Skyrocketing Card Values Lately - Theories?

[maniac_73]

Even if Zion is the next Lebron James I don't think those prices can sustain themselves. There is zero room to go up

[packs]

Originally Posted by maniac_73

Even if Zion is the next Lebron James I don't think those prices can sustain themselves. There is zero room to go up

But there's a lot of money to make after the PUMP. You just don't want to still be left holding the bag after the dump.

[Phil68]

I'm astounded that a 1981 Topps Magic Johnson PSA 10 has gone from a $400-$500 card to a $3700-$4000 card in less than 2 years.
A bought a 1981 Bird last year way above the current market (at that time) for $1125.00 because it was truly a spectacular card. I figured I bought well into the upside, but I love the card so I just moved on and enjoyed it. I have come to find it's a $4k card now. That is ridiculous. I guess it only takes 2-3 guys to blow a market out of sight, but I have never imagined how hot these cards could have become. Frankly, I hope the market comes down quite a bit. There are many cards I figured would creep up over time, but I had plenty of time to find and collect. Now I'm totally priced out. I loved Magic. I wanted an exceptional 1981 Topps card of him. No chance, Lol.

[Exhibitman]

Guys, basketball and baseball are two completely different markets.

--Basketball cards truly are global in reach. I've seen card shows in Europe and they focus heavily on basketball. Asia also has tremendous basketball collecting.

--Nearly all basketball cards are postwar, so there isn't the vintage-postwar-modern gap and resulting disdain that baseball card collecting has. No derisive references to "shiny crap".

--The better question is whether basketball cards are catching up to baseball and football. I think that with the exception of certain mainstream sets and stars basketball cards have been underpriced for years. The proof is that prices are going up across a broad swath of basketball, not just MJ, LeBron and current speculative cards like Zion. For example, a PSA 8 Dr. J. RC (1972 Topps) has more than doubled in the last year. Now, is it overpriced at $1900 or was it criminally underpriced at $800? The breadth of price increases in basketball signals that something is up besides just boredom.

Not to say that the other theories are wrong. Far from it. There is a lot of easy money sloshing around right now. Lots of white collar and professional class workers did not lose their jobs and haven't seen the reductions in earnings that were initially feared, and some of them (the ones who own small businesses) are even receiving substantial free money in the form of forgivable PPP loans from the SBA. Add lots of free time and limited entertainment options to the mix (which reduces expenditures on event attendance, vacations, movies, concerts, restaurants, etc., to zero) and you get some cash freed up for collecting.

I don't think the prices on basketball will hold but I don't see a slide back down to where they were either. I've sold off all of my early MJ cards--way too much profit there to leave it alone--but I am looking for other cards actively to fill out my earlier basketball collection at the right prices.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Guys, basketball and baseball are two completely different markets.

--Basketball cards truly are global in reach. I've seen card shows in Europe and they focus heavily on basketball. Asia also has tremendous basketball collecting.

--Nearly all basketball cards are postwar, so there isn't the vintage-postwar-modern gap and resulting disdain that baseball card collecting has. No derisive references to "shiny crap".

--The better question is whether basketball cards are catching up to baseball and football. I think that with the exception of certain mainstream sets and stars basketball cards have been underpriced for years. The proof is that prices are going up across a broad swath of basketball, not just MJ, LeBron and current speculative cards like Zion. For example, a PSA 8 Dr. J. RC (1972 Topps) has more than doubled in the last year. Now, is it overpriced at $1900 or was it criminally underpriced at $800? The breadth of price increases in basketball signals that something is up besides just boredom.

Not to say that the other theories are wrong. Far from it. There is a lot of easy money sloshing around right now. Lots of white collar and professional class workers did not lose their jobs and haven't seen the reductions in earnings that were initially feared, and some of them (the ones who own small businesses) are even receiving substantial free money in the form of forgivable PPP loans from the SBA. Add lots of free time and limited entertainment options to the mix (which reduces expenditures on event attendance, vacations, movies, concerts, restaurants, etc., to zero) and you get some cash freed up for collecting.

