Next to 3000 hits? Maybe no one?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Your current players with 2000 or more.

1. Freddie Freeman (16, 35) 2381
2. Jose Altuve (15, 35) 2348
3. Andrew McCutchen (17, 38) 2239
4. Paul Goldschmidt (15, 37) 2160
5. Manny Machado (14, 32) 2029

Obviously only Freeman, Altuve and Machado have a chance.

[Belfast1933]

I think with the money still available to good players, why wouldn’t these guys play into their late 30’s and early 40’s?

If I had to bet, I think Altuve and Machado both have good chances to get to 3k

[rats60]

It depends on how many games they miss due to the lock out. After the 60 game covid season, a long lockout could prevent any of these guys from getting to 3000 hits.

[D. Bergin]

Altuve is slipping, they don't seem to like him in the field anymore, and he's not exactly an Ironman, so I think he's a real long shot.

I could see Freeman getting there if he wants to play long enough and stays relatively healthy.

Machado reminds me a lot of Adrian Beltre for some reason. I could see him grinding it out and getting to 3000 hits if he stays healthy for another 7-8 seasons or so.

If those guys don't make it, it's going to be a loooong wait for anybody else. Maybe Bobby Witt Jr. will still be going strong 10 years from now.

[cgjackson222]

Its obviously early times, but if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stays healthy he has a chance.

He has over career 1,000 hits and is only 26 and averaged 180 hits/season between 2021-2023.

[JustinD]

I am in the boat that there is not a current player I see doing it. The discussion about all the money available to players is a decent reason as to why for many it’s not an important item.

If you have hundreds of millions in your mid thirties, where is the incentive to miss family time, risk health and possibly do an ugly fade into obscurity by playing too long? The security was once a good reason to do it, now unless you have a huge money situation or an ugly divorce you can call it at a decent time and walk away secure for life.

Cabrera broke 3k, however the contract albatross he was for the money and the consistent injuries and poor hitting streaks from 2018 on made him a divisive player with the fan base here in Detroit. I personally think it hurt his reputation pushing it a few years too far. The local sports radio jocks basically had a daily discussion on cutting him for the exemption on the regular.

[jbhofmann]

Machado could quietly go 500/3000.

150 hits for 7 years gets him to 3000
20 HR for 7 years gets him to 500

7 years gets him in there before 40.

His defense mixed with that is a wild combo and he typically doesn't get much fanfare

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by jbhofmann

Machado could quietly go 500/3000.

150 hits for 7 years gets him to 3000
20 HR for 7 years gets him to 500

7 years gets him in there before 40.

His defense mixed with that is a wild combo and he typically doesn't get much fanfare

Machado only averaged 158 hits per season over the past 4 years (before this one) at age 28-31 so it seems a stretch to think he could average 150 a season as he gets older. More likely is that he would need maybe 2 more seasons playing which isn't impossible if he stays reasonably healthy and wants to do it.

[packs]

Jose Ramirez might have an outside shot. Should finish the season with somewhere between 1650 and 1700 hits. He’s 32 and more or less is good for 150 games a season. He doesn’t seem to be slowing down either. Currently in line for his third 30-30 season as a third baseman. He’s out of this world.

[Brent G.]

I agree with Bobby Witt Jr. -- the guy lives for baseball and I can see him playing a very long time. He could steal a lot more bases, but I think limiting his attempts has kept him healthy. He could go on a real tear for the next decade.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Jose Ramirez might have an outside shot. Should finish the season with somewhere between 1650 and 1700 hits. He’s 32 and more or less is good for 150 games a season. He doesn’t seem to be slowing down either. Currently in line for his third 30-30 season as a third baseman. He’s out of this world.

I thought about him and also Betts as possibilities but they would have to remain really productive into their very late 30s which seems relatively unlikely. Machado with 2000 already at age 32 seems more likely although still a longshot IMO. That said, Ramirez for sure is a great and underappreciated player.

[bigfanNY]

Altuve and Machado both look like they have a real shot. Altuve will end the season needing 600 hits with 5 years till 40. It would be a shame if a lockout derailed their chances. As much as I hate Altuve he is an amazing player and fun to watch if he's not playing my Yankees.

[bnorth]

The GOAT Mike Trout will get there.

[packs]

Trea Turner could be a sleeper. He’s 32 like Betts but is about 300 hits short. However, he’s on an upward trend whereas Betts seems to have lost something this year. Currently leading the NL in hits for a possible third time.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by packs

Trea Turner could be a sleeper. He’s 32 like Betts but is about 300 hits short. However, he’s on an upward trend whereas Betts seems to have lost something this year. Currently leading the NL in hits for a possible third time.

Turner only has 1494 hits and is 32. He would have to average 150 hits per year until he's 42. Seems unlikely.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Turner only has 1494 hits and is 32. He would have to average 150 hits per year until he's 42. Seems unlikely.

I recently picked up his card as he now has a good chance to end up with some nice career numbers, but 3000 hits seems unlikely to me as well.

I am surprised by Betts' year to date, expected better of him.

