I simply do not understand Modern - Doncic vs Mantle

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Tabe

It's really pretty simple - demand. Modern basketball has a worldwide audience to a level that vintage baseball doesn't.

I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA. In fact, the Doncic card I mention in my first post is currently at about what 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 10s have been selling for, on average, over the past year (according to VCP). So ignore the comparison to mantle (or Ruth)- why is a Luca Doncic for selling the same as a Jordan?!

[53toppscollector]

Its just pure speculation and day trading. Jordan can't really do anything now to make his cards more desirable and popular. If Doncic wins an MVP or a title, people can flip the cards and make a profit.

If people looked at actual reality, they'd realize that Doncic has basically no chance to be considered better than Jordan. So his card price ceiling should realistically be whatever an '86 Fleer Jordan PSA 10 is worth. You can argue that if he has cards with a lower POP, like an NT RPA numbered to 99 or lower, I can see a PSA 10 selling for more than an '86 Fleer MJ PSA 10. But that is a small handful of very specific cards, and that assumes Doncic goes on to have a career that puts him in the discussion for best ever. Which is kind of crazy, given that Lebron is currently still playing, is a far superior player to Doncic, and already has a massive trophy case/list of career accomplishments, and some people dont even put him on Jordan's level.

Pure daytrading and speculation. When all of the sneakerheads leave the hobby migrate to NFTs or whatever comes after NFTs, I think we'll see the hobby return to something a little bit more sane. Lots of people are gonna lose a lot of money in the process

[RCMcKenzie]

I also don't understand Doncic cards. At least LeBron and Serena are clearly at the top, or near the top of the historical greats list. Watching him play, to me, he is somewhere below James Harden in skill level. He's the second best player on a championship team, i.e., like KD and Harden.

On basketball-reference, they have a stat called "similarity scores" through 3 seasons. Here are the names they compare him with...

Mo Cheeks
Calvin Murphy
John Logan
Glen Combs
Allen Iverson
James Harden
Otis Birdsong
Eddie Jones
Louie Dampier
Bob Davies

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA. In fact, the Doncic card I mention in my first post is currently at about what 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 10s have been selling for, on average, over the past year (according to VCP). So ignore the comparison to mantle (or Ruth)- why is a Luca Doncic for selling the same as a Jordan?!

I'm puzzled by this as well. Doncic is one of the most overrated, overhyped players in the game right now.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA. In fact, the Doncic card I mention in my first post is currently at about what 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 10s have been selling for, on average, over the past year (according to VCP). So ignore the comparison to mantle (or Ruth)- why is a Luca Doncic for selling the same as a Jordan?!

BTW- I “almost” could understand if it was Jordan, but even that I really don’t even understand how that is more (even close) to a 52 mantle psa 7, considering there are a zillion 1986 fleer Jordan’s, most in high to super-high grades. And there is zero reason a Jordan in any condition- even one that smells like his farts- should trade for than one of the 100+/- babe Ruth rookies, in any condition

[MarkBartholomew]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

BTW- I “almost” could understand if it was Jordan, but even that I really don’t even understand how that is more (even close) to a 52 mantle psa 7, considering there are a zillion 1986 fleer Jordan’s, most in high to super-high grades. And there is zero reason a Jordan in any condition- even one that smells like his farts- should trade for than one of the 100+/- babe Ruth rookies, in any condition

The thing with Jordan is that he is the greatest, bar none, basketball player of all time, there's no denying it. There is no one on the horizon to take his legendary place. And basketball is much bigger than baseball around the world. So to me, his rookie cards will forever maintain their value, regardless of how many are out there.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

BTW- I “almost” could understand if it was Jordan, but even that I really don’t even understand how that is more (even close) to a 52 mantle psa 7, considering there are a zillion 1986 fleer Jordan’s, most in high to super-high grades. And there is zero reason a Jordan in any condition- even one that smells like his farts- should trade for than one of the 100+/- babe Ruth rookies, in any condition

Supply is only half the equation.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I get that, and I could almost understand it if it was a 1986 fleer Jordan psa 10 or THE top Lebron or Kobe card. But this is Luka f-ing Doncic. This guy has done nothing. He has won nothing. He has had barely more than a cup of coffee in the NBA.

He's 22. He's done - a lot - more in the NBA than Jordan had at a similar age. It took Jordan 7 seasons to win a title but he was still incredibly popular before that.

I get it - his cards are probably overpriced but the demand is clearly there.

[jingram058]

Why is anything worth what it is, especially cardboard that is easily faked, even encapsulated with a bar code? I damn sure wouldn't base my portfolio on cards unless I planned to cash out before all this stuff crashes.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Tabe

He's 22. He's done - a lot - more in the NBA than Jordan had at a similar age. It took Jordan 7 seasons to win a title but he was still incredibly popular before that.