I don't think the prices on basketball will hold but I don't see a slide back down to where they were either. I've sold off all of my early MJ cards--way too much profit there to leave it alone--but I am looking for other cards actively to fill out my earlier basketball collection at the right prices.

Well said. Especially, the global reach of basketball and the vintage-postwar-modern gap.

[packs]

Is the global market that much of a factor? eBay allows you to filter overseas auctions and block overseas buyers as a seller.

I honestly think the jump in prices you're referencing (Dr. J rookie, Bird / Magic rookie) is due to two factors:

The Last Dance
Kobe Bryant's untimely death

I think the real question is whether or not the prices are now standards or at their ultimate height.

[Dpeck100]

Just this past week a guy I know on EBAY turned down $23,500 for his 1986 Panini Italian Mike Tyson PSA 10.

The buyer settled for the BGS 9.5 at $11,750.

The market is on fire. It is across the board and there is money coming in from every direction.

[MailboxBaseball]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Guys, basketball and baseball are two completely different markets.

--Basketball cards truly are global in reach. I've seen card shows in Europe and they focus heavily on basketball. Asia also has tremendous basketball collecting.

--Nearly all basketball cards are postwar, so there isn't the vintage-postwar-modern gap and resulting disdain that baseball card collecting has. No derisive references to "shiny crap".

--The better question is whether basketball cards are catching up to baseball and football. I think that with the exception of certain mainstream sets and stars basketball cards have been underpriced for years. The proof is that prices are going up across a broad swath of basketball, not just MJ, LeBron and current speculative cards like Zion. For example, a PSA 8 Dr. J. RC (1972 Topps) has more than doubled in the last year. Now, is it overpriced at $1900 or was it criminally underpriced at $800? The breadth of price increases in basketball signals that something is up besides just boredom.

Not to say that the other theories are wrong. Far from it. There is a lot of easy money sloshing around right now. Lots of white collar and professional class workers did not lose their jobs and haven't seen the reductions in earnings that were initially feared, and some of them (the ones who own small businesses) are even receiving substantial free money in the form of forgivable PPP loans from the SBA. Add lots of free time and limited entertainment options to the mix (which reduces expenditures on event attendance, vacations, movies, concerts, restaurants, etc., to zero) and you get some cash freed up for collecting.

I don't think the prices on basketball will hold but I don't see a slide back down to where they were either. I've sold off all of my early MJ cards--way too much profit there to leave it alone--but I am looking for other cards actively to fill out my earlier basketball collection at the right prices.

I agree that the global reach of basketball is truly the X-Factor here. I'm from NJ/Philadelphia and I remember recently hearing a story about a US traveler seeing a Joel Embiid billboard in India of all places.

And of course eBay has the International depot for mailing which i think is in Kentucky, so that helps open the door to selling to anyone in the world. Russia, China, whoever.

[glynparson]

Originally Posted by packs

But there's a lot of money to make after the PUMP. You just don't want to still be left holding the bag after the dump.

I have been hearing this for a long time. Heard it about Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Derek Jeter, Lebron, Mike Trout and many others. Facts are all
Of them are way up over there crazy rookie prices. If Zion performs the cards will go even higher. We may not think it’s logical or agree with it but that’s how the history of that market is. Same with the complaints about buying something rare in high grade vs just rare. Not everyone feels the same way we do and the market can go up and down on either. Of course there will be corrections along the way. Almost nothing always goes up every sale. But pretending the market is how we think it should be instead of how it is doesn’t lend itself to a credible discussion.

