Market flattening definitely

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

PSA 7 Ruth sold for $552,000 and 1907 Seamless Steel Tubes Ty Cobb with Cobb writing content for $84,000 as the last Heritage auction. Seamless Cobb in Good 2 went for $24,000 in the last REA auction. Autographed 1907 Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobb--$26,000. Non-autographed Fielding Pose just under $11,000 at auction in 2015 in PSA 5, up from the $4,000 I paid for one in the very same grade in 2011. I'd say rare and significant items (condition rarity for the Ruth) are doing quite well.

Regards,

Larry

Yes, putting aside the fact that Heritage sold the exact same Ruth card last Fall for $717,000 . . .nah, forget it. . . .everything is going up . . . I agree. Purple Kool Aid line to the right . . . .

[Snapolit1]

After the Ruth rookie card, the second highest grossing card in Heritage this week, the Mantle gem 10 56 Topps, only dropped $22,000 from the one they sold last Fall.

Bottoms up . . .more purple Kool Aid. Line is forming.

[Snapolit1]

Third highest grossing card in Heritage, the Mantle 1951 Bowman, exceeded the last sale but is comfortably below the average sale price for the last year.

But everything is going up. Terrible how confused I was.

Drink up.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

After the Ruth rookie card, the second highest grossing card in Heritage this week, the Mantle gem 10 56 Topps, only dropped $22,000 from the one they sold last Fall.

Bottoms up . . .more purple Kool Aid. Line is forming.

The guy who won the one last fall is out and no longer bidding (only a guess, of course). Take one heavy bidder out and the price will go down. The market for six figure cards is thinner than the one for meat-and-potatoes cards (defined as those that most serious collectors will regularly pursue). The loss of even one bidder on the high end cards may lower the final price. Also, some of the six figure cards are plentiful. There are thousands of Sandy Koufax rookies but look what the PSA 9 went for in REA. It's a crazy price given the availability of high end examples.

[ullmandds]

nothing goes up and up forever. last year there were artificial forces driving up prices of common high grade cards. this combined with the shilling/reserve/auctions bidding on their items...past/resent behavior of auction houses has artificially driven up prices over the last few years.

if a minor correction is occurring...or more normal valuations are being realized...who cares?

[Snapolit1]

If you consigned the top three selling cards sold at Heritage this week you got about $200,000 less than they sold for a few months ago.

Yeah, sure, its up up up.

[Snapolit1]

Fourth top grossing card In Heritage, the 52 Mantle, came in at $168K, same as REA but below recent average. Really below a 217K figure from 2015.

But I'm sure that too is shooting up in value. Gulp gulp.

Yeah, I'll stop now. Done with the Kool Aid for one night.

[MattyC]

Of course the thread degenerates into the dueling banjo data points. Tit for tat. And accomplishes what? Why would one care about what prices other people's cards are selling for? Just collect what you love to look at.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Of course the thread degenerates into the dueling banjo data points. Tit for tat. And accomplishes what? Why would one care about what prices other people's cards are selling for? Just collect what you love to look at.

True collectors do that, but they tend to do it much more if what they've collected is consistently rising in value. There's nothing wrong with accumulating a little wealth doing something you love.

Best wishes,

Larry

[RedsFan1941]

Since this has become a game of picking and choosing random cards to make an absurd point, I will play.

W600 green mount Lajoie is a PSA 5 holder with an MK sold in REA last spring for 45000. A different example in an SGC 4.5 holder sold last Thursday for 60000 in Heritage.

Case closed. The baseball card market is up across the board 33 percent from a year ago.

[Leon]

I wouldn't base the market on Green W600s. Take the 2 top bidders out on those and you have 10-15k cards, imo.....

Originally Posted by RedsFan1941

Since this has become a game of picking and choosing random cards to make an absurd point, I will play.

W600 green mount Lajoie is a PSA 5 holder with an MK sold in REA last spring for 45000. A different example in an SGC 4.5 holder sold last Thursday for 60000 in Heritage.

Case closed. The baseball card market is up across the board 33 percent from a year ago.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Fourth top grossing card In Heritage, the 52 Mantle, came in at $168K, same as REA but below recent average. Really below a 217K figure from 2015.

But I'm sure that too is shooting up in value. Gulp gulp.

Yeah, I'll stop now. Done with the Kool Aid for one night.

Comparing the market for otherwise quite common 50's and '60's cards in ultra high grade with truly rare and significant vintage items (read: 25 or even far less in existence) is apples versus oranges. Sounds like someone spiked the Kool Aid.

Larry

[Snapolit1]

With rare exception, the market has dropped in the last 12 for most of the cards you guys talk about on this board. Pre war and post war. Ignore it if you want. I agree with Matty, collect what floats your boat. But acknowledge the economics of the market.

Heritage is an amazing auction house. And I have no doubt that if I looked at the top 20 cards they just sold more than 3/4 of them would be down from last Fall.

[RedsFan1941]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Yes, putting aside the fact that Heritage sold the exact same Ruth card last Fall for $717,000 . . .nah, forget it. . . .everything is going up . . . I agree. Purple Kool Aid line to the right . . . .

Two different cards, not the "same exact Ruth card." Cheaper one had poor centering, print lines and a soft corner.

