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  #1  
Old 02-20-2020, 11:46 AM
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This scandal is now not new. There has been plenty of time to sit back, reflect, weigh opinions, digest this whole mess, and come up with a game plan for your own collecting. Personally, I put all buying of significant (to me) cards on hold and doubt I pick up anything new of significant value anytime soon. I still enjoy collecting, however, and have changed to collecting new raw cards of the current players I like - Yelich, Trout, Steph Curry, Giannis, few others. But darn them (PSA), really sucks what they have let through. I blame them more than anyone. They are supposed to be the professionals. They have failed doing their job. If they were on the ball, had caught the majority of alterations, and slabbed accordingly, this hobby wouldn't be in this mess to begin with.
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  #2  
Old 02-20-2020, 12:08 PM
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Yep; I made the decision to liquidate my PSA collection (some of which is currently up on eBay; see the BST eBay section for more info).

I never really spent much with PWCC or Probstein, and PSA blocked me for letting people know how crooked they are. I'm really interested in seeing how this all falls out. If the class action depends on the number of cards that passed through my hands or that I graded through PSA, I'll definitely take a piece of that action.
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PWCC: The Fish Stinks From the Head
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JSA: Approved same T206 Autos before SGC
Oh, what a difference a year makes.
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  #3  
Old 02-20-2020, 12:12 PM
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The lasting effect is prices will drop, and when a recession finally hits the value of some cards will come way down.

I don't have the time, or frankly energy, to spend hours of my life sleuthing around. I'll buy cool stuff that is rare and enjoy. Days of chasing nice grade cards is winding down. Just too much risk of getting bit in the arse.

Would you plow real money into a stock if there was real questions about the legitimacy of their financial disclosures? I sure wouldn't.

Last edited by Snapolit1; 02-20-2020 at 12:36 PM.
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  #4  
Old 02-20-2020, 01:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snapolit1 View Post
The lasting effect is prices will drop, and when a recession finally hits the value of some cards will come way down.

I don't have the time, or frankly energy, to spend hours of my life sleuthing around. I'll buy cool stuff that is rare and enjoy. Days of chasing nice grade cards is winding down. Just too much risk of getting bit in the arse.

Would you plow real money into a stock if there was real questions about the legitimacy of their financial disclosures? I sure wouldn't.
That's likely the best analogy I've heard yet!
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  #5  
Old 02-20-2020, 03:10 PM
JunkyJoe JunkyJoe is offline
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Here's my best GUESS as to the total dollar amount of this fraud ...

In regards to PSA specifically, they have graded about 30 million cards so far (give or take a couple million). I'm guessing that about 25% of all PSA grading submissions are made by "favored" and/or high-volume dealers. Said dealers surely must be very much aware of how PSA's alleged "professional system" works, right?

So far, the math is: 30,000,000 X 0.25 = 7,500,000 cards.

So, just assuming that 1 out of every 5 cards submitted by those clowns is either A) altered but received a number grade ... or ... B) over-graded by means of favoritism and/or over-valuation by the submitter ...

So then: 7,500,000 X 0.20 = 1.5 million tainted PSA-slabbed cards

From what we've seen, so far, with all the outed cards from the past few months, I'll just guess each tainted card has an average "fake value gain" of around $200. I arrive at this average considering all the outed cards with value gains in the hundreds, thousands, and tens of thousands of dollars, as well as the ones that gained only $50 or less.

Also, I would think the average would remain a constant regardless of what % of tainted cards have been outed so far, i.e. "this card here gained $30 in 'fake value' ... that card there gained $400 in 'fake value' ... and that one over there gained $5,000 in 'fake value' ... " .. ... and so on.

So that brings us to the next little bit of math:

1,500,000 X $200 = $300,000,000 in PSA-related fraud ... "alleged" of course

Also, consider that my "$200-average-fake-value-gained-per-card" guess might be conservative. What if that actual average fake value gain per card is closer to $300 ... $400 ... ?? Furthermore, my "25%-of-PSA-grading-submissions" guess may be conservative. What if 30% ... 35% ... __% of PSA graded cards were submitted by those favored/high-volume dealers???

Then, if we add in the suspected fraud involving SGC slabbed cards, and to a lesser extent (IMO) the ones involving BGS/BVG ... there could be what, 1/3 added to the $ fraud total?

So how about $400,000,000, as a conservative estimate?

But wait, what about all the raw cards that have been inflated by shill bidding involving various shady individuals? How much does that add to the total, potentially?

So maybe that "billion dollar" number isn't so ridiculous after all, hmm?

Last edited by JunkyJoe; 02-20-2020 at 03:17 PM. Reason: fixed some punctuation
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  #6  
Old 02-22-2020, 09:42 AM
Fuddjcal Fuddjcal is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JunkyJoe View Post
Here's my best GUESS as to the total dollar amount of this fraud ...

