Would you buy a 1933 Goudey Ruth Raw?

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have to assume they could spot a fake, unless technology is already that good that they can't, in which case this hobby is doomed.

May I ask what technology? Why wouldn't the same exact easily available technology that made them to begin with be used again? Why would there need to be different technology?

[packs]

Probably because that technology no longer exists or would be too cumbersome to reproduce that it's not viable.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bnorth

May I ask what technology? Why wouldn't the same exact easily available technology that made them to begin with be used again? Why would there need to be different technology?

How would you replicate the stock? Not sure it would be that simple to replicate the cuts either.

[markf31]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How would you replicate the stock? Not sure it would be that simple to replicate the cuts either.

The stock could be the toughest part of a Goudey to try to counterfeit. But I am pretty sure that Goudey's in 1933 and 1934 were printed by silkscreen, assuming you could match the colors the silk screening process is very easily replicated.

[packs]

How would you avoid issues like fluorescence? You'd have to find period materials and use period techniques to produce a period card. I don't think it's really possible to do that or the work it would take to replicate these things would not be viable when you factored in time, cost, and likelihood that it would work.

[G1911]

There are some very good alterations. If presented 500 cards, 100 of which were doctored by someone decent at it, I am positive I would not correctly identify a good number of them.

PSA has commercialized an appeal to authority - they are selling little but their (extremely dubious) authority. If you are going to do that, you need to be able to correctly judge what you are selling your authority on. Even worse, PSA is not just getting tricked by the best of carefully done alterations - they let tons get by that a 2 second glance can quickly tell a viewer is altered.

They generally are able to identify fakes in most issues, with some slip-ups. By and large there are few issues with convincing fakes extant.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How would you replicate the stock? Not sure it would be that simple to replicate the cuts either.

LOL, same with the cuts. Just use the same readily available equipment they used the first time.

The other is also very easy to obtain but I won't post it on an open forum. I believe someone once told me "it is just paper".

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have to assume they could spot a fake, unless technology is already that good that they can't, in which case this hobby is doomed.

It isn't quite there yet, but it absolutely will be someday. And yes, that is when the hobby as we know it ceases to exist.

[packs]

Originally Posted by bnorth

LOL, same with the cuts. Just use the same readily available equipment they used the first time.

The other is also very easy to obtain but I won't post it on an open forum. I believe someone once told me "it is just paper".

I really don't think that would work. It would be 100 year old paper used today. How could you realistically expect the paper to even be useable or to maintain the same characteristics as it did when it was brand new in 1933?

We've all seen people try to forge vintage signatures using vintage ink and vintage paper. It never works because the paper isn't new anymore and it doesn't absorb the ink the same way. It's typically pretty obvious.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bnorth

LOL, same with the cuts. Just use the same readily available equipment they used the first time.

The other is also very easy to obtain but I won't post it on an open forum. I believe someone once told me "it is just paper".

LOL yes I said that with regard to alterations. I could be wrong, but I don't think it's that easy to actually replicate the stock from the vintage issues.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

It isn't quite there yet, but it absolutely will be someday. And yes, that is when the hobby as we know it ceases to exist.

Yup. This is the time bomb waiting to happen.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

I really don't think that would work. It would be 100 year old paper used today. How could you realistically expect the paper to even be useable or to maintain the same characteristics as it did when it was brand new in 1933?

We've all seen people try to forge vintage signatures using vintage ink and vintage paper. It never works because the paper isn't new anymore and it doesn't absorb the ink the same way. It's typically pretty obvious.

I won't give details but you are extremely uninformed on the subject. They counterfeit extremely high end entire books that are supposed to be hundreds of years old that pass all the expert reviews. PBS had a great special on the subject. I posted a link when it was first aired but it wasn't too popular on here.

[packs]

Uninformed about what? Because you're talking about many different things at once. Reproducing a block printed book and reproducing a layered and multi-colored baseball card are two different things.

And anyone will tell you that old paper and new ink always look different than old paper and old ink. It's one of the first things you look for when someone is trying to sell you a cut. It's also why pencil is typically avoided. It doesn't have the same tell-tale characteristics as ink.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

Uninformed about what? Because you're talking about many different things at once. Reproducing a block printed book and reproducing a layered and colored baseball card are two different things.

And anyone will tell you that old paper and new ink always look different than old paper and old ink. It's one of the first things you look for when someone is trying to sell you a cut.

Yes I know, simple baseball cards would be so much easier.

