought I have is the prices relative to other collected categories - How much does a great or rare painting sell for? Previously mentioned cars? Coins? Art other than paintings? Jewelry? In that context Sports cards and memorabilia are in their financial infancy.

I don't think we've caught the Superman #1 comic yet. If one the Mantle PSA 10s ever sells during this, maybe we'll see. Not sure if one of those has sold in forever either though (dunno much about them)

[Kutcher55]

I'm quite bullish on the next 6 months. After that, who knows. I can see a leveling off post Covid but that '52 Mays card is only going up.

Vintage baseball has seen a steady growth these past 12-18 months. Certain players went up substantially (Ruth, Aaron, Mays and Robinson in particular) but a lot of other players didn't move that much, especially compared to basketball and to modern.

In the past ten days since Hank Aaron's passing, vintage has made a big jump and it seems to be involving a greater variety of old cards. There's likely another stimulus coming and the sports card market has been in the news quite a bit lately. You've got mainstream sports media like ESPN and The Ringer talking about it (the first episode of The Ringer sports card podcast was horrid btw). The momentum is huge and the next 6 months should see more growth.

Yes, some collectors will be taking a profit, but more people continue to enter the market. Things look good and the bubble is expanding like 5-piece wad of chewing gum being blown by Kurt freaken Bevacqua. Put me in the bulls corner.

[Republicaninmass]

When everyone is talking about how easy it is to flip ( insert.item here) in a weeks time, be fearful. Just my opinion

[Popcorn]

It’s crazy, the cheapest 52 jackie on eBay right now is $25,000 for a bvg 4

[scmavl]

Originally Posted by Popcorn

It’s crazy, the cheapest 52 jackie on eBay right now is $25,000 for a bvg 4

I bought that Jackie (that exact card) for $6k a couple of months ago, and traded it for what I had in it, as the centering bugged me. It was $15k two days ago, then they raised the price $10k when all other '52 Jackies sold.

[Exhibitman]

I better list mine for $20K

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I better list mine for $20K

I had that card in VG-ish shape 20 years ago and sold it for probably $500. Whoops.

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

I don't think we've caught the Superman #1 comic yet. If one the Mantle PSA 10s ever sells during this, maybe we'll see. Not sure if one of those has sold in forever either though (dunno much about them)

The guys who own those things rarely sell them. I think the last Gem MT Mantle sold 20+ years ago in an REA auction for like 30K!

As the supply of the "best" is removed from the market, it becomes a question of "the best available" - Is it only me or have others seen a dwindling offering of some of the Key rookies and stars graded 8-10?

[Exhibitman]

Supply of many cards is drying up; no one wants to leave money on the table. This is probably a very good time to start selling off the chaff.

[Wanaselja]

2 random observations.

1) I agree that the Ringer’s card podcast wasn’t good. “Clemens PSA 10 RC’s are relatively affordable”.

2) I think the surge in vintage softens slightly when Spring Training starts and everyone is projecting Soto or Tatis to win MVP.

That’s all. And as per forum rules,
Adam Wanaselja.

[Tyruscobb]

If you think this is a bubble, and are calling a top (or close to it), then liquidate everything. Earmark the money for cards. Then, when the market declines, you can buy back all your old cards, plus many more, with the same money. Your collection will come out ahead in the long-run. However, calling a top is hard. I think it was Warren Buffet that said he would love just to be able to get within 20% of predicting a top and bottom.

I’m no expert, but I personally think that the card market will experience a nice correction when the Covid-19 money exits. When somewhat of normalcy returns, card budgets will disappear for other entertainment spending, such as vacations, experiences, etc.

Good luck.

[campyfan39]

I am in agreement with this in that card budgets will drop as people return to vacations, movies and concerts etc.

One other aspect though is people like me who have taken advantage of the spike and sold a few big cards that I wasn't too connected to. I now have a bigger card budget than in the recent past. So I think some of it will continue based on people like me liquidating only to infuse it right back in.

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

If you think this is a bubble, and are calling a top (or close to it), then liquidate everything. Earmark the money for cards. Then, when the market declines, you can buy back all your old cards, plus many more, with the same money. Your collection will come out ahead in the long-run. However, calling a top is hard. I think it was Warren Buffet that said he would love just to be able to get within 20% of predicting a top and bottom.

I’m no expert, but I personally think that the card market will experience a nice correction when the Covid-19 money exits. When somewhat of normalcy returns, card budgets will disappear for other entertainment spending, such as vacations, experiences, etc.

Good luck.

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by campyfan39

I am in agreement with this in that card budgets will drop as people return to vacations, movies and concerts etc.

One other aspect though is people like me who have taken advantage of the spike and sold a few big cards that I wasn't too connected to. I now have a bigger card budget than in the recent past. So I think some of it will continue based on people like me liquidating only to infuse it right back in.

Two economic forces will concurrently operate to push down prices at some point.

First, as previously mentioned, the demand for cards will drop when Covid eases up. People will eventually return to spending their hard-earned money on vacations, concerts, experiences, etc. Their laser-focused entertainment budgets, which are currently just on cards, will splinter into many different directions.

Secondly, when Covid eases up, some collectors, who will now have more entertainment options, will grow bored and exit the hobby. They will no longer have the money or desire to continue collecting cardboard. When the drop in demand starts sending prices down, these collectors will panic and rush to sell their cards to lock in decent profits/prices. This will in turn increase the supply for sale..

Decreased demand and increased supply is bad news for prices, but good news for us true collectors that buy and hold. Although I enjoy seeing my collection’s value increase, it is moot because I’m not selling. The increased value is simply on paper and will remain there. I’m tired of being priced out of the cards that I want. I simply refuse to pay 3x last January’s prices for cards on my wish list.

[mortimer brewster]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I’m no expert, but I personally think that the card market will experience a nice correction when the Covid-19 money exits. When somewhat of normalcy returns, card budgets will disappear for other entertainment spending, such as vacations, experiences, etc.

Good luck.

Agreed, also when financial publications stop touting cards as investments.

I basically took the money I was going to spend on Hotels and transportation to the National last August and Comic Con in October and put thee money in a savings account. I'm just waiting for the speculators to exit and i'll take this money (plus the .001 percent interest) and resume finishing my vintage sets.

I realize prices will always be strong for Hi Grade material, but there is no reason why collector grade EXMT and lower should remain at ridiculous levels once everyone returns to their normal activities.

[Exhibitman]

If anyone really thinks this is a bubble about to burst, where are the sellers? Inventory of good stuff is down to nothing. Some cards I've been looking for lately have no examples for sale, or no new ones.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by hcv123

The guys who own those things rarely sell them. I think the last Gem MT Mantle sold 20+ years ago in an REA auction for like 30K!

As the supply of the "best" is removed from the market, it becomes a question of "the best available" - Is it only me or have others seen a dwindling offering of some of the Key rookies and stars graded 8-10?

Oh I meant the Superman #1. Looks like 2014 was the last sale for it.

Still a ways to go before getting close to top artwork. But then those are one of a kind

[rats60]

Originally Posted by hcv123

The guys who own those things rarely sell them. I think the last Gem MT Mantle sold 20+ years ago in an REA auction for like 30K!

As the supply of the "best" is removed from the market, it becomes a question of "the best available" - Is it only me or have others seen a dwindling offering of some of the Key rookies and stars graded 8-10?

It sold for 275k in 2001.