PSA/SGC grade est. - Aim high or low?

[xplainer]

Originally Posted by scomeau

Need help w estimating strategy: I'm struggling. I want to grade a bunch of items pre & post war and neither grading company has replied to my question via email. I'm not trying to cheap out, but I don't want to spend $40 for what turns out to be a $99 card.

The problem: Even with PSA's SMR, VCP, eBay as sources for pricing, prices are all over the map based on grade. Makes sense, but grading is hard and it seems to change. I often don't know how to differentiate cards that are between 4 and 7 or higher grades. A 4 from a 7 - probably easy enough, but sometimes 2 or 3 grades are possible.

I'm no pro, but the value difference between 5 and 6 for say, a '56 Topps Williams, is pretty big $180 vs $275. Small potatoes if just one card, but how about a '55 Clemente or a hundred 1956 Topps? I can't tell what I might get back even when I apply PSA's published criteria - such as 'minor edge chipping' vs 'slight notching chipping'. What is 'some loss of gloss' compared to 'average loss of gloss'? Maybe you see a million examples and have a feel, but I find it so difficult.

Submission estimate: So, using the Williams example, if I submit it as a less than $250 service level, and I have mis-estimated, what will the grader do? Should I encourage a generous grade by paying the higher freight?

Your experiences:
Do you get an impartial grade whether you under or over estimate?
Does the grader contact you if you have submitted too low? too high?

Some have advised to estimate enough to cover your investment. I get that, but I'm not dealing. I'm collecting. I want an accurate grade and that's all.

I have a lot of cards (M116's and T202s as an example), whose grade is going to be a guess either because arguable condition or tampering I can't see. And the gap could be wide in $ and grade.

I just don't know what to do. If I submit a nice M116 Plank thinking it's a 6 or 7, but I get a grade of 4 for reasons I can't see, the cost to grade is big. And would they ever give it an 8 if deserved but submitted as a mid-level service.

HELP!

OK. Being careful not to sound like an A-hole, but you are not ready to send cards off to PSA or SGC. You need to get a handle on what you have, and the grade you expect to get back.

Submit at the graded level the "raw card is valued", not the hoped for graded.

Sorry, with no disrespect intended, you are not ready to submit. A little homework yet to do.

-Jimmy

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by xplainer

OK. Being careful not to sound like an A-hole, but you are not ready to send cards off to PSA or SGC. You need to get a handle on what you have, and the grade you expect to get back.

Submit at the graded level the "raw card is valued", not the hoped for graded.

Sorry, with no disrespect intended, you are not ready to submitted. A little homework yet to do.

-Jimmy

I agree Jimmy. I think it is more of trying to make something way harder than it really is. Very common on first submissions.

[scomeau]

Ben,

So which is it? I haven't prepared enough as Jim suggests, or I'm over thinking and complicating the process too much.

My gripe is that grades are difficult to pin, and therefore price estimates (service levels) are therefore hard to choose. And it can really matter!

I'm not saying there's an easy solution, but doesn't that ring true? The graders grade with impunity and usually offer no particular explanations.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by scomeau

Ben,

So which is it? I haven't prepared enough as Jim suggests, or I'm over thinking and complicating the process too much.

My gripe is that grades are difficult to pin, and therefore price estimates (service levels) are therefore hard to choose. And it can really matter!

I'm not saying there's an easy solution, but doesn't that ring true? The graders grade with impunity and usually offer no particular explanations.

You are not prepared because you are over thinking and greatly complicating the process. I done it my first time and would bet most others have also. The card value part is really not that strict. Go to eBay sold listings and find something similar(does not have to be exact) raw condition and use that price. Graded values mean absolutely nothing.

SGC grading levels for cards are $250, $500, $2000, $5000, ect. they could care less how you value the card unless you try sending in a $2000 card at a $500 grading level. So say you have a mid grade 54 Topps Ted Williams and send it in at the $500 level. They could care less if you value it at $1 or $499. I hope this helps.

[EvilKing00]

Id give price on raw card cause thats what u have. Id also use sgc

[Rhotchkiss]

Dumb question- i assume PSA will charge same price to grade an SGC or BVG card as it does to grade a raw card?

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Dumb question- i assume PSA will charge same price to grade an SGC or BVG card as it does to grade a raw card?