[G1911]

If a crime is

1) highly profitable

2) easily or readily done

3) unlikely to be seriously punished

Then I would think there would be an awful lot of it. Conditions 1 and 3 are already met in the hobby. People are making and trying to sell fakes now, without any real punishment whatsoever for the fraud as the authorities are not interested in prosecuting these crimes, these fakes are just poorly done and obvious. That it is highly profitable to make undetectable or nearly undetectable fakes is obvious. So, if condition 2 is also met and it is pragmatically doable to make these, where are they?

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by G1911

If a crime is

1) highly profitable

2) easily or readily done

3) unlikely to be seriously punished

Then I would think there would be an awful lot of it. Conditions 1 and 3 are already met in the hobby. People are making and trying to sell fakes now, without any real punishment whatsoever for the fraud as the authorities are not interested in prosecuting these crimes, these fakes are just poorly done and obvious. That it is highly profitable to make undetectable or nearly undetectable fakes is obvious. So, if condition 2 is also met and it is pragmatically doable to make these, where are they?

It is not that it can't be easily done. It is having access to the correct stuff to do it along with also being a shady person. Now that is a rare combo. The crap counterfeits you see now are not being made on original type equipment.

[packs]

Isn’t that like saying you could print your own money as long as you have the molds, same materials and equipment as the mint?

[CardPadre]

So once we’re at the point where the paper stock and printing is a perfect replica (which will never happen) do the cards need to display 90+ years of authentic looking wear or does everyone just swoon over all these new-to-the-hobby 8s and 9s?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by bnorth

It is not that it can't be easily done. It is having access to the correct stuff to do it along with also being a shady person. Now that is a rare combo. The crap counterfeits you see now are not being made on original type equipment.

That nobody has managed to do this and make the many many millions of dollars it would net strongly suggests it cannot be easily or readily or pragmatically done. People will and often do infinitely worse for much lower gains. I’ve yet to see any evidence that there are any real ethics in this hobby and that the dirtbags abounding wouldn’t do this because they aren’t shady enough

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by CardPadre

So once we’re at the point where the paper stock and printing is a perfect replica (which will never happen) do the cards need to display 90+ years of authentic looking wear or does everyone just swoon over all these new-to-the-hobby 8s and 9s?

I suspect they'll swoon as they do now over the trimmed ones.

[Exhibitman]

Sure, in person so I can evaluate it. Which is why my go bag for shows has a 30x loupe, 100x lit microscope, black light and strong flashlight.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

Isn’t that like saying you could print your own money as long as you have the molds, same materials and equipment as the mint?

People print money every single day. I hear that printing $10 is the least likely way to get you caught. Sadly even that doesn't always work or so I have heard.

Cards are nothing but simple paper and ink. Take any picture to any real print shop and they can make as many exact copies on any type of paper or card stock you want. But yes baseball cards are magic and somehow special.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by bnorth

People print money every single day. I hear that printing $10 is the least likely way to get you caught. Sadly even that doesn't always work or so I have heard.

Cards are nothing but simple paper and ink. Take any picture to any real print shop and they can make as many exact copies on any type of paper or card stock you want. But yes baseball cards are magic and somehow special.

I doubt it would be impossible but it might not be easy to fake the uneven patina on pre war cards.
And don't be fooling around with the 144....(a 1 piece instead of a 2 piece, shown above)

.

[steve B]

As far as an outright fake goes, I believe it's possible to make one that will pass the grading companies.

There were few changes in lithography between about 1920 and the late 1980's. The sort of equipment the shop I worked for had is out of date for modern production printing but is readily available. A smallish press can be had for a couple thousand, and the other stuff is also available, camera, plate maker, cutter. Light tables are easy to make.

The stock wouldn't be that hard, I haven't looked for it, but it should be available.
Inks have changed, but the art lithography market has a lot of available inks.

Now, the question of "undetectable" really depends on who is doing the detecting and how seriously they look at things.

The angle of the cut may be different between cutters. I'll have to give it some thought, but older machines had a slightly different path for the blade. So that may be detectable.
Paper that won't react to UV is still made, almost all acid free paper doesn't include brighteners. It has a lot that's wrong, but comic book backing boards are not reactive to UV.
So with some knowledge and some looking, that gets you nearly all the way there.

Would modern stuff like inks and paper stand up to something like and XRF machine? Probably not. Unless you really really did some research to get as close as possible.

Is PSA or any other commercial TPG going to use one? No, not for the forseeable future.