In regards to PSA specifically, they have graded about 30 million cards so far (give or take a couple million). I'm guessing that about 25% of all PSA grading submissions are made by "favored" and/or high-volume dealers. Said dealers surely must be very much aware of how PSA's alleged "professional system" works, right?

So far, the math is: 30,000,000 X 0.25 = 7,500,000 cards.

So, just assuming that 1 out of every 5 cards submitted by those clowns is either A) altered but received a number grade ... or ... B) over-graded by means of favoritism and/or over-valuation by the submitter ...

So then: 7,500,000 X 0.20 = 1.5 million tainted PSA-slabbed cards

From what we've seen, so far, with all the outed cards from the past few months, I'll just guess each tainted card has an average "fake value gain" of around $200. I arrive at this average considering all the outed cards with value gains in the hundreds, thousands, and tens of thousands of dollars, as well as the ones that gained only $50 or less.

Also, I would think the average would remain a constant regardless of what % of tainted cards have been outed so far, i.e. "this card here gained $30 in 'fake value' ... that card there gained $400 in 'fake value' ... and that one over there gained $5,000 in 'fake value' ... " .. ... and so on.

So that brings us to the next little bit of math:

1,500,000 X $200 = $300,000,000 in PSA-related fraud ... "alleged" of course

Also, consider that my "$200-average-fake-value-gained-per-card" guess might be conservative. What if that actual average fake value gain per card is closer to $300 ... $400 ... ?? Furthermore, my "25%-of-PSA-grading-submissions" guess may be conservative. What if 30% ... 35% ... __% of PSA graded cards were submitted by those favored/high-volume dealers???

Then, if we add in the suspected fraud involving SGC slabbed cards, and to a lesser extent (IMO) the ones involving BGS/BVG ... there could be what, 1/3 added to the $ fraud total?

So how about $400,000,000, as a conservative estimate?

But wait, what about all the raw cards that have been inflated by shill bidding involving various shady individuals? How much does that add to the total, potentially?

So maybe that "billion dollar" number isn't so ridiculous after all, hmm?
Thanks for showing your work....That was always my problem in math class.
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  #7  
Old 02-23-2020, 05:41 PM
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egbeachley egbeachley is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JunkyJoe View Post
Here's my best GUESS as to the total dollar amount of this fraud ...

In regards to PSA specifically, they have graded about 30 million cards so far (give or take a couple million). I'm guessing that about 25% of all PSA grading submissions are made by "favored" and/or high-volume dealers. Said dealers surely must be very much aware of how PSA's alleged "professional system" works, right?

So far, the math is: 30,000,000 X 0.25 = 7,500,000 cards.

So, just assuming that 1 out of every 5 cards submitted by those clowns is either A) altered but received a number grade ... or ... B) over-graded by means of favoritism and/or over-valuation by the submitter ...

So then: 7,500,000 X 0.20 = 1.5 million tainted PSA-slabbed cards

From what we've seen, so far, with all the outed cards from the past few months, I'll just guess each tainted card has an average "fake value gain" of around $200. I arrive at this average considering all the outed cards with value gains in the hundreds, thousands, and tens of thousands of dollars, as well as the ones that gained only $50 or less.

Also, I would think the average would remain a constant regardless of what % of tainted cards have been outed so far, i.e. "this card here gained $30 in 'fake value' ... that card there gained $400 in 'fake value' ... and that one over there gained $5,000 in 'fake value' ... " .. ... and so on.

So that brings us to the next little bit of math:

1,500,000 X $200 = $300,000,000 in PSA-related fraud ... "alleged" of course

Also, consider that my "$200-average-fake-value-gained-per-card" guess might be conservative. What if that actual average fake value gain per card is closer to $300 ... $400 ... ?? Furthermore, my "25%-of-PSA-grading-submissions" guess may be conservative. What if 30% ... 35% ... __% of PSA graded cards were submitted by those favored/high-volume dealers???

Then, if we add in the suspected fraud involving SGC slabbed cards, and to a lesser extent (IMO) the ones involving BGS/BVG ... there could be what, 1/3 added to the $ fraud total?

So how about $400,000,000, as a conservative estimate?

But wait, what about all the raw cards that have been inflated by shill bidding involving various shady individuals? How much does that add to the total, potentially?

So maybe that "billion dollar" number isn't so ridiculous after all, hmm?
The Billion Dollar fraud should be calculated on the final sales price, not the value gained by the fraudsters. The true value of the Altered cards is around 20% of the fraudulent sales price. Give or take. So do the same calculation of final sales price times 80%.

Last edited by egbeachley; 02-23-2020 at 05:41 PM.
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  #8  
Old 02-26-2020, 10:09 AM
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peterose4hof peterose4hof is offline
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Originally Posted by MULLINS5 View Post
Nowadays when someone opens a pack, and there's a dinged card, they can send it back and have the company make them a new one.

That's not a pack pulled card anymore. It's manufactured to be in mint condition.

