1952 Bowman Stan Musial PSA 10 on eBay :o

[Bram99]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

Back to the Musial, this is why I am really suspicious of PSA's involvement. It seems to me incredibly unlikely that someone would take a PSA 9 of a vintage superstar and doctor it in "hopes" of a 10, thereby risking discovery of the alteration by the TPG and a tanking in value. And who knows if you get the 10 even if you're not caught, that grade being so subjective. IMO, the only way you take that chance is if you are cock-sure you are going to beat the grader or if you somehow know that you will.

I refuse to believe that someone would take the chance to have the card cracked out, found to be altered, and turn from a "9" to "authentic" with the corresponding loss in more than 90% of it's value. The poster is dead accurate here. This is the best sign I have seen yet that this was not just Moser/PWCC but that there had to be a third actor of some kind.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Bram99

I refuse to believe that someone would take the chance to have the card cracked out, found to be altered, and turn from a "9" to "authentic" with the corresponding loss in more than 90% of it's value. The poster is dead accurate here. This is the best sign I have seen yet that this was not just Moser/PWCC but that there had to be a third actor of some kind.

It's a 3K card or whatever it is. It's meaningless to a guy making the kind of money he makes from altering cards. Huge upside, trivial downside. I think you're way off the mark here implicating PSA. This isn't a collector to whom the card means something. It's a piece of paper to him. It's a risk reward calculation to him plain and simple. Nothing else to see here.

[Bram99]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's a 3K card or whatever it is. It's meaningless to a guy making the kind of money he makes from altering cards. Huge upside, trivial downside. I think you're way off the mark here implicating PSA. This isn't a collector to whom the card means something. It's a piece of paper to him. It's a risk reward calculation to him plain and simple. Nothing else to see here.

Is there could be a grader inside. Not saying PSA actively complicit but I would expect a guy who is actively doctoring cards wouldn't take such a risk of loss. I was talking about the Musial and it appears the jump is price is much more than $3k if it got a 10, which it did.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's a 3K card or whatever it is. It's meaningless to a guy making the kind of money he makes from altering cards. Huge upside, trivial downside. I think you're way off the mark here implicating PSA. This isn't a collector to whom the card means something. It's a piece of paper to him. It's a risk reward calculation to him plain and simple. Nothing else to see here.

and they will just keep submitting the same card time after time until they get the desired result. That's what they do, crack, flip, cut, soak, spoon, color, flip crack repeat...all day everyday for 15 years. Let that sink in

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Bram99

I refuse to believe that someone would take the chance to have the card cracked out, found to be altered, and turn from a "9" to "authentic" with the corresponding loss in more than 90% of it's value. The poster is dead accurate here. This is the best sign I have seen yet that this was not just Moser/PWCC but that there had to be a third actor of some kind.

Yes. Coupled with the comment someone else made, that politics might be involved with getting 10s. Way too much downside to try this in a "normal" way....

But I wonder what the mechanics could be, to see a card like this shepherded through the system end to end. That part still seems implausible.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Yes. Coupled with the comment someone else made, that politics might be involved with getting 10s. Way too much downside to try this in a "normal" way....

But I wonder what the mechanics could be, to see a card like this shepherded through the system end to end. That part still seems implausible.

Downside only exists relative to upside. You guys are not seeing how this man operates. He risked 3K. He made 25K. 3K is a trivial risk to him. Context.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Downside only exists relative to upside. You guys are not seeing how this man operates.

You are correct Peter.

I have thrown 3k at a trade that had two days until the option expired. A ticking time bomb. He clearly had asymmetric risk here. It appears more that he has confidence in his work and isn't concerned about getting rendered with the AUTH grade or it staying there.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

You are correct Peter.

I have thrown 3k at a trade that had two days until the option expired. A ticking time bomb. He clearly had asymmetric risk here. It appears more that he has confidence in his work and isn't concerned about getting rendered with the AUTH grade or it staying there.

He made 25K from a 3K purchase which he could afford easily to blow up. Even with a relatively low chance of success it's an obvious gamble to take. He has 20 years of experience and knows his chances. Nothing to see.

[Mark17]

1390 of these things have been graded, and until this one, zero achieved a 10. I can see risking $3k for a possible $25k - I understand the concept - but the odds would have to be a little better to make it a good play. Here we're talking about trying to achieve a grade that had never been given for this card in the history of PSA.

I generally agree, it looks like what appears to have happened, happened. But I base that on not being able to see how any grading manipulation could have taken this card through the process, not on the smartness of the play.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mark17

1390 of these things have been graded, and until this one, zero achieved a 10. I can see risking $3k for a possible $25k - I understand the concept - but the odds would have to be a little better to make it a good play. Here we're talking about trying to achieve a grade that had never been given for this card in the history of PSA.

I generally agree, it looks like what appears to have happened, happened. But I base that on not being able to see how any grading manipulation could have taken this card through the process, not on the smartness of the play.

If he had an inside grader at PSA, he could make an incredible fortune just doing reviews, he wouldn't have to alter cards at all. He obviously has a tremendous eye, and he is an expert at 52 Bowmans by reputation, he probably saw one he thought might finally be the one and went with the opportunity.

[barrysloate]

I'm going with the nobody risks a 9 to try and get a 10. I don't think there is a single collector/submitter who can even tell you what the difference is. To me the only way you get a 10 is if the grader feels like giving it a 10. I smell something fishy too.

You might risk a 5 to get a 6, or a 6 to get an 8, because each of those cards has a flaw that can be improved. But a 9 is flawless. If you had a 9 and a magic wand to change it, what would you even attempt to do to make it better?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I'm going with the nobody risks a 9 to try and get a 10. I don't think there is a single collector/submitter who can even tell you what the difference is. To me the only way you get a 10 is if the grader feels like giving it a 10. I smell something fishy too.

You might risk a 5 to get a 6, or a 6 to get an 8, because each of those cards has a flaw that can be improved. But a 9 is flawless. If you had a 9 and a magic wand to change it, what would you even attempt to do to make it better?

Look what he DID do in this case, why speculate? There are before and after pics on BO. I give up, Dave and I seem to be the only ones posting who understand this in context.

[Dpeck100]

It seems like there are more white specs in the after pic on his sleeve right by his wrist.

Anyone else see that?

[CuriousGeorge]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Look what he DID do in this case, why speculate? There are before and after pics on BO. I give up, Dave and I seem to be the only ones posting who understand this in context.

Peter, without question you are correct. Any loss is meaningless in this context and I’m sure he has lost plenty. He has such made up on many more.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Look what he DID do in this case, why speculate? There are before and after pics on BO. I give up, Dave and I seem to be the only ones posting who understand this in context.

I just looked at the pictures on BO again, and the before and after look identical. Can anybody discern what was done to the 9 to improve it? My eyes aren't perfect, but they look the same to me.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Look what he DID do in this case, why speculate? There are before and after pics on BO. I give up, Dave and I seem to be the only ones posting who understand this in context.

I agree with you and would add his risk is much less then the 9 to altered value delta. If PSA kills it, it goes to SGC then BVG then back to PSA. Guy has altered thousands of cards and has enough data to know what his chance is of it slipping through, somewhere. He knows they consistently miss these types of alterations. I mean these guys are getting 52 mantles through, its incompetence at the TPG IMO

[mark evans]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Look what he DID do in this case, why speculate? There are before and after pics on BO. I give up, Dave and I seem to be the only ones posting who understand this in context.

I agree with Peter. I don't think this implicates PSA.

I agree with Barry on another point. The difference between a '9' and '10' is largely subjective, except maybe as to centering. Like Barry, I have never understood the enormous difference in values at the high end.