Market flattening definitely

[Snapolit1]

Fourth top grossing card In Heritage, the 52 Mantle, came in at $168K, same as REA but below recent average. Really below a 217K figure from 2015.

But I'm sure that too is shooting up in value. Gulp gulp.

Yeah, I'll stop now. Done with the Kool Aid for one night.

[MattyC]

Of course the thread degenerates into the dueling banjo data points. Tit for tat. And accomplishes what? Why would one care about what prices other people's cards are selling for? Just collect what you love to look at.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Of course the thread degenerates into the dueling banjo data points. Tit for tat. And accomplishes what? Why would one care about what prices other people's cards are selling for? Just collect what you love to look at.

True collectors do that, but they tend to do it much more if what they've collected is consistently rising in value. There's nothing wrong with accumulating a little wealth doing something you love.

Best wishes,

Larry

[RedsFan1941]

Since this has become a game of picking and choosing random cards to make an absurd point, I will play.

W600 green mount Lajoie is a PSA 5 holder with an MK sold in REA last spring for 45000. A different example in an SGC 4.5 holder sold last Thursday for 60000 in Heritage.

Case closed. The baseball card market is up across the board 33 percent from a year ago.

[Leon]

I wouldn't base the market on Green W600s. Take the 2 top bidders out on those and you have 10-15k cards, imo.....

Originally Posted by RedsFan1941

Since this has become a game of picking and choosing random cards to make an absurd point, I will play.

W600 green mount Lajoie is a PSA 5 holder with an MK sold in REA last spring for 45000. A different example in an SGC 4.5 holder sold last Thursday for 60000 in Heritage.

Case closed. The baseball card market is up across the board 33 percent from a year ago.

[CollectingAmericasPastime]

I find this thread very interesting.

You're saying the market is flattening definitely, yet list individual cards to prove your point.

If the stock market is down, does that mean each individual stock is down?
Conversely, if the stock market is up, is each individual stock up?

The answer to both questions is no.


Saying the card market is down, then using a few individual cards that are down, isn't an accurate assessment of the entire market. I'm not sure there's an accurate way to assess the entire market yet, at least across multiple landscapes. If you break it down into value categories ($50k-100k cards, $100k-200k, etc.), you can get somewhat of a more accurate assessment. But even then, it doesn't factor in what others have previously mentioned: if a significant bidder wins the card, they and their money are taken out of the market.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by KMayUSA6060

I find this thread very interesting.

You're saying the market is flattening definitely, yet list individual cards to prove your point.

If the stock market is down, does that mean each individual stock is down?
Conversely, if the stock market is up, is each individual stock up?

The answer to both questions is no.


Saying the card market is down, then using a few individual cards that are down, isn't an accurate assessment of the entire market. I'm not sure there's an accurate way to assess the entire market yet, at least across multiple landscapes. If you break it down into value categories ($50k-100k cards, $100k-200k, etc.), you can get somewhat of a more accurate assessment. But even then, it doesn't factor in what others have previously mentioned: if a significant bidder wins the card, they and their money are taken out of the market.

Only my opinion. No, I have not done a study of every card out there. The Dow Jones average is a sample of 30 (?) stocks that is used as a proxy of the stock market as a whole. People say the market is going down and obviously many stocks aren't. Like I said, if I looked at the top 20 cards just sold at Heritage (not unique one of a kind items like the great Cobb autographed card), I'd wager most of them, a large percentage, are down off their VCP recent average. The top 5 cards all are. Sure some aren't but I suspect most are. They are not crashing to the ground but I believe most have fallen. But it's a huge market and like you said operates on a lot of different levels.

[glynparson]

The market seems typical some up some down.

[Touch'EmAll]

You have to take into account not just the numerical grade, but characteristics within the grade, i.e. centering, tilt cuts, print dots, color, focus, gloss, other tricky tack flaws. Absolute NO WAY all cards of the same grade are created equal. There can be big price differences within the same grade due to eye appeal characteristics.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Fourth top grossing card In Heritage, the 52 Mantle, came in at $168K, same as REA but below recent average. Really below a 217K figure from 2015.

But I'm sure that too is shooting up in value. Gulp gulp.

Yeah, I'll stop now. Done with the Kool Aid for one night.

Comparing the market for otherwise quite common 50's and '60's cards in ultra high grade with truly rare and significant vintage items (read: 25 or even far less in existence) is apples versus oranges. Sounds like someone spiked the Kool Aid.

Larry

[Snapolit1]

With rare exception, the market has dropped in the last 12 for most of the cards you guys talk about on this board. Pre war and post war. Ignore it if you want. I agree with Matty, collect what floats your boat. But acknowledge the economics of the market.

