Clayton Kershaw

[Dewey]

Who dropped that piece of dynami...

BOOM!

[clydepepper]

From ESPN.Com - Interesting:

*** My apologies for the sloppy cut and paste job.


2016 NL Cy Young Predictor as of June 3

RK PLAYER TEAM CYP G GS IP ER K SV SHO W-L ERA VB
1 Jake Arrieta CHC 101.9 11 11 75.0 13 75 0 1 9-0 1.56 12
2 Stephen Strasburg WSH 92.4 11 11 73.2 22 90 0 0 9-0 2.69 12
3 Johnny Cueto SF 90.4 11 11 81.2 21 72 0 2 8-1 2.31 12
4 Madison Bumgarner SF 85.3 12 12 80.0 17 94 0 0 7-2 1.91 12
5 Clayton Kershaw LAD 84.9 11 11 86.2 15 105 0 3 7-1 1.56 0
6 Jeff Samardzija SF 71.7 11 11 76.0 24 66 0 0 7-3 2.84 12
7 Jose Fernandez MIA 70.6 11 11 67.2 19 96 0 0 8-2 2.53 0
8 Jon Lester CHC 69.0 11 11 70.2 18 69 0 0 6-3 2.29 12
9 Jason Hammel CHC 68.3 10 10 56.0 13 50 0 0 6-1 2.09 12
10 Jeanmar Gomez PHI 60.7 26 0 28.0 9 20 17 0 2-1 2.89 0


Glossary
• CYP: In The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers -- co-authored by Bill James and ESPN.com's Rob Neyer presents a method, based on past results, to predict Cy Young balloting. This page provides an in-season snapshot of the Cy Young "race," as figured by the following formula: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).
• VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship

[Peter_Spaeth]

5 or so guys off to amazing starts.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

From ESPN.Com - Interesting:

*** My apologies for the sloppy cut and paste job.


2016 NL Cy Young Predictor as of June 3

RK PLAYER TEAM CYP G GS IP ER K SV SHO W-L ERA VB
1 Jake Arrieta CHC 101.9 11 11 75.0 13 75 0 1 9-0 1.56 12
2 Stephen Strasburg WSH 92.4 11 11 73.2 22 90 0 0 9-0 2.69 12
3 Johnny Cueto SF 90.4 11 11 81.2 21 72 0 2 8-1 2.31 12
4 Madison Bumgarner SF 85.3 12 12 80.0 17 94 0 0 7-2 1.91 12
5 Clayton Kershaw LAD 84.9 11 11 86.2 15 105 0 3 7-1 1.56 0
6 Jeff Samardzija SF 71.7 11 11 76.0 24 66 0 0 7-3 2.84 12
7 Jose Fernandez MIA 70.6 11 11 67.2 19 96 0 0 8-2 2.53 0
8 Jon Lester CHC 69.0 11 11 70.2 18 69 0 0 6-3 2.29 12
9 Jason Hammel CHC 68.3 10 10 56.0 13 50 0 0 6-1 2.09 12
10 Jeanmar Gomez PHI 60.7 26 0 28.0 9 20 17 0 2-1 2.89 0


Glossary
• CYP: In The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers -- co-authored by Bill James and ESPN.com's Rob Neyer presents a method, based on past results, to predict Cy Young balloting. This page provides an in-season snapshot of the Cy Young "race," as figured by the following formula: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).
• VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship

Not a single pitcher on that list is outperforming Kershaw, and it's not even close. They're all having good seasons, but Kershaw is clearly the best.

Cueto leads the league in HR/9 IP, has a 169 ERA + and a 2.43 FIP.
Strasburg has a 155 ERA +, and a 2.60 WHIP. Leads in zero metrics.
Bumgarner has a 205 ERA +, and a 2.77 FIP. Leads in zero metrics.
Arrieta I've already gone over. He leads in wins, ERA + and hits/ 9 IP. He has a 257 ERA + and a 2.73 FIP.
Kershaw has a 244 ERA + and a 1.51 FIP. He leads the league in ERA (tied with Arrieta), shutouts, strikeouts, FIP, WHIP, BB/9 IP and SO:BB ratio.

I would put zero credence in anything the ESPN baseball writers have to say. They're hacks. David Schoenfield just released his All Star team, and he has Andrew McCutchen as a starter in the NL outfield while McCutchen is hitting .251 with a below .800 OPS. He sucks this year. In fact, he's the third best outfielder on his team.

[the 'stache]

Looking at that formula, the very fact that they consider wins and losses by a pitcher tells me everything I need to know.

The formula is crap.

And "a 12 point bonus is given for leading your team to the division championship."

Really? LOL

The four pitchers ahead of Kershaw are on teams that lead their division. They have that 12 pt bonus because ESPN has somehow predicted that they will win their divisions, even though there are 110 + games left to be played in the season. That's the difference in the point total right now. Kershaw's Dodgers don't lead the division (Bumgarner's Giants do), so no bonus for him.

