Card prices skyrocketing

[Marc Simmons]

Originally Posted by ajjohnsonsoxfan

I lived through the 90's card gold rush (albeit as a teenager) and remember the exuberance of that time period with people multiples deep at every table at the Anaheim CA national. But I've never seen anything like what's happening right now to card prices across both modern and vintage and across the spectrum of sports.

I think we've all talked about the increase since last March when COVID set in, but what's happening since mid December I can't explain. Prices double, tripling and more for major rookie offerings across football, basketball and baseball.

Someone posted a YT video with a guy saying that the big money investors (hedge funds etc) have moved into the hobby. Don't know if that's true but could explain what's going on.

What a wild ride and will be interesting to see where and if it ends

IMO, it’s shill bidding on EBay. A seller bids his item up higher than it would’ve gone for, then the next guy sells same card and says that a comp value/worth. In some cases I think the seller who does the shill bidding wins his own card under a different username. Sometimes I see the same card come up for sale that within a week and sometimes it’s same seller or the supposed buyer who just won it.

[Johnny630]

I think there will be a nice correction soon. Let’s get back to pre Feb 2021 vintage numbers and I’ll be happy.

[Snowman]

I'm buying.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Marc Simmons

IMO, it’s shill bidding on EBay. A seller bids his item up higher than it would’ve gone for, then the next guy sells same card and says that a comp value/worth. In some cases I think the seller who does the shill bidding wins his own card under a different username. Sometimes I see the same card come up for sale that within a week and sometimes it’s same seller or the supposed buyer who just won it.

You think shill bidding on ebay is what is responsible for the market growth since last December? As in you actually believe that it's the primary factor driving prices across the entire market?

[mrreality68]

I am a Ruth and Jackson guy.

I do not see any dips.

Plus the cards from the 20’s for Ruth that used to be fairly priced or under valued are escalating in prices and keeps going up auction after auction.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

I am a Ruth and Jackson guy.

I do not see any dips.

Plus the cards from the 20’s for Ruth that used to be fairly priced or under valued are escalating in prices and keeps going up auction after auction.

I think it would take a full blown collapse of the economy for Ruth prices to fall. Ruth cards from his playing days and the 52 Mantle seem pretty impervious to most of the market swings we've seen over the past couple years.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think it would take a full blown collapse of the economy for Ruth prices to fall. Ruth cards from his playing days and the 52 Mantle seem pretty impervious to most of the market swings we've seen over the past couple years.

In March a PSA 4 52T Mantle sold for $148,000. The market right now is about half of that. That card has gone down from its peak just like every other one has.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[MattyC]

An SGC 4 just sold for 100k at Heritage. There's lots of different data points out there and these days different cards in the same grade, and in different grading companies, can sell for very wildly different amounts based on the card. So it makes it very hard if not impossible to generalize about the market. I keep hoping for card prices to come down across the board, yet it seems prices just keep escalating overall for the best stuff.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

In March a PSA 4 52T Mantle sold for $148,000. The market right now is about half of that. That card has gone down from its peak just like every other one has.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Do not expect a collapse but very surprised the prices keep goin up

last night Love of the Game Auction a 1917 CM Babe Ruth PSA 1 went for $111K and

It was just a few months ago a SGC 2 sold for around $120k I do not recall which auction house

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Do not expect a collapse but very surprised the prices keep goin up

last night Love of the Game Auction a 1917 CM Babe Ruth PSA 1 went for $111K and

It was just a few months ago a SGC 2 sold for around $120k I do not recall which auction house

On the cards I was watching, LOTG prices crushed it last night (that CM Ruth was very pretty for grade). And prices in Heritage the auction before were silly high. Prices on big boy cards, especially old and rarer (as opposed to 1950+ cards that are as common as the last name Smith), just seem to go up and up.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Do not expect a collapse but very surprised the prices keep goin up

last night Love of the Game Auction a 1917 CM Babe Ruth PSA 1 went for $111K and

It was just a few months ago a SGC 2 sold for around $120k I do not recall which auction house

I don't really follow the market for Ruth cards so I looked up this 17CM Ruth on the PSA auction site. It is obviously a rare card so not many sales. I see a PSA 2 sold in 2018 for $66,000 so the price has basically doubled in the last 3 years.