I saw a fake 51 Mantle over 40 years ago. Shopped around to several dealers, very nice looking card. My local shop had it and just handed it to me and asked what I thought.
After looking at it for a few minutes "Very nice looking card, too bad it's fake"
"OK, why is it fake"
"I can't put my finger on why, but it just is."
"That's what we think, and the other 5 dealers who have seen it"

That was probably 81? While I was either still at the printers or had just left for college. Maybe 82.
I think today I could figure out the why. I'm not sure PSA could, and would bet that card eventually ended up in a very high grade slab.

[steve B]

I voted yes. with the card in hand I'd be confident I could tell a lot about it.

To look at it another way, would you buy an ungraded Goudey common? Other than having Ruth instead of a benchwarmer, and a much bigger price tag, there is really no difference.

[packs]

Does anyone have an example of a convincing reprint they could show? There are several people who have suggested you could print a convincing 1933 Goudey today. Are there any examples? Seems like something somebody would have found worthwhile.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

Does anyone have an example of a convincing reprint they could show? There are several people who have suggested you could print a convincing 1933 Goudey today. Are there any examples? Seems like something somebody would have found worthwhile.

They’ve declined to show any of these examples so far. Let’s see them guys, very easy way to prove your point.

[packs]

It's just not ringing true with me. People suggesting this are reducing the issue to this relatively simple and rudimentary process that anyone can follow in X easy steps.

Where are the cards?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

It's just not ringing true with me. People suggesting this are reducing the issue to this relatively simple and rudimentary process that anyone can follow in X easy steps.

Where are the cards?

That’s because it is not true, it’s just hobby folklore. An old wives tale that has circulated in some form or other for decades. From the ‘perfect counterfeit’’s of T cards supposedly made in the 50’s or 60’s using original equipment or the version in the 70’s and 80’s featuring unnamed dealers and movers faking many of the big finds (though never specified which finds) of vintage material to more modern versions like the Black Swamp fakes story to todays version of how some also anonymous counterfeiters are or readily can make undetectable fakes.

Nobody in any of these alleged counterfeit groups can ever be given a name. No place, nothing one can possibly fact check or validate. No examples can ever be shown. I have been waiting most of my life for somebody to produce some evidence. It has never happened, because it is not true.

We very well may one day have something like this actually happen, but pretty much every hobby has false tales like this of perfect fakes or crimes or very dramatic events that are always vague, have no evidentiary basis or source, and are just imaginary gossip people made up or talked about and over time get to be stated as if the possibilities are actually true. An evidentiary basis is so much less interesting than gossip, and so the gossip just keeps going stated as if it is true. People by and large believe whatever they like to believe, disconnected from what evidence there is to actually support the notion.

[packs]

One person said they would have no qualms with purchasing raw cards. But they also cast doubt on what I said about it being pretty difficult or impossible to reprint an authentic Goudey card today. If you believed it was possible to print a convincing Goudey today, I would think you'd be more reserved about purchasing raw cards.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

It's just not ringing true with me. People suggesting this are reducing the issue to this relatively simple and rudimentary process that anyone can follow in X easy steps.

Where are the cards?

LOL, it isn't that it can't be easily done. It is having access to the equipment to do it without others knowing. You saying how impossible this is. Is like saying what ever you do for a job is impossible to do because we don't have the technology to do it.

Also I have posted pics of counterfeit cards in PSA slabs multiple times but nonbelievers like you seem to ignore those posts.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by bnorth

LOL, it isn't that it can't be easily done. It is having access to the equipment to do it without others knowing. You saying how impossible this is. Is like saying what ever you do for a job is impossible to do because we don't have the technology to do it.

Also I have posted pics of counterfeit cards in PSA slabs multiple times but nonbelievers like you seem to ignore those posts.

Is there anyone that truly believes PSA never slabbed a fake? They absolutely have. Like that Cracker Jack Mack that was beyond hilarious, and others that are less embarrassing. There are lots of fakes, that is not the argument anyone has been making. No one can produce an example of a very good one.


How about you post the evidence and names you claimed to have in PM, but demanded I give you a list of any crimes myself and everyone I know has ever or I think has ever committed in order to get this evidence from you? . Just post your evidence. If you cannot provide evidence, you are not going to convince anyone reasonable.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Is there anyone that truly believes PSA never slabbed a fake? They absolutely have. Like that Cracker Jack Mack that was beyond hilarious, and others that are less embarrassing. There are lots of fakes, that is not the argument anyone has been making. No one can produce an example of a very good one.


How about you post the evidence and names you claimed to have in PM, but demanded I give you a list of any crimes myself and everyone I know has ever or I think has ever committed in order to get this evidence from you? . Just post your evidence. If you cannot provide evidence, you are not going to convince anyone reasonable.

Posting about PMs on the forum, nice. Not only is that a POS move I believe it is against the few rules we have.

