Let's talk about Hall of Fame candidates who have been "neglected"

molenick · #1 07-06-2021, 07:35 PM

There are two (at least two) ways to look at this. I don�t really like the "this [bad selection] is in and this guy was better so he should be in" approach. I call this the "Baines and Haines Problem". There are hundreds of pitchers better than Jesse Haines that are not in the Hall (at least according to Baseball Reference rankings), but that doesn't mean they all should be in. I like the "Magee Method" where there is a player you can make a reasonable argument is the best at his position not in the Hall.

I am not smart enough to determine what "best" means so I will just present for your consideration the highest ranked player at each position (as per Baseball Reference) eligible for the Hall who is not tainted by either accusation or proof of steroid or HGH use. Pete Rose and Joe Jackson are not eligible so they are not included below, nor are active players (since they are not eligible yet).

c Thurman Munson (Joe Mauer ranks higher but has not been retired for five years)
1b Todd Helton
2b Bobby Grich
ss Bill Dahlen
3b Scott Rolen
lf Sherry Magee
cf Kenny Lofton (Carlos Beltran ranks higher but has not been retired for five years)
rf Dwight Evans
sp Jim McCormick
rp Bobby Shantz

The last one was a surprise to me but Shantz pitched in 537 games and started 171, so I guess he qualifies as a relief pitcher. However, over 25% of his career WAR came from his MVP season as a starter. After him is Tom Gordon, who was also both a reliever and starter (890 games, 206 starts) but whose WAR was more evenly distributed. After him is Firpo Marberry, who I was surprised to see had about the same game splits as Shantz (551 games, 186 starts) and who I think is the best candidate of the three.

Peter_Spaeth · #2 07-06-2021, 07:42 PM

I have never understood how Grich gets so high up in those WAR/JAWS ratings. Here are his other Baseball Reference metrics.

Something does not add up for me.

Black Ink
Batting - 8 (355), AverageHOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink
Batting - 40 (784), AverageHOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 42 (504), LikelyHOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 32 (305), AverageHOFer ≈ 50

And even more telling:
Similar Batters
1.Toby Harrah (908.6)
2.Brandon Phillips (898.2)
3.Jay Bell (894.8)
4.Bret Boone (892.6)
5.Jhonny Peralta (884.1)
6.Asdrubal Cabrera (883.7)
7.Chase Utley (882.6)
8.Sal Bando (879.9)
9.Ian Kinsler (876.1)
10.Travis Fryman (871.6

Jason19th · #3 07-07-2021, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have never understood how Grich gets so high up in those WAR/JAWS ratings. Here are his other Baseball Reference metrics.

Something does not add up for me.

Black Ink
Batting - 8 (355), AverageHOFer ≈ 27

Gray Ink
Batting - 40 (784), AverageHOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 42 (504), LikelyHOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 32 (305), AverageHOFer ≈ 50

And even more telling:
Similar Batters
1.Toby Harrah (908.6)
2.Brandon Phillips (898.2)
3.Jay Bell (894.8)
4.Bret Boone (892.6)
5.Jhonny Peralta (884.1)
6.Asdrubal Cabrera (883.7)
7.Chase Utley (882.6)
8.Sal Bando (879.9)
9.Ian Kinsler (876.1)
10.Travis Fryman (871.6

Two factors explain Grich�s war vs other metrics

1. 16.8 of his war is from defense

2. He was very consistent. Never had a bad year and never had a crazy good year. Therefore he was always valuable but didn�t lead the league in much

Tabe · #4 07-07-2021, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason19th

Two factors explain Grich�s war vs other metrics

1. 16.8 of his war is from defense

2. He was very consistent. Never had a bad year and never had a crazy good year. Therefore he was always valuable but didn�t lead the league in much

Also the fact that 2B was not exactly an offensive position during Grich's career. He had a lot of 13 homer, 50 RBI seasons that just don't look all that impressive.

Peter_Spaeth · #5 07-07-2021, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tabe

Also the fact that 2B was not exactly an offensive position during Grich's career. He had a lot of 13 homer, 50 RBI seasons that just don't look all that impressive.

Maybe the numbers don't support me but I would rather have Jeff Kent or Chase Utley in the Hall than Grich. Whitaker too.

perezfan · #6 07-08-2021, 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Maybe the numbers don't support me but I would rather have Jeff Kent or Chase Utley in the Hall than Grich. Whitaker too.

I like Grich a lot, but also prefer Kent and Utley over him for the Hall. I would put Whitaker on a par with Grich. I prefer a smaller HOF, but would not mind if all four of them eventually got in. Some of the recent inductees would bug me more than all 4 of those second baggers getting in.

MacDice · #7 07-08-2021, 12:46 AM

Buck ONeil

Mike D. · #8 07-08-2021, 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by perezfan

I like Grich a lot, but also prefer Kent and Utley over him for the Hall. I would put Whitaker on a par with Grich. I prefer a smaller HOF, but would not mind if all four of them eventually got in. Some of the recent inductees would bug me more than all 4 of those second baggers getting in.

I think it comes down to offense vs. defense, peak vs longevity, with a touch of era/recency bias. That being said, looking at Utley and Kent�s raw numbers, they do feel more like HOFers. I honestly think all four belong.

My borderline personal 2B case is Pedroia. Borderline WAR total, but pretty much done at 33 due to injury. Strong rate stats for the position, ROY, MVP, WS wins, great defense, and a fun �gritty underdog gamer� vibe.

Mike D. · #9 07-06-2021, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molenick

The last one was a surprise to me but Shantz pitched in 537 games and started 171, so I guess he qualifies as a relief pitcher. However, over 25% of his career WAR came from his MVP season as a starter. After him is Tom Gordon, who was also both a reliever and starter (890 games, 206 starts) but whose WAR was more evenly distributed. After him is Firpo Marberry, who I was surprised to see had about the same game splits as Shantz (551 games, 186 starts) and who I think is the best candidate of the three.

Yeah, I wish BB-R wouldn't list relievers with a significant number of starts on the list...it really skews things. It also really shows just how amazing Mariano Rivera was, with only 10 career starts (in his rookie year, when he had a 5.51 ERA).

I think the next pure reliever to get elected is Billy Wagner. I think Joe Nathan may eventually get in, as well.

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