Market flattening definitely

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

After the Ruth rookie card, the second highest grossing card in Heritage this week, the Mantle gem 10 56 Topps, only dropped $22,000 from the one they sold last Fall.

Bottoms up . . .more purple Kool Aid. Line is forming.

The guy who won the one last fall is out and no longer bidding (only a guess, of course). Take one heavy bidder out and the price will go down. The market for six figure cards is thinner than the one for meat-and-potatoes cards (defined as those that most serious collectors will regularly pursue). The loss of even one bidder on the high end cards may lower the final price. Also, some of the six figure cards are plentiful. There are thousands of Sandy Koufax rookies but look what the PSA 9 went for in REA. It's a crazy price given the availability of high end examples.

[ullmandds]

nothing goes up and up forever. last year there were artificial forces driving up prices of common high grade cards. this combined with the shilling/reserve/auctions bidding on their items...past/resent behavior of auction houses has artificially driven up prices over the last few years.

if a minor correction is occurring...or more normal valuations are being realized...who cares?

[Snapolit1]

If you consigned the top three selling cards sold at Heritage this week you got about $200,000 less than they sold for a few months ago.

Yeah, sure, its up up up.

[Snapolit1]

Fourth top grossing card In Heritage, the 52 Mantle, came in at $168K, same as REA but below recent average. Really below a 217K figure from 2015.

But I'm sure that too is shooting up in value. Gulp gulp.

Yeah, I'll stop now. Done with the Kool Aid for one night.

[MattyC]

Of course the thread degenerates into the dueling banjo data points. Tit for tat. And accomplishes what? Why would one care about what prices other people's cards are selling for? Just collect what you love to look at.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Of course the thread degenerates into the dueling banjo data points. Tit for tat. And accomplishes what? Why would one care about what prices other people's cards are selling for? Just collect what you love to look at.

True collectors do that, but they tend to do it much more if what they've collected is consistently rising in value. There's nothing wrong with accumulating a little wealth doing something you love.

Best wishes,

Larry

[RedsFan1941]

Since this has become a game of picking and choosing random cards to make an absurd point, I will play.

W600 green mount Lajoie is a PSA 5 holder with an MK sold in REA last spring for 45000. A different example in an SGC 4.5 holder sold last Thursday for 60000 in Heritage.

Case closed. The baseball card market is up across the board 33 percent from a year ago.

[Leon]

I wouldn't base the market on Green W600s. Take the 2 top bidders out on those and you have 10-15k cards, imo.....

Originally Posted by RedsFan1941

Since this has become a game of picking and choosing random cards to make an absurd point, I will play.

W600 green mount Lajoie is a PSA 5 holder with an MK sold in REA last spring for 45000. A different example in an SGC 4.5 holder sold last Thursday for 60000 in Heritage.

Case closed. The baseball card market is up across the board 33 percent from a year ago.

[KMayUSA6060]

I find this thread very interesting.

You're saying the market is flattening definitely, yet list individual cards to prove your point.

If the stock market is down, does that mean each individual stock is down?
Conversely, if the stock market is up, is each individual stock up?

The answer to both questions is no.


Saying the card market is down, then using a few individual cards that are down, isn't an accurate assessment of the entire market. I'm not sure there's an accurate way to assess the entire market yet, at least across multiple landscapes. If you break it down into value categories ($50k-100k cards, $100k-200k, etc.), you can get somewhat of a more accurate assessment. But even then, it doesn't factor in what others have previously mentioned: if a significant bidder wins the card, they and their money are taken out of the market.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by KMayUSA6060

I find this thread very interesting.

You're saying the market is flattening definitely, yet list individual cards to prove your point.

If the stock market is down, does that mean each individual stock is down?
Conversely, if the stock market is up, is each individual stock up?

The answer to both questions is no.


Saying the card market is down, then using a few individual cards that are down, isn't an accurate assessment of the entire market. I'm not sure there's an accurate way to assess the entire market yet, at least across multiple landscapes. If you break it down into value categories ($50k-100k cards, $100k-200k, etc.), you can get somewhat of a more accurate assessment. But even then, it doesn't factor in what others have previously mentioned: if a significant bidder wins the card, they and their money are taken out of the market.

Only my opinion. No, I have not done a study of every card out there. The Dow Jones average is a sample of 30 (?) stocks that is used as a proxy of the stock market as a whole. People say the market is going down and obviously many stocks aren't. Like I said, if I looked at the top 20 cards just sold at Heritage (not unique one of a kind items like the great Cobb autographed card), I'd wager most of them, a large percentage, are down off their VCP recent average. The top 5 cards all are. Sure some aren't but I suspect most are. They are not crashing to the ground but I believe most have fallen. But it's a huge market and like you said operates on a lot of different levels.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Fourth top grossing card In Heritage, the 52 Mantle, came in at $168K, same as REA but below recent average. Really below a 217K figure from 2015.

But I'm sure that too is shooting up in value. Gulp gulp.

Yeah, I'll stop now. Done with the Kool Aid for one night.

Comparing the market for otherwise quite common 50's and '60's cards in ultra high grade with truly rare and significant vintage items (read: 25 or even far less in existence) is apples versus oranges. Sounds like someone spiked the Kool Aid.

Larry

[Snapolit1]

With rare exception, the market has dropped in the last 12 for most of the cards you guys talk about on this board. Pre war and post war. Ignore it if you want. I agree with Matty, collect what floats your boat. But acknowledge the economics of the market.

Heritage is an amazing auction house. And I have no doubt that if I looked at the top 20 cards they just sold more than 3/4 of them would be down from last Fall.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

With rare exception, the market has dropped in the last 12 for most of the cards you guys talk about on this board. Pre war and post war. Ignore it if you want. I agree with Matty, collect what floats your boat. But acknowledge the economics of the market.

Heritage is an amazing auction house. And I have no doubt that if I looked at the top 20 cards they just sold more than 3/4 of them would be down from last Fall.

what's your motive for spewing your crap?

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

what's your motive for spewing your crap?

Because I posted that the market has weakened and I had a list of people quickly telling me I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.

I'm not a big fan of living in make believe worlds. Much prefer reality. We can all make believe all our cards are shooting up in value if it makes you feel better but it's simply not true.