I get it - his cards are probably overpriced but the demand is clearly there.

Like what?

I just went and had a look at the stats, and he's not really even close.
Jordan led the league in points two of his first three years.
Led in ppg his third year.

And one of those years was nowhere near complete. Injuries? Maybe, I forget.

Doncic hasn't even cleared 3000 points in any of his three years.

Steals, Jordan was around 200/year
Doncic hasn't even reached 100/ year


That's not exactly the sort of dominance that makes a 300K gamble more than a very long shot

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by steve B

Like what?

I just went and had a look at the stats, and he's not really even close.
Jordan led the league in points two of his first three years.
Led in ppg his third year.

And one of those years was nowhere near complete. Injuries? Maybe, I forget.

Doncic hasn't even cleared 3000 points in any of his three years.

Steals, Jordan was around 200/year
Doncic hasn't even reached 100/ year


That's not exactly the sort of dominance that makes a 300K gamble more than a very long shot

Age. I said age. Go look again.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Age. I said age. Go look again.

Age is mostly a non- issue unless it's something like a rookie getting into the league at 30 or something like that.

He has played well, but long term I think there's downside that's being missed.

He didn't get any college experience, which maybe hurts him as a player, maybe not.
On the other hand, it may be the best for him financially. He misses about 20 games a year, so it looks like he may not be the most durable guy. Rushing into the NBA at a young age will make him more, but if he's not really ready physically and becomes perpetually injured his career won't be as long as it could have been.

I doubt the early start will give him 18+ seasons instead of 15. But who knows.

I just don't see a card of him being anything more than a big gamble at 300K

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by steve B

He misses about 20 games a year, so it looks like he may not be the most durable guy.

He's never missed 20 games even once. 10 his first year, 14 his second, 6 his third. He's got a chance at missing 20 this year. Unsure how many of the games missed are because of injury and how many were "load management" that so many teams like doing these days.

[mintacular]

The sports card market is not always rational, there's your answer

[Michael B]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Age. I said age. Go look again.

Your facts still do not hold water. Jordan won an NCAA championship and Pan Am Games gold medal at the age of 19 AND an Olympic Gold medal at the age of 21. The Olympic medal alone easily overshadows what Doncic has done.

[Snowman]

Luka Doncic isn't just some chump or random top 10 player. You guys keep saying "he's done nothing". That's ridiculous. The guy won the Euroleague MVP at the age of 19! The youngest winner ever. That's no small feat. The Euroleague is legit. It's the 2nd highest level of basketball there is. What he's done already stats-wise at the age of 22 is unprecedented. He already has the most triple doubles of anyone ever by the age of 22 (and he still has more 22 year old games to play). More than Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson, Lebron James, Jason Kidd, and Russell Westbrook. And while he's not the current favorite, it is noteworthy that Vegas betting lines opened the season with Luka as the favorite to win the MVP this season. He's not just good, he's great, and he has the potential to be a future multiple MVP winner. There's a reason his contemporaries praise his game as much as they do. The guy is the most impressive young player in the league by a long shot. And lol at whoever said Trae Young was better. You obviously don't know basketball. Defense matters, and Trae Young isn't just a poor defender, he is the worst ranked defensive player in NBA history going back as far as we have sufficient data to be able to evaluate defensive performance (which is something like the past 30 years). He is literally dead last. The worst defender over that timespan.

Whether his talents justify his market prices though is a different question. I agree that I would rather have a nice 52 Mantle than a similarly priced Luka card, but to compare a national treasures RPA card to a vintage base card is like comparing a signed game used Mickey Mantle jersey to a Mickey Mantle card. They're not even in the same ballpark. If there were the equivalent of an NT RPA Mantle card numbers to 99, I'm pretty sure that thing would FAR exceed any other Mantle card value wise. If you want to compare the flagship Mantle "RC" to the flagship Luka RC, then it's not the RPA, it's the Silver Prizm, and a PSA 10 of that goes for around $3k, not $300k. The National Treasures RPA cards are almost an entirely different form of collectible altogether. It's a high end product that is more akin to collecting memorabilia than it is cards, even though it technically is still a card. It's a limited edition product with a very low print run that caters to a very limited group of high end collectors. It's just a very different market.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The guy is the most impressive young player in the league by a long shot.

This is an absurd statement. Ja Morant is a younger and better basketball player than Doncic. Every GM in the league would take Morant over Luka given the choice.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Michael B

Your facts still do not hold water. Jordan won an NCAA championship and Pan Am Games gold medal at the age of 19 AND an Olympic Gold medal at the age of 21. The Olympic medal alone easily overshadows what Doncic has done.

C'mon. Please read what I actually wrote and respond to that. Here it is again:

Originally Posted by Tabe

He's done - a lot - more in the NBA than Jordan had at a similar age.

I've even highlighted the key portion for you.