First $Billion$ Player....Elly de la Cruz?

todeen · #1 12-14-2024, 01:07 PM

What struck me from the article was that it was so close to happening this year. They say it's 5 years away, but who knows, really. The agents and execs just made it sound like it's not an if, just a when. I agreed with a previous post, Witt's contact sure seems like a real bargain. Is it through his arbitration years, did he have opt outs, or is he locked in long term?

Elly has a lot of potential. He was worth 5.2 WAR this year, so by the metrics of the exec in the article (1 WAR = $10m), that's a $52m player the Reds are currently paying just $800k. I wish they would take those book keeping savings and go all in for a WS.

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D. Bergin · #2 12-14-2024, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by todeen

What struck me from the article was that it was so close to happening this year. They say it's 5 years away, but who knows, really. The agents and execs just made it sound like it's not an if, just a when. I agreed with a previous post, Witt's contact sure seems like a real bargain. Is it through his arbitration years, did he have opt outs, or is he locked in long term?

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I think Witt has an opt out at age 30. Depends on how his career goes on whether he takes it or not.

packs · #3 12-14-2024, 03:43 PM

Soto is not just a young guy hitting free agency though. Not just anyone is going to get a billion dollars. I think if Soto were 5 years younger and starting his career now he would be the billion dollar guy. He’s a generational talent but there are only so many who achieve that status so young.

All that to say being a free agent in 2030 isn’t going to get you a billion dollars. You have to be as good or better than a Soto or A-Rod.

Balticfox · #4 12-14-2024, 05:01 PM

I'll be impressed when Elly de la Cruz becomes the new Charlie Hustle in Cincinnati and starts running hard to first after a walk. I'm surprised that the Reds' Manager Francona and player captains haven't made that a team rule yet.

todeen · #5 12-14-2024, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Balticfox

I'll be impressed when Elly de la Cruz becomes the new Charlie Hustle in Cincinnati and starts running hard to first after a walk. I'm surprised that the Reds' Manager Francona and player captains haven't made that a team rule yet.

It's the Robinson Cano rule.

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nat · #6 12-16-2024, 11:57 AM

CPI for the past year was 2.7%, excluding food and energy it was 3.3%. Call it three percent. Assuming 3% annual inflation over the next six years, if Soto had signed his contract in 2030, it would be worth about $910m.

(Or $861 if the Fed hits their 2% target.)

If we bake-in expected inflation between now and when the baseball execs are predicting a billion dollar player, Soto is already pretty close. They're really predicting an increase in baseball salaries of about 10-15% in real terms over the next six years. That's not a very aggressive prediction. Six years ago Mike Trout had the top salary, at $34m; David Price and Miguel Cabrera were at $30m. Those are still healthy salaries, but not at the top of the scales anymore. This past year there were four players above $40, and tenth place was Giancarlo Stanton at $32.

As for who it will be: my guess is no one currently active. They would need to be a free agent you would want to sign for 15 years (or more), which means they would need to hit free agency extremely young. De la Cruz will be 28. He's great and all, but it's hard to imagine someone wanting to sign him through age 43. Gunnar Henderson has been better so far, but is a year older (so doesn't benefit from an extra year of salary inflation). Skenes is the same age as de la Cruz, but it's hard to imagine a 15 year contract for a pitcher. It's got to be someone who isn't in the majors yet.

Seven · #7 12-16-2024, 12:47 PM

There are few, if any players in the history of Free Agency that would ever approach 1 Billion. Soto was one of them. Generational hitting talent, but lacking in the field/on the base paths. I said this before in the Soto thread, I truly don't think any player is worth that amount, but I'm beating a dead horse.

Within the Last 25 years? I think small group of players, had they played in todays game/financial climate would get the Billion dollar contract, had they hit free agency at the age of 25. Trout and ARod both come to mind, as the numbers they were putting up their first few seasons in the big leagues were absurd and they were both five tool threats. Albert Pujols as well, based off of his offensive production alone, as he set the world on fire offensively the moment he entered the league, and would've most likely have won 2-3 MVPs had it not been for Barry Bonds.

Point is, I do not think Elly will sniff 1 Billion Dollars. He's not in that category.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #8 12-17-2024, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

Soto is not just a young guy hitting free agency though. Not just anyone is going to get a billion dollars. I think if Soto were 5 years younger and starting his career now he would be the billion dollar guy. He�s a generational talent but there are only so many who achieve that status so young.

All that to say being a free agent in 2030 isn�t going to get you a billion dollars. You have to be as good or better than a Soto or A-Rod.

This is my problem. I don't see him as a generational talent. To me a generational talent is a model of production AND consistency. The most recent 26 year old I would call a "generational talent" was Trout. Not one guy since Trout hits that descriptor for me.

Lots of great players, Betts, Harper, Judge etc. but to be a "generational talent" you have to be pretty much unique to your era.

packs · #9 12-17-2024, 08:24 PM

I think Trout is the better player but their stats through age 25 are not that far apart. What I think makes Soto special is his ability to get on base and score runs without striking out. He has scored 655 career runs to 696 strike outs. Soto is extremely disciplined and especially for his age.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #10 12-17-2024, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packs

I think Trout is the better player but their stats through age 25 are not that far apart. What I think makes Soto special is his ability to get on base and score runs without striking out. He has scored 655 career runs to 696 strike outs. Soto is extremely disciplined and especially for his age.

It's an opinion thing to be sure, but Trout was, by WAR, the best player in the league 5 of his first 7 seasons and missed out on one of the other two seasons despite putting up a 9.9 WAR.

Soto has done so once with a less than stellar 7.1, a total Trout only failed to better one time (he had a 6.9)

I also don't understand the hatred of strikeouts. While they can't ever advance a runner it's pretty rare for them to result in losing a runner.

Trout grounded into 48 Double plays his first 7 full seasons. (I am not counting his cup of coffee age 19 call up which would raise the total to 50) Soto has hit into 84 in his first 7 and one of those was a VERY short Covid season. That's more than Trout has in his entire career by a decent margin.

Since they have a similar OBP (and Trout was actually ahead of Soto at the end of 7 seasons) where's the advantage in not striking out? I would argue that making bad contact and grounding into a much higher rate of double plays but avoiding a strikeout is a productivity negative.

None of this is to say that Soto isn't a stud, but like the other guys I mentioned, he doesn't live up to my definition of a generational talent.

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