Modern day Helmar cards--will they gain in value?

btcarfagno · #1 07-02-2015, 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glchen

No, they will not go up in value. For most cards to have value, they need to be issued during the player's playing days. If not, then the card needs to be part of a major set (e.g., Topps) or contained game used memorabilia or autos. Helmar cards fit none of these criteria.

Not necessarily true in all instances. The Laughlin cards from the 1970's of the Negro League players have appreciated substantially in value over the years.

To C

Peter_Spaeth · #2 07-02-2015, 09:39 AM

I think these are very well done but in the end they are just fantasy cards and I am skeptical that they will appreciate in value.

packs · #3 07-02-2015, 09:51 AM

I like the artwork a lot but I can't see spending more than a few dollars on them. Most of the players featured have cards issued during their playing careers. For players who didn't have many cards, I could see there being a premium. But I can't see a Helmar card retaining more value than a card issued during a career.

iwantitiwinit · #4 07-02-2015, 03:21 PM

No chance. Simple rules of economics, low demand combined with at a minimum adequate supply equals falling prices.

Chris-Counts · #5 07-02-2015, 03:40 PM

No. They're beautiful cards, but as long we don't how many of each can be printed, collectors will never take them seriously.

sirraffles · #6 07-02-2015, 04:19 PM

Those are good criticisms and put me in an awkward position. I find myself wanting to argue that Helmar cards have a high investment potential when I've already said, correctly, that no one knows. Maybe that impulse is my well-known contrarian nature speaking or maybe a little bit of ego. Probably both. And another way I'm in an awkward position is that I don't want to be too successful in my argument because the size of my little business is exactly where I'd like to keep it. If anything, I am already too busy and don't want to expand or be tempted to.

The only thing we can confidently say about the future is that it won't be the same as today. Many of the rules and guidelines that we use will go by the wayside. We regularly see evidence of this now. Big companies and their standard ideas and practices collapse, only to be replaced by no-name companies with fresh ideas and new products that would have been ridiculed just a few years before. It is a constant revolution out there and, yes, a bit of a scary landscape for investors. But it is a great place for consumers, with new horizons and exciting new products.

More specific to our hobby, remember that many T206 cards, righteously loved by collectors today, ended up on the sidewalks outside of smoke shops. No one would have considered them investment worthy. Similar stories can be told about many, if not most, old sets. And most of those companies, once at the top of the market, are long gone. Taste changes, too. Unfortunately, it is possible that collecting cards at all will someday be comparable to how we look today at collecting, say, matchbooks or thimbles. Ho-hum. Cards have the advantage of being personality-driven, to a large extent. But will anyone really remember Christy Mathewson in another 50 years, or 100? I wonder about that. And if the lives and stories of those stars becomes too remote for people to identify with in a couple of generations, than one can pretty much write off the hobby as an investment at all.

But back to Helmar and the rest of the art card market. Most of our series are limited to around 20 sets. That is a very small quantity and they will all sell out. In twenty years if just 25 collectors (just 25!) wanted to collect a series then the prices would rise by a corresponding, or larger, percentage. That's all for now, Charles

sirraffles · #7 07-02-2015, 04:25 PM

Chris... around 20, often less. But it is interesting that you are holding only Helmar to this rule. No one has any idea how many cards were printed of most, if not all, of the cards that you presumably collect. In any case, they were printed almost uniformly in quantities exponentially greater than what we do.

Robert... I'd argue against low demand and adequate supply. But take a look at your econ book again, your conclusion is, in any case, off.

Thanks guys. Charles Mandel

ls7plus · #8 07-03-2015, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sirraffles

Those are good criticisms and put me in an awkward position. I find myself wanting to argue that Helmar cards have a high investment potential when I've already said, correctly, that no one knows. Maybe that impulse is my well-known contrarian nature speaking or maybe a little bit of ego. Probably both. And another way I'm in an awkward position is that I don't want to be too successful in my argument because the size of my little business is exactly where I'd like to keep it. If anything, I am already too busy and don't want to expand or be tempted to.

The only thing we can confidently say about the future is that it won't be the same as today. Many of the rules and guidelines that we use will go by the wayside. We regularly see evidence of this now. Big companies and their standard ideas and practices collapse, only to be replaced by no-name companies with fresh ideas and new products that would have been ridiculed just a few years before. It is a constant revolution out there and, yes, a bit of a scary landscape for investors. But it is a great place for consumers, with new horizons and exciting new products.

