Mariano

Touch'EmAll · #1 01-24-2019, 02:03 PM

I researched, but could not find the MLB all-time save percentage leaders in listed format ranking from highest career percentage on down. Really curious how Rivera compares on this one particular stat - and if he is statistically significantly superior on this one stat. After all, the #1 job of a closer is to NOT blow the save.

Huge thanks if anyone could post this ranking list.

packs · #2 01-24-2019, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

I researched, but could not find the MLB all-time save percentage leaders in listed format ranking from highest career percentage on down. Really curious how Rivera compares on this one particular stat - and if he is statistically significantly superior on this one stat. After all, the #1 job of a closer is to NOT blow the save.

Huge thanks if anyone could post this ranking list.

I would venture to guess he compares pretty well considering he finished the most games in history, saved the most games in history, and has an 0.70 ERA in 141 of the most important innings a guy can pitch in the post-season.

clydepepper · #3 01-24-2019, 02:13 PM

I hope it's okay with Graig, and whoever was lucky enough to purchase this masterpiece, for me to post a scan of it from his website.

Entitled, 'Enter Sandman' :

ENTER SANDMAN Mariano_Rivera_2004_October_12.jpg

Touch'EmAll · #4 01-24-2019, 03:43 PM

Found some numbers. Career Save Percentage, only contemporaries:

Aroldis Chapman 90%
Trevor Hoffman 89%
Mariano Rivera 89%
Joe Nathan 89%
Billy Wagner 86%
Francisco Rodriguez 85%
Lee Smith 82%
John Franco 81%

And I like the stat "when leading by one run after 8th inning", odds of winning are 85%. 2 runs 93%. 3 runs 95%.

So you are going to win 4 out of 100 times more than the average when Rivera comes in to start the 9th with a 1 run lead.

Rivera's avg. games per season was 67. That translates out to Rivera being worth 2.7 additional wins per season over the league average.

Every win is gold in the world of MLB, especially in a pennant race. His 89% Saves is really good, but not necessarily super head and shoulders above other top relievers.

doug.goodman · #5 01-24-2019, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

And I like the stat "when leading by one run after 8th inning", odds of winning are 85%. 2 runs 93%. 3 runs 95%.

So you are going to win 4 out of 100 times more than the average when Rivera comes in to start the 9th with a 1 run lead.

Using that logic :

And 4 out of 100 times LESS than average with a 2 run lead

And 6 out of 100 times LESS than average with a 3 run lead

Touch'EmAll · #6 01-24-2019, 04:32 PM

doug, I don't know what % of his games he came in with 1, 2, or 3 run leads - didn't find that stat to compare 2 & 3 run games. I just assumed all 1 run games to keep it simple. How would you figure it?

doug.goodman · #7 01-24-2019, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

doug, I don't know what % of his games he came in with 1, 2, or 3 run leads - didn't find that stat to compare 2 & 3 run games. I just assumed all 1 run games to keep it simple. How would you figure it?

Shoeless_Moe posted a link to an ESPN story in the other Mo thread :

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/9...oved-respected

The numbers used there, attributed to David Smith (Retrosheet founder) are :
210 saves when he came in with an 85.7% chance of winning (1 run lead)
216 saves when he came in with a 93.7% chance of winning (2 run lead)
180 saves when he came in with a 97.5% chance of winning (3 run lead)
46 saves when he came in with better than a 97.5% chance of winning (4 runs or more)

David Smith posted a research paper on the retrosheet website :

https://www.retrosheet.org/Research/...fTheCloser.pdf

With the following conclusions :
1. The entry of a new pitcher to start the 9th inning has increased dramatically since 1980.
2. The presence of this new pitcher has had almost no effect on a team’s chances to win.
3. Ace closers bring slightly more wins than other 9th inning pitchers (92% vs 88%)
4. Performance of 9th inning pitchers is almost indistinguishable between closers and others.
5. Increased use 9th inning pitchers correlates with overall increase of relief pitchers.
6. Pitchers have had progressively shorter stints for over 100 years.
7. Current pattern of closer usage is not justified by their contributions to team wins.

Peter_Spaeth · #8 01-24-2019, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

Found some numbers. Career Save Percentage, only contemporaries:

Aroldis Chapman 90%
Trevor Hoffman 89%
Mariano Rivera 89%
Joe Nathan 89%
Billy Wagner 86%
Francisco Rodriguez 85%
Lee Smith 82%
John Franco 81%

And I like the stat "when leading by one run after 8th inning", odds of winning are 85%. 2 runs 93%. 3 runs 95%.

So you are going to win 4 out of 100 times more than the average when Rivera comes in to start the 9th with a 1 run lead.

Rivera's avg. games per season was 67. That translates out to Rivera being worth 2.7 additional wins per season over the league average.

Every win is gold in the world of MLB, especially in a pennant race. His 89% Saves is really good, but not necessarily super head and shoulders above other top relievers.

So by these stats the HOFer Lee Smith was significantly worse than the league average? I think there's an apples and oranges thing going on here though I can't articulate it.

steve B · #9 01-25-2019, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So by these stats the HOFer Lee Smith was significantly worse than the league average? I think there's an apples and oranges thing going on here though I can't articulate it.

There's a reason one of my friends always referred to him as Lee "lets make it interesting" Smith.

Peter_Spaeth · #10 01-25-2019, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve B

There's a reason one of my friends always referred to him as Lee "lets make it interesting" Smith.

He was good on the Sox in the brief time he was here, but yeah he was not the model of consistency.

JollyElm · #11 01-24-2019, 03:44 PM

Say what you will about Riviera, but it's pretty simple. I would've given anything to have him closing games for my Mets.

doug.goodman · #12 01-24-2019, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Say what you will about Riviera, but it's pretty simple. I would've given anything to have him closing games for my Mets.

In 2013 (the only year I looked at) they still would have finished third.

JollyElm · #13 01-24-2019, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

In 2013 (the only year I looked at) they still would have finished third.

I obviously meant it as a generality, but let's do some logical thinking then regarding the human element. If the Mets had the Rivera bullet in the chamber, who knows what other aspects of their game would have improved? Think of the confidence the Yankees had all of those years knowing the door would be slammed shut in the ninth with Rivera. (Yes, they had other fine players, but so did the Mets many, many times.) We all saw it. It happened with us watching, unlike theorizing about games from the 20's where cold stats alone have to tell the entire story. Uber confidence. Contrast that with the Mets. Each and every game they're in with a lead has us slump-shouldered fans (and I'm sure the entire team) thinking, "My God. What reliever is going to come in now and blow it??!!!" (Yes, I know, you'd have to get middle relievers who can actually get someone out.) Having Mariano as your go-to guy would have eliminated so much of that.

doug.goodman · #14 01-24-2019, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I obviously meant it as a generality, but let's do some logical thinking then regarding the human element. If the Mets had the Rivera bullet in the chamber, who knows what other aspects of their game would have improved? Think of the confidence the Yankees had all of those years knowing the door would be slammed shut in the ninth with Rivera. (Yes, they had other fine players, but so did the Mets many, many times.) We all saw it. It happened with us watching, unlike theorizing about games from the 20's where cold stats alone have to tell the entire story. Uber confidence. Contrast that with the Mets. Each and every game they're in with a lead has us slump-shouldered fans (and I'm sure the entire team) thinking, "My God. What reliever is going to come in now and blow it??!!!" (Yes, I know, you'd have to get middle relievers who can actually get someone out.) Having Mariano as your go-to guy would have eliminated so much of that.

You may have felt better but you would have generally had the same season outcomes. See David Smith's research paper on closers linked in my post below.

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