Yes, it's considered a crossover submission. If it's the only card you're submitting, it will cost the same as if it was raw. Say the card is a BVG 6; you can have PSA only take the card out and slab it if it meets your PSA grade requested. So if you would lose money on a PSA 4.5, but make money on a PSA 5, you can set 5 as the min grade for crossover and PSA won't crack it out unless it is at least a PSA 5.

I submitted 10 cards from SGC/BVG to PSA a few months ago and 5 of 10 crossed over at the same grade, while two lost a half point. The other 3 didn't meet the min grade I requested and were returned in the original holder.

The additional cost is that you can't submit them in a group with a single return shipping. You have to pay separate return shipping if you submit a raw card along with a graded card. A card already in a PSA holder you want to try to bump would be a "review" submission.

[scooter729]

I submitted a bunch of 1986 Fleer basketball cards last month as a bulk order (under $100 per card assumed value). One was Karl Malone, which I figured was an 8-9 ($50-$75); it came back as a 10, which is $750+.

This is a good example that they grade the card blindly of the submission level. On the flip side, I've subbed cards at $500+ level and got slammed on grades.

So, give it a fair estimate - they're not going to nitpick and worry about precise values unless you're sending Mantle rookies in on bulk common orders.

[toledo_mudhen]

I've found that when I get a card that I THINK is a 7 then assume it is a 6. Never disappointed this way and sometimes pleasantly surprised. Also SGC is rock solid consistent - whether you like it or not.

[scomeau]

Lonnie,

Nice to preserve mental health!

[Rhotchkiss]

Swarmee, thanks for the detailed response. I guess it comes down to a business decision whether to cross over and pay the money (knowing you may end up keeping in old case or accepting a downgrade). I have about 10+/- "big boy" cards in SGC holders (all SCG 70+ HOFers, most of which are T206 and all of which are worth between $1,000 - $10k a piece in their current holders). Even though i am not a seller, I feel they are worth more in a PSA folder (even though I feel SGC is just as good on T206s), which means its a question of whether I want to spend $2k+ seeking one or more upgrades/straight crossovers that justify the expense. Regardless, I appreciate the insights.

[scomeau]

Scott,

I'm seeing more people with that type of result, and it's reassuring.

[scomeau]

John,

Interesting results. From a business perspective, I guess you would count that 10-card crossover as a win - but only because most feel that PSA slabs are more respected in the market? If not, I would have been disappointed.

Obviously an expensive and inconclusive stunt, but it would be interesting to crack those 10 and submit the to PSA raw to see what you would get in return.

[scomeau]

Haha, Jim. I don't think you are a dark body part! I get what you say, but I will disagree.

I have looked at hundreds of graded cards in my own hands, and frankly, if I were to guess the grade without looking, I would be one grade off at least 50% of the time. And I see many dealers on eBay with great feedback who very frequently argue that the card in question could easily be a grade higher. To me that means even the 'experts frequently disagree. So, maybe I'm not as green as you think. Haha.

I look at hundreds of examples on eBay and in auctions, too. Scans on eBay can't possibly show enough detail to hit a grade on the nose. Even graded cards are difficult to rate with a scan. The auctions have a lot of credibility, but they are so often selling stuff in the stratosphere which most of us can't relate.

I think some of the ambiguity is due, in part, to times changing related to card values/grades. Certain cards or sets gain or lose popularity, and I think there is an inescapable bias based on card 'heat'. Hot cards are scrutinized more closely and grades seem to be more conservative.

The circular logic is pretty obvious: I'm asking for a grade, but have to do my own grading to get it. And SGC does not publish their criteria as far as I can see. PSA does, but it's very subjective.

So, I think my judgment quandary of not being able to pin a grade may be some ignorance, but I really think it's pretty valid.

Do you get back grades you anticipated most of the time?

[xplainer]

OK, it isn't about igorance. Sorry I came across like that.
Look here:http://www.sgccard.com/GradingScale.aspx

Best of luck.

[swarmee]

Didn't we just have this conversation?
http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=232522

[scomeau]

Hi John,

Yes, in a way, but I didn't get a lot of specific advice on how to sensibly estimate. Particularly when a one-grade jump can be a BIG jump. If I'm submitting an '87 Ripken, I'm not so crazy.