I do believe future generations of collectors will be OK with trimming, cleaning, color touch, etc. At the rate we're at, they really have no other choice.
This is false. The manufacturer will send you a card that is deemed of equal value, but they don't reprint the card.
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  #9  
Old 02-26-2020, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by peterose4hof View Post
This is false. The manufacturer will send you a card that is deemed of equal value, but they don't reprint the card.
Eh, you can call it more of a half truth. It is their general policy that if they do replace a damaged card they replace it with something in their stock they consider equal book value, but Topps has before on rare occasions reprinted or recreated damaged cards if the card is high profile enough or if the comp value is high enough to require more than a handful of cards to reach. This is my understanding at least.
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  #10  
Old 02-20-2020, 05:34 PM
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Originally Posted by 100backstroke View Post
This scandal is now not new. There has been plenty of time to sit back, reflect, weigh opinions, digest this whole mess, and come up with a game plan for your own collecting. Personally, I put all buying of significant (to me) cards on hold and doubt I pick up anything new of significant value anytime soon. I still enjoy collecting, however, and have changed to collecting new raw cards of the current players I like - Yelich, Trout, Steph Curry, Giannis, few others. But darn them (PSA), really sucks what they have let through. I blame them more than anyone. They are supposed to be the professionals. They have failed doing their job. If they were on the ball, had caught the majority of alterations, and slabbed accordingly, this hobby wouldn't be in this mess to begin with.
Not to a great extent, but I have also dabbled in raw modern singles of current players. I haven't totally stopped buying vintage, but I have changed the way I scratch my baseball card itch. I also have learned to love low grade vintage issues that I am familiar with from reliable sources.

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  #11  
Old 02-20-2020, 05:44 PM
CMIZ5290 CMIZ5290 is offline
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PSA is obviously crooked to some degree, but this board is Pro SGC, they are equally dirty.... I know for a fact of an incident where SGC graded a high profile HOF T206 as an SGC 84 originally several years ago. Then at a show, they promptly bumped it to an 88 holder.....3 months later, the card was bumped to an SGC 92 holder.... Then, 3 weeks later, the card was put in an SGC 96 holder...Same card, three bumps in 90 days. The value on this card of a grade of 7 versus a grade of 9 is tens of thousands of dollars, same card with all of these bumps,just different holders, and you can imagine who the player might be.... This shit is all over the place with grading Companies, and if you think the graders aren't corrupted by bribes, you are living in Fantasyland at Disney World....

Last edited by CMIZ5290; 02-20-2020 at 05:53 PM.
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  #12  
Old 02-20-2020, 06:00 PM
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Originally Posted by CMIZ5290 View Post
PSA is obviously crooked to some degree, but this board is Pro SGC, they are equally dirty.... I know for a fact of an incident where SGC graded a high profile HOF T206 as an SGC 84 originally several years ago. Then at a show, they promptly bumped it to an 88 holder.....3 months later, the card was bumped to an SGC 92 holder.... Then, 3 weeks later, the card was put in an SGC 96 holder...Same card, three bumps in 90 days. The value on this card of a grade of 7 versus a grade of 9 is tens of thousands of dollars, same card with all of these bumps.... This shit is all over the place with grading Companies, and if you think the graders aren't corrupted by bribes, you are living in Fantasyland at Disney World....
Its a conspiracy, says all the trimmers and people using relationships to get favors done.
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  #13  
Old 02-21-2020, 12:07 PM
tschock tschock is offline
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Originally Posted by CMIZ5290 View Post
PSA is obviously crooked to some degree, but this board is Pro SGC, they are equally dirty.... I know for a fact of an incident where SGC graded a high profile HOF T206 as an SGC 84 originally several years ago. Then at a show, they promptly bumped it to an 88 holder.....3 months later, the card was bumped to an SGC 92 holder.... Then, 3 weeks later, the card was put in an SGC 96 holder...Same card, three bumps in 90 days. The value on this card of a grade of 7 versus a grade of 9 is tens of thousands of dollars, same card with all of these bumps,just different holders, and you can imagine who the player might be.... This shit is all over the place with grading Companies, and if you think the graders aren't corrupted by bribes, you are living in Fantasyland at Disney World....
On the plus side, it's a great turn-around time. Who wants to wait 6 months each submission to get that kind of bump?
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  #14  
Old 02-21-2020, 06:29 PM
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On the plus side, it's a great turn-around time. Who wants to wait 6 months each submission to get that kind of bump?
Ok that’s clever..
thanks for the chuckle.
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  #15  
Old 02-21-2020, 08:18 PM
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It’s laughable how collectors continue to shake their fist with one hand and write large checks with the other.
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  #16  
Old 02-21-2020, 08:49 PM
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It’s laughable how collectors continue to shake their fist with one hand and write large checks with the other.
That explains why the handwriting is shaky. I thought there was wave of Parkinson's sweeping through the hobby.
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  #17  
Old 02-22-2020, 09:17 AM
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It’s laughable how collectors continue to shake their fist with one hand and write large checks with the other.
Worse than laughable...It's a detriment to the hobby.
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