Heritage is an amazing auction house. And I have no doubt that if I looked at the top 20 cards they just sold more than 3/4 of them would be down from last Fall.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

With rare exception, the market has dropped in the last 12 for most of the cards you guys talk about on this board. Pre war and post war. Ignore it if you want. I agree with Matty, collect what floats your boat. But acknowledge the economics of the market.

Heritage is an amazing auction house. And I have no doubt that if I looked at the top 20 cards they just sold more than 3/4 of them would be down from last Fall.

what's your motive for spewing your crap?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

what's your motive for spewing your crap?

Because I posted that the market has weakened and I had a list of people quickly telling me I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.

I'm not a big fan of living in make believe worlds. Much prefer reality. We can all make believe all our cards are shooting up in value if it makes you feel better but it's simply not true.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Because I posted that the market has weakened and I had a list of people quickly telling me I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.

I'm not a big fan of living in make believe worlds. Much prefer reality. We can all make believe all our cards are shooting up in value if it makes you feel better but it's simply not true.

To be clear, you made the bold assertion that the market is "flattening definitely." You were presented evidence refuting that claim. I didn't see one person boldly claiming the converse, that all prices were rising. So your drink the koolaid comments are misdirected. Why is it so hard to admit that there are winners and losers right now, and a blanket statement, either way, is a weak argument?

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

To be clear, you made the bold assertion that the market is "flattening definitely." You were presented evidence refuting that claim. I didn't see one person boldly claiming the converse, that all prices were rising. So your drink the koolaid comments are misdirected. Why is it so hard to admit that there are winners and losers right now, and a blanket statement, either way, is a weak argument?

Precisely. Just as in the coin market, certain sections of the market will be in focus and therefore "hot," while others are quiet. An interesting analysis of the coin market's history and the ups and downs of various portions of it can be found in several of Q. David Bowers' books, one of the foremost experts in that collectibles field. My own study of the card and car markets is in accord. Things that are available in reasonably significant quantity will be cyclical, especially in ultra high grade. Those which are decidedly outright rare and significant (or "popular," if you wish to use Bowers' preferred term) appreciate in value in a much more linear fashion. The time to buy is when the latter segment is in a quiet phase, but determining what will be deemed rare and significant and significantly more valuable in the future is up to the individual collector. That comes through research into both baseball history and knowledge about what's out there in cards. Some of your choices will be right on, and some will not. Condition, the last factor in the value equation, is the easiest to determine.

May your collecting be joyful in any event,

Larry

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Because I posted that the market has weakened and I had a list of people quickly telling me I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.

I'm not a big fan of living in make believe worlds. Much prefer reality. We can all make believe all our cards are shooting up in value if it makes you feel better but it's simply not true.

Steve, no one is claiming that the market is going up in order to convince themselves their collections are worth more than they are. They're saying so based on how much more they have to pay for the same cards they were buying a year ago. Yes, this is an anecdotal endeavor. But the anecdotes that are coming out suggest that your claim that the market is 'definitely' flattening out is just wrong. Cracker Jacks are up by a lot from last year. T206s are up by a lot. Rare postcards are up huge. This is covers a wide swath of the hobby. Some issues are down, no question, that's always the case. But if you speak to anyone who has a major collection and spends 6-7 figures a year on cards I'm fairly certain that they'll tell you that card prices on average are going up.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Steve, no one is claiming that the market is going up in order to convince themselves their collections are worth more than they are. They're saying so based on how much more they have to pay for the same cards they were buying a year ago. Yes, this is an anecdotal endeavor. But the anecdotes that are coming out suggest that your claim that the market is 'definitely' flattening out is just wrong. Cracker Jacks are up by a lot from last year. T206s are up by a lot. Rare postcards are up huge. This is covers a wide swath of the hobby. Some issues are down, no question, that's always the case. But if you speak to anyone who has a major collection and spends 6-7 figures a year on cards I'm fairly certain that they'll tell you that card prices on average are going up.

+1! Well said Jeff!

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Because I posted that the market has weakened and I had a list of people quickly telling me I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.

I'm not a big fan of living in make believe worlds. Much prefer reality. We can all make believe all our cards are shooting up in value if it makes you feel better but it's simply not true.

It sounds like you're not taking the appearance of the specific card into consideration in the examples you've cited. Many of these price fluctuations for cards in the same grade are due to a big premium being paid for either a nice centered card, or one that looks like it could bump. When this is followed by an off centered or tilted card that barely made its grade, it can look like the market is tanking. More often then not this is just not the case.

For the cards and auctions I follow, 50s and 60s hof rookies are down from last year. Many other cards are up. The cards I've sold that were bought in the last year or two were sold for a profit. And the ones I'm after are going for more than I would have paId a year ago. If you think that means I'm living in a make believe world so be it. But it seems like reality to me.