Skyrocketing Card Values Lately - Theories?

[swarmee]

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...ostcount=25597
This was 11 days ago, and the value just keeps dropping.

[seanofjapan]

I think there are three factors at work all of which have to do with wealthy collectors (who are the only ones who can afford to affect the market for high value stuff).

1) Wealthy collectors aren't getting economically hammered by the lockdowns and resulting layoffs like everyone else is;

2) Wealthy collectors are bored and stuck at home. They aren't able to spend money on their other hobbies right now, so they are spending more on cards.

3) Stocks are pretty risky right now so they may also see plowing money into cards as a safe investment.

If any of these three things change, you might see a price correction.

[NiceDocter]

Let me ask you this..... do you really think the cards themselves are going up or is it just the holders they are in? A truly rare card that is sought after will bring a good price almost no matter what the condition where many of the current "hot" cards are only up in a "10" or a "9" holder...... look and see what they are selling for as a 6 or a 7 ( or raw for that matter) and look at those 7s and tell me they are really much different from the ones selling for 100x more! Guess you can tell Im kinda old school eh???

[swarmee]

I think the OP is mainly asking about modern cards (1980+), and a lot of you are answering about top tier vintage cards. The placement of this question on a Pre-war board is probably what's causing the confusion. Vintage cards are going up some this past quarter, but nothing like the bubble market happening in modern basketball and baseball.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by NiceDocter

Let me ask you this..... do you really think the cards themselves are going up or is it just the holders they are in? A truly rare card that is sought after will bring a good price almost no matter what the condition where many of the current "hot" cards are only up in a "10" or a "9" holder...... look and see what they are selling for as a 6 or a 7 ( or raw for that matter) and look at those 7s and tell me they are really much different from the ones selling for 100x more! Guess you can tell Im kinda old school eh???

I could guess you had a brain...unlike the idiots

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

I think there are three factors at work all of which have to do with wealthy collectors (who are the only ones who can afford to affect the market for high value stuff).

1) Wealthy collectors aren't getting economically hammered by the lockdowns and resulting layoffs like everyone else is;

2) Wealthy collectors are bored and stuck at home. They aren't able to spend money on their other hobbies right now, so they are spending more on cards.

3) Stocks are pretty risky right now so they may also see plowing money into cards as a safe investment.

If any of these three things change, you might see a price correction.

I agree with this, although the change would have to be very significant to see a meaningful price correction in vintage. More likely the economy returns to something like normalcy and we see a slow march higher.

My comments are limited to vintage baseball cards. That’s what this board is about.

[packs]

I don't know if I would call buying Zion rookies an investment. More like speculation. And there's no fun in speculating unless the risk and rewards are high; so you've got a lot of people pumping right now. But if Zion is Greg Oden and Luka cools off you'll see the same dump.

[maniac_73]

Even if Zion is the next Lebron James I don't think those prices can sustain themselves. There is zero room to go up

[packs]

Originally Posted by maniac_73

Even if Zion is the next Lebron James I don't think those prices can sustain themselves. There is zero room to go up

But there's a lot of money to make after the PUMP. You just don't want to still be left holding the bag after the dump.

[Phil68]

I'm astounded that a 1981 Topps Magic Johnson PSA 10 has gone from a $400-$500 card to a $3700-$4000 card in less than 2 years.
A bought a 1981 Bird last year way above the current market (at that time) for $1125.00 because it was truly a spectacular card. I figured I bought well into the upside, but I love the card so I just moved on and enjoyed it. I have come to find it's a $4k card now. That is ridiculous. I guess it only takes 2-3 guys to blow a market out of sight, but I have never imagined how hot these cards could have become. Frankly, I hope the market comes down quite a bit. There are many cards I figured would creep up over time, but I had plenty of time to find and collect. Now I'm totally priced out. I loved Magic. I wanted an exceptional 1981 Topps card of him. No chance, Lol.

[glynparson]

Originally Posted by packs

But there's a lot of money to make after the PUMP. You just don't want to still be left holding the bag after the dump.

I have been hearing this for a long time. Heard it about Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Derek Jeter, Lebron, Mike Trout and many others. Facts are all
Of them are way up over there crazy rookie prices. If Zion performs the cards will go even higher. We may not think it’s logical or agree with it but that’s how the history of that market is. Same with the complaints about buying something rare in high grade vs just rare. Not everyone feels the same way we do and the market can go up and down on either. Of course there will be corrections along the way. Almost nothing always goes up every sale. But pretending the market is how we think it should be instead of how it is doesn’t lend itself to a credible discussion.

[MailboxBaseball]

Originally Posted by swarmee

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...ostcount=25597
This was 11 days ago, and the value just keeps dropping.

Wow great info Swarmee, thanks for the link too. I also liked your previous reply. Thanks for more valuable insight.

The poster seemed pretty optimistic about a rebound on his collection. Do you know if the plummet has continued?