Next to 3000 hits? Maybe no one?

[packs]

He had seasons of 195 and 194. He’s up to 158 now and halfway to 3,000.

[D. Bergin]

There's a bunch of guys on the 3000 hit club who never got to 200 for a single season...so it's not a prerequisite if you are able to stick around long enough.

There may be the catch though.

Money might be an incentive for players to stick around longer nowadays, but analytics (both monetarily and statistically) is a reason owners and GM's may not want to hang on to a player long past their expiration date, just to get to those milestones.

Everything is about "efficiency" nowadays. Teams are now willing to DFA guys on huge contracts just to open up a roster spot.

Miguel Cabrera hanging on for 7 Replacement level and below seasons on a legacy contract with the Tigers could very well be one of the last exceptions to that we see.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

There's a bunch of guys on the 3000 hit club who never got to 200 for a single season...so it's not a prerequisite if you are able to stick around long enough.

There may be the catch though.

Money might be an incentive for players to stick around longer nowadays, but analytics (both monetarily and statistically) is a reason owners and GM's may not want to hang on to a player long past their expiration date, just to get to those milestones.

Everything is about "efficiency" nowadays. Teams are now willing to DFA guys on huge contracts just to open up a roster spot.

Miguel Cabrera hanging on for 7 Replacement level and below seasons on a legacy contract with the Tigers could very well be one of the last exceptions to that we see.

Ichiro had 8 or 9 lousy years compared to replacement level. He was worth it for bad teams to help sell tickets though.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Ichiro had 8 or 9 lousy years compared to replacement level. He was worth it for bad teams to help sell tickets though.

Ichiro though, was at least a serviceable utility outfielder at the end of his career, who got paid like a serviceable utility outfielder.

He also had a nice little comeback season in 2016 in Miami. Not mindblowing, but much better then he had been trending.

That said, how many of the guys left chasing 3000 right now, could be considered "ticket sellers"?

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Ichiro though, was at least a serviceable utility outfielder at the end of his career, who got paid like a serviceable utility outfielder.

He also had a nice little comeback season in 2016 in Miami. Not mindblowing, but much better then he had been trending.

That said, how many of the guys left chasing 3000 right now, could be considered "ticket sellers"?

Freddie Freeman is signed through 2027. If he stays healthy and near his current level of production, he should have at least 2700 hits by then at the age of 38. He would probably need 2 or 3 more seasons to get to 3000. How he's performing through 2027 will determine how likely it is that a team is willing to sign him for that long.

Jose Altuve is signed through 2029 (age 39). If he stays healthy and near his current level of production, he could be already at or very close to 3000 hits. Even if his production drops, it's unlikely the Astros would release him before his contract is up although his playing time could drop (and therefore is possible hit total) by the end of his contract. If he's within striking distance of 3000 at the end of 2029, it seems likely he tries to play another year to try to get there.

Manny Machado is signed through 2033 (age 41) which is 8 more seasons. He's going to need less than 950 hits after this season to get to 3000 which is an average of just 118 per season at most. As with Altuve, it's unlikely he gets released even if his production drops.

Of the 3 players closest to 3000, none of them really need to be "ticket sellers" to have a shot at 3000. Machado and Altuve are possibly already signed long enough to get there, and Freeman may still be productive enough when he is looking for a new contract that a team will sign him for more than just a ticket draw.

[Fred]

I'm thinking Manny if he doesn't get hurt and miss a lot of time.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by packs

He had seasons of 195 and 194. He’s up to 158 now and halfway to 3,000.

He's played 10 seasons (not counting a brief appearance in 2015) so he's averaged around 150 hits per season. By the end of this season, maybe that's up to 155. He's signed for 8 more years (until age 40) so he will need to average close to 180 hits per season as he ages to get to 3000 by the time his current contract expires. Is it possible? Sure, and as a Phillies fan, I hope it happens, but realistically, it seems unlikely that he would do that much better in his mid to late 30s than he did in his 20s. If he's reasonably close to 3000, maybe he signs another contract to try to hang on and get there.