Modern day Helmar cards--will they gain in value?

[sirraffles]

Those are good criticisms and put me in an awkward position. I find myself wanting to argue that Helmar cards have a high investment potential when I've already said, correctly, that no one knows. Maybe that impulse is my well-known contrarian nature speaking or maybe a little bit of ego. Probably both. And another way I'm in an awkward position is that I don't want to be too successful in my argument because the size of my little business is exactly where I'd like to keep it. If anything, I am already too busy and don't want to expand or be tempted to.

The only thing we can confidently say about the future is that it won't be the same as today. Many of the rules and guidelines that we use will go by the wayside. We regularly see evidence of this now. Big companies and their standard ideas and practices collapse, only to be replaced by no-name companies with fresh ideas and new products that would have been ridiculed just a few years before. It is a constant revolution out there and, yes, a bit of a scary landscape for investors. But it is a great place for consumers, with new horizons and exciting new products.

More specific to our hobby, remember that many T206 cards, righteously loved by collectors today, ended up on the sidewalks outside of smoke shops. No one would have considered them investment worthy. Similar stories can be told about many, if not most, old sets. And most of those companies, once at the top of the market, are long gone. Taste changes, too. Unfortunately, it is possible that collecting cards at all will someday be comparable to how we look today at collecting, say, matchbooks or thimbles. Ho-hum. Cards have the advantage of being personality-driven, to a large extent. But will anyone really remember Christy Mathewson in another 50 years, or 100? I wonder about that. And if the lives and stories of those stars becomes too remote for people to identify with in a couple of generations, than one can pretty much write off the hobby as an investment at all.

But back to Helmar and the rest of the art card market. Most of our series are limited to around 20 sets. That is a very small quantity and they will all sell out. In twenty years if just 25 collectors (just 25!) wanted to collect a series then the prices would rise by a corresponding, or larger, percentage. That's all for now, Charles

[sirraffles]

Chris... around 20, often less. But it is interesting that you are holding only Helmar to this rule. No one has any idea how many cards were printed of most, if not all, of the cards that you presumably collect. In any case, they were printed almost uniformly in quantities exponentially greater than what we do.

Robert... I'd argue against low demand and adequate supply. But take a look at your econ book again, your conclusion is, in any case, off.

Thanks guys. Charles Mandel

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by sirraffles

Those are good criticisms and put me in an awkward position. I find myself wanting to argue that Helmar cards have a high investment potential when I've already said, correctly, that no one knows. Maybe that impulse is my well-known contrarian nature speaking or maybe a little bit of ego. Probably both. And another way I'm in an awkward position is that I don't want to be too successful in my argument because the size of my little business is exactly where I'd like to keep it. If anything, I am already too busy and don't want to expand or be tempted to.

The only thing we can confidently say about the future is that it won't be the same as today. Many of the rules and guidelines that we use will go by the wayside. We regularly see evidence of this now. Big companies and their standard ideas and practices collapse, only to be replaced by no-name companies with fresh ideas and new products that would have been ridiculed just a few years before. It is a constant revolution out there and, yes, a bit of a scary landscape for investors. But it is a great place for consumers, with new horizons and exciting new products.

More specific to our hobby, remember that many T206 cards, righteously loved by collectors today, ended up on the sidewalks outside of smoke shops. No one would have considered them investment worthy. Similar stories can be told about many, if not most, old sets. And most of those companies, once at the top of the market, are long gone. Taste changes, too. Unfortunately, it is possible that collecting cards at all will someday be comparable to how we look today at collecting, say, matchbooks or thimbles. Ho-hum. Cards have the advantage of being personality-driven, to a large extent. But will anyone really remember Christy Mathewson in another 50 years, or 100? I wonder about that. And if the lives and stories of those stars becomes too remote for people to identify with in a couple of generations, than one can pretty much write off the hobby as an investment at all.

But back to Helmar and the rest of the art card market. Most of our series are limited to around 20 sets. That is a very small quantity and they will all sell out. In twenty years if just 25 collectors (just 25!) wanted to collect a series then the prices would rise by a corresponding, or larger, percentage. That's all for now, Charles

For those of us to whom the player on the card means something, the card, to be deemed worthy of significant value, must be like a little time capsule, which not only connects you to the player by capturing an instant of his life, but also takes you back to the time. Ask yourself if if this criteria is met,

Respectfully,

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

"More specific to our hobby, remember that many T206 cards, righteously loved by collectors today, ended up on the sidewalks outside of smoke shops. No one would have considered them investment worthy. Similar stories can be told about many, if not most, old sets."

And that is precisely the point. Those cards are valuable today for the very reason that a small percentage of them, for a variety of reasons, survived. I don't believe you can just create value by manufacturing scarcity in an era when there is a fully developed market for cards and the overwhelming majority are preserved in original condition. I think the same holds true for all the allegedly rare versions of modern cards, although at least some of those have some significance as rookie cards and not fantasy cards.

That said, they are well done.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

"More specific to our hobby, remember that many T206 cards, righteously loved by collectors today, ended up on the sidewalks outside of smoke shops. No one would have considered them investment worthy. Similar stories can be told about many, if not most, old sets."

