Biggest changes in the past 5 years?

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

David...you are a lucky man my friend!!!!! You totally missed paying ultra high prices for tougher types of almost any kind...in the last 5 years...

Hi Pete,

I agree with your specific set examples, but I disagree with this summary.

If David was buying pre-war cards up to late 2007, and then took a break from 2008-2012, I think he missed an amazing time to be a buyer.

When you compare prices on almost anything from late 2007 to now, the current price is a whole lot less. With some exceptions Pete mentioned (T206 backs, scraps, and the biggies, Ruth RC, etc.), prices have been way down. I think 2009-2010 were fantastic years to buy.

I also had a little hiatus (between 2005-2008) and I am sooooooo thankful in a general sense that I wasn't buying in those years. When I re-entered the hobby and got VCP, I was astounded by the prices people were paying in 2006-2007. I spent quite a lot of time on VCP and it was a real eye-opener for me as I got back into the hobby.

By 2009, I would sometimes buy a card for 1/5 of what the exact card sold for in 2006-2007!

I feel that prices have recovered somewhat now, but not approaching 2006-2007 levels.

Another way to confirm this is go back over the auction archives at REA. You'll see how many card prices took a dive from 2009-on.

In answer to David's questions about E-cards, they are generally quite a bit off of their peak prices from pre-2008. E90-1 is soft, E91 surprisingly has been rising, E92 is generally soft, but it depends on the back, E93 is soft, E94 is strong, E95 is soft, E96 is holding, E97 varies from strong to holding, E98...you need to learn about the Black Swamp Find, if you have not yet. E101 and E102 have been soft. E103 has been surprisingly somewhat soft. E107 remains strong. 1914 Cracker Jack is gaining strength. 1915 Cracker Jack is quite soft.

Some other cards that are way off their highs from 2006-2007:

D cards
T3
T205
Goudey

I think the sale of the "Louisiana Find" at REA showed T215 Red Cross are softer now than in prior years.

Of course these are all generalizations, but might give you some flavor for what you missed.

Cheers,
Blair

[T206Collector]

Welcome back!

I think T206 SLers have stayed relatively constant. What you do see is price reflecting the sophistication of T206 buyers, who understand that Tenney and Ganley are tougher than Grimshaw and Stone, e.g.

You can tell where the market is softest by comparing BINs to auctions on ebay. You'll still see a bunch of T206 auctions, but not so much in caramel cards, where demand has definitely slipped. Caramels are a good buy now, but sellers are still holding on to the higher prices, probably because they have too much into them.

Oh, and signed T206 cards are now extremely hard to find. In 2007, ebay had maybe 30-40 auctions of them because of the Pittsburgh Find. This year, I am still waiting for just one.

[drc]

Some things never change. I'm still beautiful and brilliant.

[vintagecpa]

I took some time away from collecting at various points. From my observation, I have noticed the following changes. 1. Rare-backs and rare colors for some Carmel issues have gone wild. 2. Red Sox Ruth cards now require a second mortgage. 3. The number of Unscrupulous people doesn't seem to ever go down on EBay. 4. Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, etc. hold their value. 5. When you are bidding on a high-value card, you better find a picture of the same card in a past auction or on VCP to make sure it is the same card. 6. The infield fly rule now goes back to the warning track. (sorry, just a bitter Braves fan).

[Brian Van Horn]

Guys,

What I am seeing is fewer collectors. The ones that remain, I have known for a good percentage of them for years.

Also, it is 2012. We are talking in a lot of cases cards that are a 100 years old. Fame is fleeting. Ruth, Cobb, Johnson, Wagner and Mathewson (the original five HoF inductees) being the exceptions.

Finally, what are the three sets that get the most attention from a new collector? T206, Cracker Jack and Goudey. Why? The colors.

So, the question is how to make collecting appealing to a younger generation of fans who have a lot of distractions.

The profile you need of a collector is someone who is curious about history, who is also a huge sports fan, especially baseball. He then needs to expand that curiosity to other sets and to develop a fondness for black and white. Otherwise.......