[Exhibitman]

That's true, Glyn. Only thing I'd add to that is not to forget the enjoyment component of this hobby. I can't believe I am saying this, but money isn't everything. Some stuff you buy because it is a good deal, and on those things I strive to be as bloodless and coldly calculating as I can. But some things you buy because you want them, and depriving yourself of them because they aren't immediately profitable is not a good place to be. A smart guy (think his name was Leon ) told me years ago, when I was pondering spending 10% more than I wanted on a tough card, that it wasn't worth sweating that spending increment on something that I wanted, and he was right. I've never regretted spending a bit more than a 'deal' price on something I really wanted and could afford. Ironically, in nearly every case where I've done that the cards have gone up in value way more than the rate of inflation or interest or whatever, so they were good investments by and large too.

[bounce]

Lots of factors that are pushing the market higher, agree with DPeck that there seems to be money coming in from all directions and it's coming at all kinds of different items.

I've definitely noticed "lower" feedback scores on many of my eBay sales, which is where I sell most of my cards.

One thing to keep in mind - while I appreciate the discussion of the "good investment" cards have been, I think it's important to just remember that it's not "realized" until it's cash in the bank. Until then, it's "paper gains" and those don't spend too easily.

Personally, I've been trying very hard to "trade up" into more stable quality cards for my collection, using the funds from the "rocket ships" people have mentioned - Lebron, Kobe, Trout, Brady, others, etc.

I have bought some various modern cards, too, but again I've tried to be pretty picky about those. At least for me, the higher prices have been great because it's encouraged me to pare down the number of cards I own, but it's also affording me some opportunities on some things I'd normally otherwise pass on.

Plus, I'm having fun! At least for me, that's got to be a big component. It's still a hobby for me, not a job.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by bounce

One thing to keep in mind - while I appreciate the discussion of the "good investment" cards have been, I think it's important to just remember that it's not "realized" until it's cash in the bank. Until then, it's "paper gains" and those don't spend too easily.

The question kind of answers itself: if the soaring value of your collection is giving you nosebleeds, it is probably time to take the profit.

[Dpeck100]

The Lebron that has been heavily touted as the record breaking modern card is already at 900k.


https://goldinauctions.com/2003_04_U...-LOT60435.aspx


There was a Tik Tok video of Giannis showcasing quite the collection of his own cards.

Justin Beiber has been seen on Instagram showing off his high grade Pokemon collection.

Steve Wozniak was showing off a signed Gem Mint 10 Black Lotus.

Cards are becoming big time and when you get people with serious cash move into markets they make waves and it becomes real.

Years ago Evan Mathis decided he wanted to own a 1982 Wrestling All Stars Series A Hulk Hogan PSA 9. Overnight the market went up significantly on the card because someone with a lot of resources wanted to own it and now the market had to compete with their buying power. Now the prices that Evan drove the market to for that card are cheap.

I use Watchcount.com constantly to monitor activity and there are so many different ID's winning cards and as I stated before the number of watchers has exploded. Watchers don't always mean buyers but when there is a flurry of activity quick on auctions they usually build into a strong finish and this seems to be happening over and over all over the place.

I sold a card today to a buyer with 16 feedback and I checked them out and they have 25 purchases in the past month and a new account. A great offer came in on my Tyson second year Italian Gritti back and I sold it for $225. This was a $40 card a year or so ago in a PSA 5 grade. This is basically the market.

The issue right now is interest rates on cash are zero and all cards are up so if one wants to cash in and sit on the sidelines there is nothing to be made on the safety of cash and unless you find mispriced listings there are no deals to be had so you will be on the outside looking in.

I think also there are a lot of people out there that realize you can win so easily if you buy raw cards and sub them and this keeps money pouring in. I just bought a set of the 1982 Wrestling All Stars Series A and thought the Hogan would grade higher than it did and paid a $200 super express grading fee. Even with that much higher than normal grading fee I could easily make three times my money on the buy and probably more like four and so these kinds of opportunities keep people hunting and buying. I can't buy a stock and say well I know with a little more money pumped in it will go up significantly.

With all the negativity in the world right now it sure has been fun to watch and it is giving many of us something positive to focus on and for that I am grateful.