And that is precisely the point. Those cards are valuable today for the very reason that a small percentage of them, for a variety of reasons, survived. I don't believe you can just create value by manufacturing scarcity in an era when there is a fully developed market for cards and the overwhelming majority are preserved in original condition. I think the same holds true for all the allegedly rare versions of modern cards, although at least some of those have some significance as rookie cards and not fantasy cards.

That said, they are well done.

+1. I think they might hold their value as beautiful art pieces but collecting them according to man-made scarcity usually doesn't increase value in my experiences. Great artwork and great organization. Wonderful product. And I ordered the new magazine too.....

[GregMitch34]

I love the Helmars too but still: I try to collect only, or mainly, the truly most beautiful cards that were actually produced before 1930. Unfortunately for Helmar, there are a great number of these, so there is no need to turn to Helmars for great art. Still, I am tempted, hence my original post. Variety and originality do count for a lot.

http://www.net54baseball.com/attachm...1&d=1436020911

[Chris-Counts]

The way I see it, Helmar cards are essentially limited edition pieces of art ... without the limited edition part. I'll bet many collectors here have something that was created in a limited edition series on their wall. But "Around 20" is too vague for me, and I suspect, others as well. I can't imagine an artist signing a print, "Around 20." If I could produce something as beautiful as the Helmar cards, I would print them in numbers large enough so the average collector could afford them, and also issue larger limited edition prints, which would sell for considerably more.

Chris... around 20, often less. But it is interesting that you are holding only Helmar to this rule. No one has any idea how many cards were printed of most, if not all, of the cards that you presumably collect. In any case, they were printed almost uniformly in quantities exponentially greater than what we do.

Robert... I'd argue against low demand and adequate supply. But take a look at your econ book again, your conclusion is, in any case, off.

Thanks guys. Charles Mandel

[Stonepony]

I would think zero chance. I believe every one of their " issues" is low production. How many different products have they released - hundreds and hundreds...? Unless youre on E bay as much as Brian, you'd probably be hard pressed to recall any of them. Very nice product, but not collectable as an investment IMHO.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Stonepony

I would think zero chance. I believe every one of their " issues" is low production. How many different products have they released - hundreds and hundreds...? Unless youre on E bay as much as Brian, you'd probably be hard pressed to recall any of them. Very nice product, but not collectable as an investment IMHO.

Yeah just a search of completed auctions, presumably just the last couple months, shows 19 different Babe Ruth cards.

http://www.ebay.com/sch/m.html?_odkw...=ruth&_sacat=0

[sirraffles]

The different series may have different quantities produced...hence my descriptive "around twenty".

As for the quantity produced, it really has nothing to do with trying to set an artificial rarity, though rarity probably bodes well for future collectors. The small quantities make sense to me, and should to you. Simply put, the number that I produce equals how many I feel that I can sell comfortably. There's no point in making more than that; if I did so, I'd likely be hearing, "nice cards but they overproduce".

As a collector, to buy an expensive card simply based on rarity is something that I would hope to avoid. However, if we are honest then we must admit that many non-Helmar cards are purchased only because they are rare. I won't name any, but I'm sure we can all think of unattractive, even ugly, cards that are sought after and highly valued simply because they are "rare".

Lucky: if they are collected down the road because they are considered "beautiful art pieces," that is great. I don't know why you (and some others) stop short of calling them cards, but that is fine. I don't care what people decide to call them as long as they enjoy them. Caveat: I do dislike the "fantasy" term. Why would some cards be fantasy cards and others not? Is a 1948 Leaf Ruth a fantasy card, as he had retired years before? How about 1961 Fleer Greats? But it is not that big of a deal, though some seem to use the term derisively.

Larry, I like your entire thoughtful comment. You ask in bold type whether Helmar cards successfully "takes you back to the time." This is, of course, my intention and why people continue to collect the Helmar cards. To take fans back in time is the main reason that I decided, on a whim, to only offer distressed cards. That and it was a poke in the eye to (what I saw as) the crazed over-emphasis on grading and enslaving cards within plastic tombs. Just personally speaking, any card (including Helmar) that I can hold and feels "right" takes me back in time more successfully than a card that is slabbed. On Helmar cards, the player image is important, of course, but the paper finish, the weight, even the aroma (yes, I finally admit it! On a couple series I use a fragrance that I mix) all work together to make the full package.

I should add here that I understand the need for grading services and, in some cases, plastic slabs. It is just wildly over-emphasized, in my opinion, and has detracted from the enjoyment of collecting. It also discourages potential collectors from starting, I think.

I want to bring back collecting to what I enjoyed in the 1970's and the Helmar approach is my answer. I don't expect, and never expected, everyone to "get it". For those that do, enjoy the ride!

Best, Charles Mandel

[GregMitch34]

Charles, I appreciate you coming on here to "chat," even though not everyone a Helmar fan. Everyone seems to appreciate the art and your effort, however, and I recommend the magazine again.

[chaddurbin]

imo no, unless these are prototypes into something else that will get bought up by TOPPS to start mass production. same thing with watches, there are literally hundreds of little wannabe watchmakers out there copying the latest trendy looks. they are usually gone within a few years unless the craftmanship and quality is really superb where they gain some grassroots momentum. even then they are seen as on the level of the mass-produced seiko/timex...and not the collector/investment level of a panerai. so i don't think a $300 helmar is going for 50k in 100 years...no, more like fireworks (burning money).