Does that sound right for Ruth cards? I don't want to read too much into a few sales of a very limited card but it doesn't seem like this one got much of a runup.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

In March a PSA 4 52T Mantle sold for $148,000. The market right now is about half of that. That card has gone down from its peak just like every other one has.

You left out the relevant part of that sale though. It wasn't just some random PSA 4. It was an extremely well-centered PSA 4, which for this particular card, easily doubles it's value over an off-centered 4. See pic below of the card you're referring to.

Worth noting is that this sale was from Goldin on 3/7. However, in that exact same auction, ending on the same day was a decently centered PSA 5 that sold for $116k, and a PSA 8 that sold for $1,353,000. That exact same PSA 8 (cert #09044593) which fetched $1.3M in the same auction as the PSA 4 just sold last month at Goldin for $2,029,500, a profit of nearly $700k in less than 8 months.

If that PSA 4 were to be relisted today, it probably sells for more than $150k.

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Snowman

You left out the relevant part of that sale though. It wasn't just some random PSA 4. It was an extremely well-centered PSA 4, which for this particular card, easily doubles it's value over an off-centered 4. See pic below of the card you're referring to.

Worth noting is that this sale was from Goldin on 3/7. However, in that exact same auction, ending on the same day was a decently centered PSA 5 that sold for $116k, and a PSA 8 that sold for $1,353,000. That exact same PSA 8 (cert #09044593) which fetched $1.3M in the same auction as the PSA 4 just sold last month at Goldin for $2,029,500, a profit of nearly $700k in less than 8 months.

If that PSA 4 were to be relisted today, it probably sells for more than $150k.

So true. Grades aren't created equal. Might be a technical 4 but looks nicer than many grades higher.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snowman

You left out the relevant part of that sale though. It wasn't just some random PSA 4. It was an extremely well-centered PSA 4, which for this particular card, easily doubles it's value over an off-centered 4. See pic below of the card you're referring to.

Worth noting is that this sale was from Goldin on 3/7. However, in that exact same auction, ending on the same day was a decently centered PSA 5 that sold for $116k, and a PSA 8 that sold for $1,353,000. That exact same PSA 8 (cert #09044593) which fetched $1.3M in the same auction as the PSA 4 just sold last month at Goldin for $2,029,500, a profit of nearly $700k in less than 8 months.

If that PSA 4 were to be relisted today, it probably sells for more than $150k.

Yes that card had decent centering, but so did the one that sold for $75k after that. It is not a card that would go for anywhere near 200% VCP, there are cards like that out there but that is not one of them.

My best guess is 2 guys got a bad case of FOMO and massively outbid on that card. It's an example of what was happening 9 months ago.

The PSA 8 pricing is interesting. There wasn't a dip on that card, although the $1.3m sale in March was less than a $1.6m sale in January which is unusual, since the market was climbing steadily from December through March. And all those cards look like really strong 8's.

I think it is hard to generalize from just a few sales. I have been tracking 100 centered Mantle cards for the last 3 years. I have posted about it before and don't want to get into the weeds of that on this thread, but if you are interested just PM me your email and we can talk further about it.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[glynparson]

Originally Posted by Snowman

You think shill bidding on ebay is what is responsible for the market growth since last December? As in you actually believe that it's the primary factor driving prices across the entire market?

Yeah these clowns have some ridiculous theories. No ridiculous conspiracy they don’t run to the Max on. They get a colonel of truth and push it to absurd extremes. Bunch of bitter jerks screaming at the kids to get off their damn lawn.