First $Billion$ Player....Elly de la Cruz?

[nat]

CPI for the past year was 2.7%, excluding food and energy it was 3.3%. Call it three percent. Assuming 3% annual inflation over the next six years, if Soto had signed his contract in 2030, it would be worth about $910m.

(Or $861 if the Fed hits their 2% target.)

If we bake-in expected inflation between now and when the baseball execs are predicting a billion dollar player, Soto is already pretty close. They're really predicting an increase in baseball salaries of about 10-15% in real terms over the next six years. That's not a very aggressive prediction. Six years ago Mike Trout had the top salary, at $34m; David Price and Miguel Cabrera were at $30m. Those are still healthy salaries, but not at the top of the scales anymore. This past year there were four players above $40, and tenth place was Giancarlo Stanton at $32.

As for who it will be: my guess is no one currently active. They would need to be a free agent you would want to sign for 15 years (or more), which means they would need to hit free agency extremely young. De la Cruz will be 28. He's great and all, but it's hard to imagine someone wanting to sign him through age 43. Gunnar Henderson has been better so far, but is a year older (so doesn't benefit from an extra year of salary inflation). Skenes is the same age as de la Cruz, but it's hard to imagine a 15 year contract for a pitcher. It's got to be someone who isn't in the majors yet.