[packs]

Definitely would be tough but he gets up into the 170-195 range when fully healthy and age doesn’t seem to slowing him. He’s swiped 28 bags so far this year too. Maybe there are some 200 hit seasons ahead of him.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by packs

Definitely would be tough but he gets up into the 170-195 range when fully healthy and age doesn’t seem to slowing him. He’s swiped 28 bags so far this year too. Maybe there are some 200 hit seasons ahead of him.

His next 200 hit season will be his first. As a Phillies fan, I'd love to see a bunch of them, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Here's something interesting (to me anyhow). The two best players with RCs in 2015 are both shortstops, Lindor and Correa. Same for 2016 -- Turner and Seager. The odds have to be somewhat against that.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by jayshum

His next 200 hit season will be his first. As a Phillies fan, I'd love to see a bunch of them, but I'm not holding my breath.

Trea Turner has 14 hits in his last 5 games. If he keeps up that pace, I will change my opinion on him getting to 3000.

[packs]

He had seasons of 195 and 194. He’s up to 158 now and halfway to 3,000.

[D. Bergin]

There's a bunch of guys on the 3000 hit club who never got to 200 for a single season...so it's not a prerequisite if you are able to stick around long enough.

There may be the catch though.

Money might be an incentive for players to stick around longer nowadays, but analytics (both monetarily and statistically) is a reason owners and GM's may not want to hang on to a player long past their expiration date, just to get to those milestones.

Everything is about "efficiency" nowadays. Teams are now willing to DFA guys on huge contracts just to open up a roster spot.

Miguel Cabrera hanging on for 7 Replacement level and below seasons on a legacy contract with the Tigers could very well be one of the last exceptions to that we see.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by packs

He had seasons of 195 and 194. He’s up to 158 now and halfway to 3,000.

He's played 10 seasons (not counting a brief appearance in 2015) so he's averaged around 150 hits per season. By the end of this season, maybe that's up to 155. He's signed for 8 more years (until age 40) so he will need to average close to 180 hits per season as he ages to get to 3000 by the time his current contract expires. Is it possible? Sure, and as a Phillies fan, I hope it happens, but realistically, it seems unlikely that he would do that much better in his mid to late 30s than he did in his 20s. If he's reasonably close to 3000, maybe he signs another contract to try to hang on and get there.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jayshum

His next 200 hit season will be his first. As a Phillies fan, I'd love to see a bunch of them, but I'm not holding my breath.

His next 200 hit season, IF he has one, will also be his last. I don't think his chances are realistic. Machado has a much better chance, and even he is very far from a lock.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Freeman just a couple shy of 2400 now. Still at the top his game or close, hitting .300.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

There's a bunch of guys on the 3000 hit club who never got to 200 for a single season...so it's not a prerequisite if you are able to stick around long enough.

There may be the catch though.

Money might be an incentive for players to stick around longer nowadays, but analytics (both monetarily and statistically) is a reason owners and GM's may not want to hang on to a player long past their expiration date, just to get to those milestones.

Everything is about "efficiency" nowadays. Teams are now willing to DFA guys on huge contracts just to open up a roster spot.

Miguel Cabrera hanging on for 7 Replacement level and below seasons on a legacy contract with the Tigers could very well be one of the last exceptions to that we see.

Ichiro had 8 or 9 lousy years compared to replacement level. He was worth it for bad teams to help sell tickets though.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Ichiro had 8 or 9 lousy years compared to replacement level. He was worth it for bad teams to help sell tickets though.

Ichiro though, was at least a serviceable utility outfielder at the end of his career, who got paid like a serviceable utility outfielder.

He also had a nice little comeback season in 2016 in Miami. Not mindblowing, but much better then he had been trending.

That said, how many of the guys left chasing 3000 right now, could be considered "ticket sellers"?

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Ichiro though, was at least a serviceable utility outfielder at the end of his career, who got paid like a serviceable utility outfielder.

He also had a nice little comeback season in 2016 in Miami. Not mindblowing, but much better then he had been trending.

That said, how many of the guys left chasing 3000 right now, could be considered "ticket sellers"?

Freddie Freeman is signed through 2027. If he stays healthy and near his current level of production, he should have at least 2700 hits by then at the age of 38. He would probably need 2 or 3 more seasons to get to 3000. How he's performing through 2027 will determine how likely it is that a team is willing to sign him for that long.

Jose Altuve is signed through 2029 (age 39). If he stays healthy and near his current level of production, he could be already at or very close to 3000 hits. Even if his production drops, it's unlikely the Astros would release him before his contract is up although his playing time could drop (and therefore is possible hit total) by the end of his contract. If he's within striking distance of 3000 at the end of 2029, it seems likely he tries to play another year to try to get there.

Manny Machado is signed through 2033 (age 41) which is 8 more seasons. He's going to need less than 950 hits after this season to get to 3000 which is an average of just 118 per season at most. As with Altuve, it's unlikely he gets released even if his production drops.

Of the 3 players closest to 3000, none of them really need to be "ticket sellers" to have a shot at 3000. Machado and Altuve are possibly already signed long enough to get there, and Freeman may still be productive enough when he is looking for a new contract that a team will sign him for more than just a ticket draw.

[Fred]

I'm thinking Manny if he doesn't get hurt and miss a lot of time.