More specific to our hobby, remember that many T206 cards, righteously loved by collectors today, ended up on the sidewalks outside of smoke shops. No one would have considered them investment worthy. Similar stories can be told about many, if not most, old sets. And most of those companies, once at the top of the market, are long gone. Taste changes, too. Unfortunately, it is possible that collecting cards at all will someday be comparable to how we look today at collecting, say, matchbooks or thimbles. Ho-hum. Cards have the advantage of being personality-driven, to a large extent. But will anyone really remember Christy Mathewson in another 50 years, or 100? I wonder about that. And if the lives and stories of those stars becomes too remote for people to identify with in a couple of generations, than one can pretty much write off the hobby as an investment at all.

But back to Helmar and the rest of the art card market. Most of our series are limited to around 20 sets. That is a very small quantity and they will all sell out. In twenty years if just 25 collectors (just 25!) wanted to collect a series then the prices would rise by a corresponding, or larger, percentage. That's all for now, Charles

For those of us to whom the player on the card means something, the card, to be deemed worthy of significant value, must be like a little time capsule, which not only connects you to the player by capturing an instant of his life, but also takes you back to the time. Ask yourself if if this criteria is met,

Respectfully,

Larry

Peter_Spaeth · #9 07-03-2015, 04:46 PM

"More specific to our hobby, remember that many T206 cards, righteously loved by collectors today, ended up on the sidewalks outside of smoke shops. No one would have considered them investment worthy. Similar stories can be told about many, if not most, old sets."

And that is precisely the point. Those cards are valuable today for the very reason that a small percentage of them, for a variety of reasons, survived. I don't believe you can just create value by manufacturing scarcity in an era when there is a fully developed market for cards and the overwhelming majority are preserved in original condition. I think the same holds true for all the allegedly rare versions of modern cards, although at least some of those have some significance as rookie cards and not fantasy cards.

That said, they are well done.

Leon · #10 07-04-2015, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

"More specific to our hobby, remember that many T206 cards, righteously loved by collectors today, ended up on the sidewalks outside of smoke shops. No one would have considered them investment worthy. Similar stories can be told about many, if not most, old sets."

And that is precisely the point. Those cards are valuable today for the very reason that a small percentage of them, for a variety of reasons, survived. I don't believe you can just create value by manufacturing scarcity in an era when there is a fully developed market for cards and the overwhelming majority are preserved in original condition. I think the same holds true for all the allegedly rare versions of modern cards, although at least some of those have some significance as rookie cards and not fantasy cards.

That said, they are well done.

+1. I think they might hold their value as beautiful art pieces but collecting them according to man-made scarcity usually doesn't increase value in my experiences. Great artwork and great organization. Wonderful product. And I ordered the new magazine too.....

glchen · #11 07-13-2015, 03:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Not necessarily true in all instances. The Laughlin cards from the 1970's of the Negro League players have appreciated substantially in value over the years.

To C

I think for many of the Laughlin cards, these were some of the first cards of Negro League players who never had any cards, outside some exceptionally rare RPPC's, issued during their playing days. So, I don't think you can compare Helmar to the Laughlin set.

The other issue with Helmar cards, and the creator can correct me if I'm wrong, is that I don't believe these have been properly licensed. For example, in order to issue Babe Ruth cards, you need to have a license from the estate of Ruth's family, which is one of the reasons that recent Panini cards do not have Ruth in their set because they could not obtain the licenses. Without the proper licenses, it is doubtful that the major TPG's would holder these cards, which would put a severe crimp in their future appreciation potential.

JustinD · #12 07-13-2015, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glchen

The other issue with Helmar cards, and the creator can correct me if I'm wrong, is that I don't believe these have been properly licensed. For example, in order to issue Babe Ruth cards, you need to have a license from the estate of Ruth's family, which is one of the reasons that recent Panini cards do not have Ruth in their set because they could not obtain the licenses. Without the proper licenses, it is doubtful that the major TPG's would holder these cards, which would put a severe crimp in their future appreciation potential.

This is one of my big questions on this. They do use MLB logos in the drawings and other licensed images. I know this is big news recently as MLB and NFL have really cracked down on unlicensed use of intellectual properties. With Leaf having to issue airbrushed cards, as the rights are specific to Topps and Topps losing the rights to NFL Properties to Panini after this year. Any violation can result in a massive swat from their legal teams.

With the new Helmar Mag drawing more attention to their product, it seems like a very short time until the big legal dogs come knocking. Either the Estates, MLB Players Alumni Association, Topps or MLB Properties. You can bet if any one of those sniffs a dollar to be made, they will be there.

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