OT - New Hall of Famers: Bagwell, Raines and Ivan Rodriguez

[sycks22]

Originally Posted by JasonD08

Vlad is not a HOFer.

Vlad's first 10 full seasons:
950 Runs, 1781 Hits, 337 HR, 1051 RBI, .325 Avg Top 3 RF. Hit .300+ every year

Miggy's first 10 seasons:
961 Runs, 1802 Hits, 321 HR, 1123 RBI, .318 Avg Below Average 3B / 1B. Hit under .300 3x's

Would anyone argue that Miggy isn't a first ballot HOFer?

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by sycks22

Vlad's first 9 full seasons:
950 Runs, 1781 Hits, 337 HR, 1051 RBI, .325 Avg

Miggy's first 9 seasons:
961 Runs, 1802 Hits, 321 HR, 1123 RBI, .318 Avg

Would anyone argue that Miggy isn't a first ballot HOFer?

Those old outdated stats mean nothing. You need the new cool ones. You know the ones were they use hypothetical and theoretical in the explanation of how they got those stats.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by sycks22

Vlad's first 10 full seasons:
950 Runs, 1781 Hits, 337 HR, 1051 RBI, .325 Avg Top 3 RF. Hit .300+ every year

Miggy's first 10 seasons:
961 Runs, 1802 Hits, 321 HR, 1123 RBI, .318 Avg Below Average 3B / 1B. Hit under .300 3x's

Would anyone argue that Miggy isn't a first ballot HOFer?

Originally Posted by bnorth

Those old outdated stats mean nothing. You need the new cool ones. You know the ones were they use hypothetical and theoretical in the explanation of how they got those stats.

Vlad first ten seasons: (10th during that period)

48.6 fWAR

144 wRC+ (100 is avg)

.405 wOBA

.381 OBP

.584 SLG



Miggy first ten seasons (3rd over that period)

52.7 fWAR

155 wRC+

.411 wOBA

.403 OBP

.573 SLG


first ten seasons they do compare pretty well, but their ENSUING seasons look like this:

Vlad (2007-11):

5.9 fWAR

120 wRC+

.361 wOBA

.354 OBP

.490 SLG


Miggy (2013-16):

21.8 fWAR

164 wRC+

.412 wOBA

.409 OBP

.565 SLG



Miggy has been on an entirely different level after about his 3rd or 4th season (he's dragged down a bit by his early years as he was so young when he came into MLB) Vlad is a good player, a borderline player, but his decline was pretty fast and his defense wasn't good enough to make up for his bat (and injuries)


saber stats are not hypothetical, they use real data and more data than stuff like batting average (for instance wRC+ takes into account the parks played in, league played in, the type of hit accrued....etc )

[rats60]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

Vlad first ten seasons: (10th during that period)

48.6 fWAR

144 wRC+ (100 is avg)

.405 wOBA

.381 OBP

.584 SLG



Miggy first ten seasons (3rd over that period)

52.7 fWAR

155 wRC+

.411 wOBA

.403 OBP

.573 SLG


first ten seasons they do compare pretty well, but their ENSUING seasons look like this:

Vlad (2007-11):

5.9 fWAR

120 wRC+

.361 wOBA

.354 OBP

.490 SLG


Miggy (2013-16):

21.8 fWAR

164 wRC+

.412 wOBA

.409 OBP

.565 SLG



Miggy has been on an entirely different level after about his 3rd or 4th season (he's dragged down a bit by his early years as he was so young when he came into MLB) Vlad is a good player, a borderline player, but his decline was pretty fast and his defense wasn't good enough to make up for his bat (and injuries)


saber stats are not hypothetical, they use real data and more data than stuff like batting average (for instance wRC+ takes into account the parks played in, league played in, the type of hit accrued....etc )

No, they are hypothetical. Someone makes up a model, plugs in actual data and comes up with a number. They can't prove that number means anything.

If you want to claim otherwise, provide me with a mathematical proof that those stats mean what you claim they do. It is one person's opinion, that is all.

[packs]

You can't pick and choose which stats are more advantageous to your point. Either you look at every stat or no stats. If someone posts production numbers such as HR, RBI, AVE, OPS, those stats are just as relevant as your stats.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by rats60

No, they are hypothetical. Someone makes up a model, plugs in actual data and comes up with a number. They can't prove that number means anything.

If you want to claim otherwise, provide me with a mathematical proof that those stats mean what you claim they do. It is one person's opinion, that is all.

ummm no they aren't, just because you haven't taken the time to understand them doesn't make you rather ignorant opinion valid. go do some learning then come back to me. try fangraphs.com and go to the glossary it explains how they formulate everything.

Originally Posted by packs

You can't pick and choose which stats are more advantageous to your point. Either you look at every stat or no stats. If someone posts production numbers such as HR, RBI, AVE, OPS, those stats are just as relevant as your stats.

homers- yes, it is a legit stat for determining production

RBI- not worth much, it is symbolic of the OBP of the batters in front of a player and has been found to have no bearing on an individual's offensive production. I know it's been ingrained in you for years, but it's a false narrative.


AVE- IDK what this is

OPS- it's not as good as people think as it treats OBP and SLG equally and we know now that OBP is worth nearly twice as much as SLG, it is far better to use wRC+ and ISO to figure those two things

[rats60]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

ummm no they aren't, just because you haven't taken the time to understand them doesn't make you rather ignorant opinion valid. go do some learning then come back to me. try fangraphs.com and go to the glossary it explains how they formulate everything.