[sesop]

Exactly- how to make collecting appeal to a younger generation. That's my concern. I'm excited to get back into the hobby, but in a weird way, am kind of discouraged by the discount pricing- meaning- the market, in general, seems soft. As nice as it is to think that the e98 Hippo Vaughn I sold for $500 could be bought back for half that today, part of me worries that even though its a bargain, if my kids don't care about my cards wne I die and they sell it, they'll get $12, so the "bargain" I jumped on was actually a loser. If I do this in scale, picking up scads of cards because they're so "cheap" nowadays, I'd be upset that I sold at the peak of the market, got back in as it was declining, and rode the wave to the basement. Again- I'm not into cards "for the money," but I'd be lying if I said there wasn't some semblance of hope that at the very least, the cards will keep their value better than, say, a hamburger.

Yeah- so many young people with so many distractions, and who the hell cares about Gordon Hickman (T206 SLer) a hundred years later? (Did anyone care about him much in 1911?)

As excited as I was to get back in, I hate to admit it, but I kind of have cold feet now. This is a hobby, but its also an obsession. I know I won't be happy with one or two cards- I buy what I like, so I'll have a collection, which costs money, soon enough if I get back into it, and something about the notion of less people having less money to spend on cards, less general interest, etc, makes me worry that it can l only go downhill- which may be ok if my taste was crappy condition 1990's cards, but I like nice, 100+ year old cardboard, and I'd be remiss to start "investing" in something that will only be worth less (not "worthless") however many years down the road.

Am I the only one in this boat?

As for the black swamp find- I just checked it out. My house is old- why haven't I ever found a box of e98s lying around? Even beat up and creased and stained with caramel would be fine. Ha!

It's really fascinating to come back after such a long break. I truly do appreciate all of your input and am starting to get a sense of what the hobby looks like from the board, VCP, various auction houses, recent eBay prices, BINs, and stuff ending tonight, etc. No matter what, this is an amazing hobby and even if I don't get back into it with the veracity I had years ago, surely I'll find a few cards which suit my fancy- although the E105 Mello Mint Knight was pulled out from under me last night at B-L...

Thanks again. This is great stuff!

[Big Ben]

I think that some of the recent realized prices in the hobby are a result of the demographics of collectors, but I also think that you need to consider the economy over the past few years. I know how you feel about getting back into the hobby after a prolonged absence. I would dabble with things here and there, but for the most part, I was away from the hobby for 20 years! Talk about a lot of catching up!

[Leon]

In today's environment you really have to be careful on the buy side of our gems. As long as you can get the card at a good price then the resale, if you must, wont be too bad. As mentioned before, it's the cards that were bought 4-8 yrs ago that are under water, for the most part (with exceptions to the cards mentioned that have gone up in value). I am having the time of my life right now as it's a great time to be collecting. There are plenty of 20 somethings and 30 somethings coming into our space too. I would say we are safe for the next generation or two, as far as the population of vintage collectors....after that I don't know. Nice posts in this thread. Welcome back David, glad I was able to help a bit.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by vintagecpa

*** 6. The infield fly rule now goes back to the warning track. (sorry, just a bitter Braves fan).

Right on! That ball was out in no-man's land, where a lot of "you've got it" "no, you take it" habitually occurs between outfielder and infielder--quite a few of the balls hit there drop, and thus it was ludicrous to contend that it could have been caught with reasonable effort. Secondly, the rule was intended to prevent the fielder from intentionally dropping a pop-fly to bring about an easy doubleplay. There is no way that intentionally allowing that ball to land in that location could have produced an easy double play. The infield fly rule had no application there at all.

But back to the main subject of the thread--I think that what we've seen in the last 5 years, along with the down economy reducing discretionary income, is the fact that collecting trends and the popularity of various cards and sets has and will continue to change over time. The same thing happened repeatedly in coins, which have had an organized market since the late 1850's, far longer than the organized baseball card market has been around. Items that rode the crest of the popularity wave in one decade slipped to a position way down the list in the next! Various issues in coins consequenty waxed and waned in value, and continue to be subject to price cycles (although truly rare and significant pieces in both collecting fields have tended to bear consistently upwards in price, sometimes astonishingly so--1914 Baltimore News Ruth, anyone? And sometimes the shear overwhelming significance of a card alone is enough--see the M101 Ruth rookie, a card that might be characterized as somewhat scarce, but is certainly not rare). Look for emerging significant rarities (I like the T206 rare-back HOF'ers here, although I don't collect T206, along with a number of the rare cards I do own of upper tier HOF'ers but won't tout here) to continute to increase in price dramatically. The only real trick is to spot them before they get out of reach price-wise!

I certainly share your appreciation for the expertise of a vast number of the members of this board, and its good to have you back!

Larry