What is happening with baseball card prices?

jchcollins · #1 01-31-2021, 12:34 PM

I think a lot, but not all of it - is pandemic boredom and some FOMO creeping in when people look at what Ruth, Cobb, and other popular prewar cards have done in the past two years or so. The postwar HOF key cards and marquee rookies are in the same boat.

I would not expect the bubble to last forever, but some cards will probably not dramatically lose steam even if it doesn't. I don't think multiple rounds of government checks and sports gamblers having to stay home for so long have helped us at all in the past year, however.

Exhibitman · #2 02-01-2021, 10:58 AM

Yes.

The cards you cited were undervalued. They are now part of a bubble. When it pops it will drop some but I don't think back to where it was.

A 1952 Mays PSA 3 vg, for example, was a $800-$1200 card for years until it started up. It is now over $3K and likely to go up more before it pops. Will it drop back to $800? Doubtful. That hasn't been the pattern for greatly appreciated cards over the decades. They go up and come down some. Assuming, of course, that the world doesn't turn to shit on us all at once.

hcv123 · #3 02-01-2021, 02:15 PM

1) Finite supply of vintage cards
2) HUGE increase in demand for 2 primary reasons including Sports cards and memorabilia being recognized as a legitimate "investment" and the "covid effect" - many people rediscovering collecting and getting back in the market.
3) Lots of money sloshing around the economy courtesy of the stimulus.

Only if we see a significant drop in demand (which I am not so sure is coming) would there be downward pressure on prices.

The 1952 Topps Mantle is a great example - you can go and buy one any day of the week - the supply exists. The price has continued to go up in response to demand - think for a minute about the fact that a PSA 9 just sold for 5.2 MILLION dollars! If the Mantle is the yardstick - what are the rest of the significant 52's worth? Or many other vintage cards?

An anecdotal observation - It seems to me there are a lot fewer higher grade 7-10 cards coming to market. I think about this in a context of old muscle cars - I used to be able to go to a car show and see rows and rows of incredible cars including some of the most rare. It seems these days most of these cars have been gobbled up and sit in private collections for years.

Another thought I have is the prices relative to other collected categories - How much does a great or rare painting sell for? Previously mentioned cars? Coins? Art other than paintings? Jewelry? In that context Sports cards and memorabilia are in their financial infancy.

One way or another, things are going to stay interesting....... Collect what you enjoy and you'll rarely be sorry.

irv · #4 02-01-2021, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hcv123

1) Finite supply of vintage cards
2) HUGE increase in demand for 2 primary reasons including Sports cards and memorabilia being recognized as a legitimate "investment" and the "covid effect" - many people rediscovering collecting and getting back in the market.
3) Lots of money sloshing around the economy courtesy of the stimulus.

Only if we see a significant drop in demand (which I am not so sure is coming) would there be downward pressure on prices.

The 1952 Topps Mantle is a great example - you can go and buy one any day of the week - the supply exists. The price has continued to go up in response to demand - think for a minute about the fact that a PSA 9 just sold for 5.2 MILLION dollars! If the Mantle is the yardstick - what are the rest of the significant 52's worth? Or many other vintage cards?

An anecdotal observation - It seems to me there are a lot fewer higher grade 7-10 cards coming to market. I think about this in a context of old muscle cars - I used to be able to go to a car show and see rows and rows of incredible cars including some of the most rare. It seems these days most of these cars have been gobbled up and sit in private collections for years.

Another thought I have is the prices relative to other collected categories - How much does a great or rare painting sell for? Previously mentioned cars? Coins? Art other than paintings? Jewelry? In that context Sports cards and memorabilia are in their financial infancy.

One way or another, things are going to stay interesting....... Collect what you enjoy and you'll rarely be sorry.

I only seen a tiny bit of the last Mecum auction but how did prices compare to previous auctions?
I believe it was Carol Shelby's Cobra that sold for 5.3-5 million. I also believe that was a new record?

cardsagain74 · #5 02-01-2021, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hcv123

Another thought I have is the prices relative to other collected categories - How much does a great or rare painting sell for? Previously mentioned cars? Coins? Art other than paintings? Jewelry? In that context Sports cards and memorabilia are in their financial infancy.

I don't think we've caught the Superman #1 comic yet. If one the Mantle PSA 10s ever sells during this, maybe we'll see. Not sure if one of those has sold in forever either though (dunno much about them)

Kutcher55 · #6 02-01-2021, 03:16 PM

I'm quite bullish on the next 6 months. After that, who knows. I can see a leveling off post Covid but that '52 Mays card is only going up.

Vintage baseball has seen a steady growth these past 12-18 months. Certain players went up substantially (Ruth, Aaron, Mays and Robinson in particular) but a lot of other players didn't move that much, especially compared to basketball and to modern.

In the past ten days since Hank Aaron's passing, vintage has made a big jump and it seems to be involving a greater variety of old cards. There's likely another stimulus coming and the sports card market has been in the news quite a bit lately. You've got mainstream sports media like ESPN and The Ringer talking about it (the first episode of The Ringer sports card podcast was horrid btw). The momentum is huge and the next 6 months should see more growth.

Yes, some collectors will be taking a profit, but more people continue to enter the market. Things look good and the bubble is expanding like 5-piece wad of chewing gum being blown by Kurt freaken Bevacqua. Put me in the bulls corner.

Republicaninmass · #7 02-01-2021, 05:18 PM

When everyone is talking about how easy it is to flip ( insert.item here) in a weeks time, be fearful. Just my opinion

Popcorn · #8 02-01-2021, 05:35 PM

It’s crazy, the cheapest 52 jackie on eBay right now is $25,000 for a bvg 4

hcv123 · #9 02-01-2021, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

I don't think we've caught the Superman #1 comic yet. If one the Mantle PSA 10s ever sells during this, maybe we'll see. Not sure if one of those has sold in forever either though (dunno much about them)

The guys who own those things rarely sell them. I think the last Gem MT Mantle sold 20+ years ago in an REA auction for like 30K!

As the supply of the "best" is removed from the market, it becomes a question of "the best available" - Is it only me or have others seen a dwindling offering of some of the Key rookies and stars graded 8-10?

Exhibitman · #10 02-01-2021, 04:43 PM

Supply of many cards is drying up; no one wants to leave money on the table. This is probably a very good time to start selling off the chaff.

Wanaselja · #11 02-01-2021, 05:05 PM

2 random observations.

1) I agree that the Ringer’s card podcast wasn’t good. “Clemens PSA 10 RC’s are relatively affordable”.

2) I think the surge in vintage softens slightly when Spring Training starts and everyone is projecting Soto or Tatis to win MVP.

That’s all. And as per forum rules,
Adam Wanaselja.

cardsagain74 · #12 02-01-2021, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hcv123

The guys who own those things rarely sell them. I think the last Gem MT Mantle sold 20+ years ago in an REA auction for like 30K!

As the supply of the "best" is removed from the market, it becomes a question of "the best available" - Is it only me or have others seen a dwindling offering of some of the Key rookies and stars graded 8-10?

Oh I meant the Superman #1. Looks like 2014 was the last sale for it.

Still a ways to go before getting close to top artwork. But then those are one of a kind

rats60 · #13 02-01-2021, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hcv123

The guys who own those things rarely sell them. I think the last Gem MT Mantle sold 20+ years ago in an REA auction for like 30K!

As the supply of the "best" is removed from the market, it becomes a question of "the best available" - Is it only me or have others seen a dwindling offering of some of the Key rookies and stars graded 8-10?

It sold for 275k in 2001.