Thanks for proving me right. Posting a link to someone's opinion just confirms you can not prove anything. 6 years of college was plenty of learning for me. I don't need to read more opinions. I can think for myself.

[h2oya311]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

Vlad is a good player, a borderline player, but his decline was pretty fast and his defense wasn't good enough to make up for his bat (and injuries)

Gonna have to disagree on his defense. I don't look at sabermetrics or anything else, so please excuse me if the "numbers" prove otherwise. There wasn't a person on this planet that would try to go from 2nd to 3rd when hit to Vladdy out in RF. I think if you look up the definition of "cannon" in the dictionary, it has a picture of Vlad! Honestly, do yourself a favor and google "vladimir guerrero cannon".

[nat]

He did have a cannon of an arm. The problem was that he often didn't know where the cannonball was going.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by h2oya311

Gonna have to disagree on his defense. I don't look at sabermetrics or anything else, so please excuse me if the "numbers" prove otherwise. There wasn't a person on this planet that would try to go from 2nd to 3rd when hit to Vladdy out in RF. I think if you look up the definition of "cannon" in the dictionary, it has a picture of Vlad! Honestly, do yourself a favor and google "vladimir guerrero cannon".

there is more to OF defense than arm strength, his range was pretty mediocre (and only got worse as he aged) and his arm accuracy was hit or miss too.

[packs]

I don't think RBI's is a "false narrative". A player has to produce to get an RBI. You're treating it as a given. Just because a guy is on base does not mean he is going to score. I don't know what you're putting forward when you say something like RBI has nothing to do with a player's production. Of course it does.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't think RBI's is a "false narrative". A player has to produce to get an RBI. You're treating it as a given. Just because a guy is on base does not mean he is going to score. I don't know what you're putting forward when you say something like RBI has nothing to do with a player's production. Of course it does.

This has seemed a repetitive (and exhausting) discussion on the board over the past year +, and no one is convincing this poster of anything other than what he feels is his superior grasp (statistically) of the game.

I'm all for considering everything, including the new. I also know though, getting a hit takes far more skill than taking a walk. If one is willing to dismiss the RBI for being dependent upon runners getting on base, then one should also consider that taking a walk is in large part dependent upon a pitcher throwing 4 balls. Getting a clean single, or smacking one over the wall IMO is still probably the purest measure of a batter's hitting skill (purely the hand eye coordination of hitting), and thus BA should never simply be discounted.

If there are newer, more comprehensive stats, great, use them.. but IMO, it's much more open minded to consider all data, not cherry pick. I also know if I were a GM, there are still several situations I'd much prefer a guy who aggressively puts bat to ball, as opposed to taking a walk... like any 2 out RISP situation.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by sycks22

Vlad's first 10 full seasons:
950 Runs, 1781 Hits, 337 HR, 1051 RBI, .325 Avg Top 3 RF. Hit .300+ every year

Miggy's first 10 seasons:
961 Runs, 1802 Hits, 321 HR, 1123 RBI, .318 Avg Below Average 3B / 1B. Hit under .300 3x's

Would anyone argue that Miggy isn't a first ballot HOFer?

I know there is issues with WAR, but if you look at the simple numbers from BLACK INK, which is a score based off being a league leader (no hypothetical). Than you would see that Miggy has been more dominant during his playing days than Vlad.

Miggy - 43. Ranked 34th all time.
Vlad - 6. Ranked 373rd all time.

I do believe, though, Vlad would be a fine HOF because even though he didn't lead the league as often, he was in the top 10 plenty of times. Even scoring a higher gray ink than Griffey.

[nat]

Here's a good place to start: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pri...inear-weights/

You don't need to worry about wOBA in the above link, the run expectancy tables are the important part. They are what is at the heart of WAR.

[Louieman]

Of course looking at the sabremetrics is essential to evaluating whether someone is a HOFer or not. But I think just as importantly you have to simply ask yourself, especially if you were witness to the career of the player, "Is this guy a HOFer and was he a dominant player in his time?" Vladimir Guerrero completely passes that test in my book. And to add on, you have to give a little bonus to the guy because he carved his own little niche into the approach of being a great ballplayer. A bare-bones, raw, quirky approach. I'm unhappy he didn't get first ballot. But hopefully next year is his year.

[Fred]

Raines deserves to be in the HOF. He was the second best lead-off hitter of his era and that's saying a lot considering Rickey was (and will arguably probably always be) the best lead-off hitter, ever.

Making a case for closers for the HOF is difficult. Most people will probably agree that Mariano Rivera is a first ballot shoe-in, I think so (and I hate the Yankees - but who can hate Mariano and Jeter, that'd be tough).

Hoffy should have been voted in on this past ballot (second ballot). I figure if people are going to mention dominance, then the K/9 rate should be a huge consideration.

Hoffy's K-rate of 9.4K/9 is much better than Mariano Rivera's rate of 8.2K/9. Does that mean I'm indicating Hoffy was a better closer than Mariano - HELL NO. But if people are going to bring dominance and pitching into the mix, then K's should be a huge consideration. If Hoffman was going to be elected based on his humility, humbleness and genuine incredible character, then he would have been voted in on the first ballot before the 5 years passed by. That guy is "Class", personified. And he was a great closer and a pitcher who was incredible in high leverage situations.

[packs]

Hoffman was not dominant. In one more season played Mariano Rivera compiled a 56.6 WAR. Hoffman only has a WAR of 28. In one more season Rivera was worth twice as many wins. That's dominance.