Not sure why people who disagree with a blanket statement like yours are drinking kool-aid. My entire collection isn't worth a quarter of one of these cards you use as examples, so I don't care much if a "market" is flat. I've never looked at baseball cards as a market. In other words, I have no dog in this fight.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Yes, putting aside the fact that Heritage sold the exact same Ruth card last Fall for $717,000 . . .nah, forget it. . . .everything is going up . . . I agree. Purple Kool Aid line to the right . . . .

I remember a PSA 10 Rose going for that--honestly do not recall the Ruth selling for that at PSA 7. I know Tony Arnold sold one in NrMt for just under $300,000 about five years ago. Two transactions just months apart tell you very little with regard to any investment in any event, since ALL will show ups and downs in the short term. Look at the forest and not the trees over a multi-year period, and the picture is pretty clear (although I do think the Ruth will trend downwards--although the significance is immense, there are just too many to sustain those prices IMHO). A 1925 Exhibit Gehrig in G-VG could be had for right around $6500 ten to twelve years ago; now it'll take $30-$40K. Now, if you are talking gem mint 10's of 50's and 60's cards, or even "9's" in some cases, you should see an up and down trend continuing over time, as these cards exist in significant quantities in very presentable but slightly lesser grades. I prefer to think that the supply of "collectors" paying tens and even hundreds of thousands of dollars for a plastic holder and paper slip inside is pretty limited at any one time, but will vary with the ingress and egress of investor-types. $20,000 for a PSA 10 Rickey Henderson rookie, and right around $450 for a very nice 9??? There is no way in the world that the "10" is 40-50x the card that the nine is in any rational mind!

But to each his own--what a boring world this would be if everyone thought exactly alike!

Regards,

Larry

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Yes, putting aside the fact that Heritage sold the exact same Ruth card last Fall for $717,000 . . .nah, forget it. . . .everything is going up . . . I agree. Purple Kool Aid line to the right . . . .

The Ruth rookie that sold for $717K was nearly dead centered. The 7 that just sold for $552K was way off-centered with 2 glaring print lines. So much for that analogy. People are leaning more towards buying the "card", not the grade.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

The Ruth rookie that sold for $717K was nearly dead centered. The 7 that just sold for $552K was way off-centered with 2 glaring print lines. So much for that analogy. People are leaning more towards buying the "card", not the grade.

this is also totally true...im seeing more of a premium for well centered cards than ever!

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

this is also totally true...im seeing more of a premium for well centered cards than ever!

Absolutely Peter. Especially holy grail type cards such as the Ruth rookie; 51 Bowman & 52 Topps Mantles; T206 Cobbs, Johnsons, Youngs; Ruth/Gehrig Goudeys; iconic 50's/60,s rookie cards; etc. Extremely well centered cards are realizing up to 50% premiums in some intances, substantiati why VCP pricing points are rendered virtually useless when analyzing a well centered card's market value.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

The Ruth rookie that sold for $717K was nearly dead centered. The 7 that just sold for $552K was way off-centered with 2 glaring print lines. So much for that analogy. People are leaning more towards buying the "card", not the grade.

The 717k Ruth was badly off centered, about 75/25.

[Dpeck100]

There might be pockets of weakness but the trading card market as a whole is in an uptrend.

From the CLCT press release on May 3rd.


That increase was driven by a $0.8 million, or 7%, increase in coin
service revenues and a $0.4 million, or 11%, increase in cards and autograph
service revenues.



Robert Deuster, Chief Executive Officer, stated, “We are very pleased with
the performance of our Company this last quarter and the growth in revenue and
profit achieved so far this year. The year-to-date growth in our international
and modern coin businesses are indicative of our focus on organic growth in
segments where brand preference, innovation and presence are important. The
momentum in our sports card business reflects the confidence collectors have
in graded cards and the rate of card submissions remains very high. Our US
businesses during the quarter provided strength to our overall global grading
activity, where Asian demand was lower due to seasonal holidays, resulting in
another record quarterly performance. Our outlook for 2017 remains very
positive.”

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by rats60

The 717k Ruth was badly off centered, about 75/25.

Not even close. I just measured both based on super-sized scans. $717K Ruth approximately 60/40. $552 Ruth approx. 30/70 (give or take of course). That equates to a 10% difference on each border or an overall 20% disparity to the visual appeal. Bottom line is the difference between a 60/40 card and 30/70 card is immense. Now add in two glaring print lines and that strongly justifies the pricing variance between the two cards.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

Not even close. I just measured both based on super-sized scans. $717K Ruth approximately 60/40. $552 Ruth approx. 30/70 (give or take of course). That equates to a 10% difference on each border or an overall 20% disparity to the visual appeal. Bottom line is the difference between a 60/40 card and 30/70 card is immense. Now add in two glaring print lines and that strongly justifies the pricing variance between the two cards.

One thing to note are both are currently available for purchase.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

One thing to note are both are currently available for purchase.

Interesting. Thx for posting the 2 scans. The centering disparity between the two cards is quite obvious. 👍

[sterlingfox]

Maybe it's just me, but the one on the right is more off center top to bottom, has a print line of its own (albeit more faint), and is darker and not as focused as the one on the left (this could be from the scan, however). The corners are sharper on the left too.

In my book, they are nearly equal in overall appeal.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

Interesting. Thx for posting the 2 scans. The centering disparity between the two cards is quite obvious. 👍

It is also obvious that they are both badly off centered. I measured them both too and they are both more than 2:1. I don't know how you come up with 60/40. It is 70/30 to 75/25.