[Touch'EmAll]

I have resolved myself to the fact that I am not capable to detect the better card doctoring alterations. Yes, I stay away from narrow boarders, and anything that looks suspicious to me, but honestly that's about my limit. Congrats to those who have a better eye.

End of the day, I have faith PSA/SGC can do a better job than me at detecting doctoring. So, if I choose to stay in the hobby and make purchases, I have to accept the odds of alterations and forge ahead. So any card of significant value I will buy already graded and scrutinize the card with my own eye and knowledge - that's the best I can do.

[jingram058]

Uhhh...

I made a statement in another thread, in a different area of the forum:

The knowledge you guys have with respect to cards is insane. I have seen and read all of your complaints about the grading companies. Most would seem to be legitimate complaints.

Thus I asked: why doesn't someone on this forum buy some slabs and flips, and starting grading cards right here?

Any of the legalese can be answered by the attorneys who regularly post in these threads.

I was then informed that someone once did that very thing; someone named Bob who is no longer with us (RIP).

I highly doubt that any fakery would get past the knowledge base of this forum. Likewise, I believe cards would receive an honest grade, good or bad.

Think about it.

This might even convince someone like me, the advocate and champion of raw, to have some cards graded.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Posting about PMs on the forum, nice. Not only is that a POS move I believe it is against the few rules we have.

I do not see any rule that I cannot mention a PM related to a thread, only that I can't post a transcript without approval. The POS move is asking for a folder of incriminating material on everyone I have ever known in exchange for this evidence you allegedly have but refuse to disclose otherwise .

For the 50th time, where is the evidence for your claims of these easy fakes? Just post it instead of bizarre trade proposals or obfuscating and pretending people are arguing that PSA has never slabbed a fake or whatever phony straw man excuse you'll invent next. Just sop bullshitting and post it. It's such an easy way to prove your case.

[jmhumr]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

I would not buy raw at those potential price points.

I am not skilled enough to judge what looks at different levels of the grading and would be comfortable it was a real card but unsure as I value as a result

Same.

Not only is it too much of a gamble for me at that price point, but I'd be skeptical of someone selling a raw card in that range when they could easily have it graded and secure higher value and avoid any headaches. There are certainly times when a raw might intrigue me (estate sale, etc.), but without a compelling justification to ease my mind, I'd walk away.

[Bigdaddy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Not directed at anyone in particular, but I would bet at least some of you would not catch some of the more expert alterations that top of the profession card doctors are capable of.

And neither would the TPGs consistently. That's a real tough scenario when an alteration is (almost) undetectable.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by jingram058

Uhhh...

I made a statement in another thread, in a different area of the forum:

The knowledge you guys have with respect to cards is insane. I have seen and read all of your complaints about the grading companies. Most would seem to be legitimate complaints.

Thus I asked: why doesn't someone on this forum buy some slabs and flips, and starting grading cards right here?

Any of the legalese can be answered by the attorneys who regularly post in these threads.

I was then informed that someone once did that very thing; someone named Bob who is no longer with us (RIP).

I highly doubt that any fakery would get past the knowledge base of this forum. Likewise, I believe cards would receive an honest grade, good or bad.

Think about it.

This might even convince someone like me, the advocate and champion of raw, to have some cards graded.

I have considered it.
Designing my own slab and just going for it,or doing certificates like they do with Stamps.

My problem is hopeless disorganization. I'd probably end up with a highly variable turnaround time because I'd forget the backlog and do whatever came in today.

I also don't have what would be needed financially to maintain a database, especially with stuff people want today like QR codes.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by packs

One person said they would have no qualms with purchasing raw cards. But they also cast doubt on what I said about it being pretty difficult or impossible to reprint an authentic Goudey card today. If you believed it was possible to print a convincing Goudey today, I would think you'd be more reserved about purchasing raw cards.

That was probably me.

Theres an advantage older collectors have that seldom gets mentioned.
I "found" it a few years ago when we were discussing pretty much the same thing, and it was mentioned that experience handling the cards was important.
But I realized that when I was starting, lots of dealers at shows had stacks of low end Goudeys or pretty much any of the more common sets simply out on the table usually rubber banded.
So you could literally pick up and go through a few hundred at any show.

I also realized I hadn't seen that since the mid 80's. Yes there were stacks of cards, but fewer that were just loose. some were in pages, then sleeves, and toploaders, screwdowns, then grading came along.
not many collectors, or for that matter dealers have physically handled a lot of anything prewar outside some sort of holder.