If, as Ben suggests, if I were looking at a raw 54 Bowman Williams (and I have one!), I find it hard to pick the level for submission.

Simple as that. So I was looking for a strategy. One fellow suggested that if a card sits on the fence, pick the lower rail and if my choice is too conservative, the grader will ask me to reconsider. Or so he says.

I would love to know if frequent submitters are usually disappointed, satisfied, or thrilled with the results, and how that might affect their submission.

Sorry if I'm beating a dead horse.

[scomeau]

Ben,

Great input. I met Matt when last in Boca. Good to know he reached out.

I think I agree with your assessment, too. SGC for my wall and grand children. PSA to sell unwanted material.

Thanks.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by scomeau

Hi John,

Yes, in a way, but I didn't get a lot of specific advice on how to sensibly estimate. Particularly when a one-grade jump can be a BIG jump. If I'm submitting an '87 Ripken, I'm not so crazy.

If, as Ben suggests, if I were looking at a raw 54 Bowman Williams (and I have one!), I find it hard to pick the level for submission.

Simple as that. So I was looking for a strategy. One fellow suggested that if a card sits on the fence, pick the lower rail and if my choice is too conservative, the grader will ask me to reconsider. Or so he says.

I would love to know if frequent submitters are usually disappointed, satisfied, or thrilled with the results, and how that might affect their submission.

Sorry if I'm beating a dead horse.

After submitting a few times you will get an idea of what to expect. Usually if you are surprised it is because you missed something on the card. I find SGC to be more consistent. I have both 54 Williams, a complete 59 Fleer Ted Williams set and a bunch of other cards there now. I wrote down my guesses on the 59 set and will compare when they get back.

[scomeau]

Ben,

The '59 set is one of my favorites of that era. I like the red Mantle and the blue Musial, among others. Great players and nice design and colors.

I have a bunch I opened myself. Of course, I crunched most of them! No matter, though.

[scomeau]

Ben, Oops, I thought you meant the Topps '59. I have a couple of the Williams set.

[Bill77]

Just to get more of an idea as to what you are thinking of grading some scans of a card or two would help you get a little more info. But just using the examples from your 1st post I would think that you could submit your better cards at either SGC's Grand Slam level or maybe even the Express level as the cards mention in your 1st post are in that price range ($500-$2000).

If I'm way off I'm sure someone will say something.

[scomeau]

Bill,

I see what you mean, but the Plank for instance, is just a little short. So, it might be an 8 or an 'A'. If I submit it cheap and it's good, I hope they would not grade it low due to my service level. If I submit it as a 'Walk Thru' ($2,000 - 9,999), it could cost me $200 for an 'A'. In general, that's my dilemma.

Thanks for your help.

[scomeau]

Jimmy and Ben,

That helps. Thank you. Somehow, I missed those criteria from SGC.

I guess it was Beckett's customer service that told me they don't share their grading criteria. I took them at their word.

Have you ever had PSA or SGC get back to you indicating you underestimated? Just wondering if they really do or if it's an urban (Faber?) myth.

Ben does have a point about me making a small mountain out of a mole hill, though. I have been trying to consider whether to become a gold or platinum member of either or both while trying to take into account the potential monthly specials, insurance fees, and my grading headache. I will have a cocktail and try to chill.

Thanks guys. If we agree or not, I enjoy the forum and you took the time.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by scomeau

Jimmy and Ben,

That helps. Thank you. Somehow, I missed those criteria from SGC.

I guess it was Beckett's customer service that told me they don't share their grading criteria. I took them at their word.

Have you ever had PSA or SGC get back to you indicating you underestimated? Just wondering if they really do or if it's an urban (Faber?) myth.

Ben does have a point about me making a small mountain out of a mole hill, though. I have been trying to consider whether to become a gold or platinum member of either or both while trying to take into account the potential monthly specials, insurance fees, and my grading headache. I will have a cocktail and try to chill.

Thanks guys. If we agree or not, I enjoy the forum and you took the time.

I am a gold club member(SGC) because of their monthly specials. To be honest I use SGC for my personal collection because they really do a better job of grading. Plus their slabs look so much better than the others. If selling I get in on a PSA group submission.

Yes if you sent something in way over the value of the submission level you will get a call. I have had Matt(great guy) at SCG call me a couple times about different issues.