"Hey, Clayton, sorry that you had an historic season in the annals of baseball, but no Cy Young for you because you played on a crap team that blew five of your wins, and didn't win the division."

Then there's this little gem:

"based on past results"

30 years ago, hell, 10 years ago, it was wins and losses, ERA and strikeouts. We know how to better evaluate a pitcher's performance today. Through the use of modern metrics, statisticians have demonstrated a much better understanding of how a pitcher does their job, and what they can control. Wins and losses? Really?


This "predictor" is one of the most ill conceived things I've ever seen. I don't fault you for posting it, Raymond, but it's typical of the half-assed job ESPN does. They don't understand the sport at all.

[clydepepper]

...plus, they didn't include Syndergaard on the list at all !

He dominated again tonight.




Bill- what do you think the proposed change (higher) to the strike zone will do to Kershaw? - If, indeed, it is enforced. I hope it doesn't make the game like pinball again.

IMHO, there is a need for balance between hitting and pitching and the game suffers greatly when that balance is radically changed.


.

[chaddurbin]

kershaw's fastball has a natural rise in its movement, part of the reason batters don't make solid contact against him. he'll be fine.

edit: i read a recent stat a couple days ago where kershaw has 4.1war-share (fangraph) for the year and 2.9 for may, while second place is a tie of syndergaard and jose quintana...with a 2.7war total for the SEASON. kershaw can just sit for and chill for the next month and he'd probably still be the most productive pitcher in baseball.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

kershaw's fastball has a natural rise in its movement, part of the reason batters don't make solid contact against him. he'll be fine.

edit: i read a recent stat a couple days ago where kershaw has 4.1war-share (fangraph) for the year and 2.9 for may, while second place is a tie of syndergaard and jose quintana...with a 2.7war total for the SEASON. kershaw can just sit for and chill for the next month and he'd probably still be the most productive pitcher in baseball.

Kershaw is ridiculous. The command he's been showing thus far this season is pretty much unprecedented.

[the 'stache]

Another pitcher I expect to see a jump from soon is Gerrit Cole. His FIP and WHIP are up some from last year, but I have this sneaking feeling that by this time next year, he's going to be included in the discussion of best starters in the game.

Oh man, just saw Ali died.

[the 'stache]

Kershaw is on a roll. His last ten starts:

9-0, 78 IP, 10 ER, 1.15 ERA, 101 K, 4 BB, 43 H, 3 HR, 0.603 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 IP, 0.5 BB/9 IP

He now leads the National League in wins, ERA, CG, SHO, IP, K, ERA +, FIP, WHIP, H/9 IP, BB/9 IP, and K:BB.

His ERA + coming into tonight was 243. I assume it went up slightly after tonight. 6 hits allowed in 7 innings, 1 run, 0 walks, 8 K.

The guy is just nuts. Too bad the Dodgers can't surround him with a better team.

[the 'stache]

I wonder what, principally, is to explain for the jump in his strikeout rate the last three years. Between 2011 and 2013, he won two Cy Youngs, and was runner up in the other season. His K/9 IP rate was 9.2. The last three years, that's jumped considerably; a full 2 Ks to 11.2. His walk rate in the first three year span was 2.2/9 IP, and even before this season's historic start, he was averaging 1.5 BB/9 IP between 2014 and '15. So, his walk rate had dropped by about 1/3.

[the 'stache]

Damn, double post. Sorry.

[chaddurbin]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

kershaw can just sit for and chill for the next month and he'd probably still be the most productive pitcher in baseball.

so yea this was a jinx. kershaw has been out for a month now, and yes he still leads all pitchers in WAR. my hunch is at some point next month he'll be shut down for 2016. they don't want to do it right now because of the trading deadline/leverage and all that.

urias/deleon/puig/verdugo for chris sale, let's do it chicago!

[the 'stache]

I think there will be a period of adjustment, and that could mean an increase in scoring. But the truly great pitchers have pinpoint control, and shouldn't be adversely affected by the change.

Syndergaard is having a great season. So is Jose Fernandez. I've been high on these two kids for quite a while. Syndergaard has reached a high level quicker than I thought he would. Fernandez, too. The only thing that's slowed Jose down has been injury. The guy's an absolute stud pitcher. As for Syndergaard, the Blue Jays have to be kicking themselves. How do you let a pitcher like that go??

If Matt Harvey turns it around (and his last start, seven innings of two hit shutout ball with 1 BB and 6 K against the White Sox is a real good sign), look out for this Mets team. Steven Matz has been on a roll (5-0, a 1.56 ERA his last six starts), de Grom has been real good (3-1, 2.62 ERA), and Zack Wheeler will be back sometime in July. That's a downright nasty five man rotation.