As to it being easy, the level of difficulty would depend on the skill of the person doing it. I was around it and did some of the actual work occasionally for a bit over 2 years. With a bit of practice, and the equipment, yes, I could do a decent job of a Goudey. But I would have to spend maybe 5K on printing equipment, and practice a bit. And while the paper wouldn't be impossible it's not something I can just go pick up at Michaels.
A small print shop would have an easier time, the hard part is the color separations. Most counterfeits of modern cards that were done in the 80's failed because they made halftones of areas like border lines that were never halftones. A skilled small print shop could do it quicker.

I'm positive I've seen a convincing fake of an early 50's card, but being just a regular customer I wasn't in the know about who was shopping it around.

I don't know where it is, but I have one fake Goudey. The cardstock is right or very close, and it passed with a poor ebay scan. In hand though the printing is obviously done on a computer printer.

Bottom line is that while it's not hard for someone who knows how, it's not easy for someone who doesn't.

The only way I can think of to prove that is to setup a small print shop, and make a fake or two.... And that's not happening, I'd much rather spend the 5K i don't have on cards or stamps or bikes or beer, or ...... pretty much anything that wouldn't be likely to get me arrested.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by steve B

That was probably me.

Theres an advantage older collectors have that seldom gets mentioned.
I "found" it a few years ago when we were discussing pretty much the same thing, and it was mentioned that experience handling the cards was important.
But I realized that when I was starting, lots of dealers at shows had stacks of low end Goudeys or pretty much any of the more common sets simply out on the table usually rubber banded.
So you could literally pick up and go through a few hundred at any show.

I also realized I hadn't seen that since the mid 80's. Yes there were stacks of cards, but fewer that were just loose. some were in pages, then sleeves, and toploaders, screwdowns, then grading came along.
not many collectors, or for that matter dealers have physically handled a lot of anything prewar outside some sort of holder.


As to it being easy, the level of difficulty would depend on the skill of the person doing it. I was around it and did some of the actual work occasionally for a bit over 2 years. With a bit of practice, and the equipment, yes, I could do a decent job of a Goudey. But I would have to spend maybe 5K on printing equipment, and practice a bit. And while the paper wouldn't be impossible it's not something I can just go pick up at Michaels.
A small print shop would have an easier time, the hard part is the color separations. Most counterfeits of modern cards that were done in the 80's failed because they made halftones of areas like border lines that were never halftones. A skilled small print shop could do it quicker.

I'm positive I've seen a convincing fake of an early 50's card, but being just a regular customer I wasn't in the know about who was shopping it around.

I don't know where it is, but I have one fake Goudey. The cardstock is right or very close, and it passed with a poor ebay scan. In hand though the printing is obviously done on a computer printer.

Bottom line is that while it's not hard for someone who knows how, it's not easy for someone who doesn't.

The only way I can think of to prove that is to setup a small print shop, and make a fake or two.... And that's not happening, I'd much rather spend the 5K i don't have on cards or stamps or bikes or beer, or ...... pretty much anything that wouldn't be likely to get me arrested.

The bold part is what I think most can't comprehend. My favorite response is "if it can be done make me a 1952 Mickey Mantle". LOL, it is always a 52 Mantle.

Nothing against anyone that works in a print shop but it is just another simple job pretty much a anyone with half a brain can do. My great Uncle owned a print shop my whole life that employed between 20-30 people until he sold it around 10 years ago. Score had a plant close so many friends and family worked there the entire time it was open. Two of my best friends have worked in print shops their entire adult life. I know enough about the subject I know what is possible. I never once said there is a big ring of counterfeiters pumping out cards. I have repeatedly said how easily it WOULD be to do.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

So as of now, its 52 percent yes, 28 percent no, and 18 percent maybe.

When I posed this topic to my circle of 10 friends, it was 80 percent No and 20 percent yes. The yeses mostly gave answers like above.

The Nos said three things:

1. Concern over why a dealer would sell a 5k plus card raw.
2. No reason to buy. There are plenty of graded ones out there already.
3. Basically, not worth the risk.

FYI, I am in the Yes camp. I would have qualms purchasing the card in this scenario.

Update, it is now 49 percent yes, 32 percent no, and 18 percent maybe.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Update, it is now 49 percent yes, 32 percent no, and 18 percent maybe.

Our group might have a better idea on Goudey's than some other groups.

.

[tkd]

Yes, I would buy a raw Goudey Ruth but it would need to be discounted or have amazing eye appeal. There are enough of them around that buyers can be choosers.
If it's an extremely rare card I'm not as picky.

[7nohitter]

From a reputable dealer here, who would back it up?

Absolutely.