Card prices skyrocketing

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

In March a PSA 4 52T Mantle sold for $148,000. The market right now is about half of that. That card has gone down from its peak just like every other one has.

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Do not expect a collapse but very surprised the prices keep goin up

last night Love of the Game Auction a 1917 CM Babe Ruth PSA 1 went for $111K and

It was just a few months ago a SGC 2 sold for around $120k I do not recall which auction house

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Do not expect a collapse but very surprised the prices keep goin up

last night Love of the Game Auction a 1917 CM Babe Ruth PSA 1 went for $111K and

It was just a few months ago a SGC 2 sold for around $120k I do not recall which auction house

On the cards I was watching, LOTG prices crushed it last night (that CM Ruth was very pretty for grade). And prices in Heritage the auction before were silly high. Prices on big boy cards, especially old and rarer (as opposed to 1950+ cards that are as common as the last name Smith), just seem to go up and up.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Do not expect a collapse but very surprised the prices keep goin up

last night Love of the Game Auction a 1917 CM Babe Ruth PSA 1 went for $111K and

It was just a few months ago a SGC 2 sold for around $120k I do not recall which auction house

I don't really follow the market for Ruth cards so I looked up this 17CM Ruth on the PSA auction site. It is obviously a rare card so not many sales. I see a PSA 2 sold in 2018 for $66,000 so the price has basically doubled in the last 3 years.

Does that sound right for Ruth cards? I don't want to read too much into a few sales of a very limited card but it doesn't seem like this one got much of a runup.

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[MattyC]

I was in on the CM Ruth at the 80k level, but did not feel comfortable when it got higher. Seems like a big jump based on the most recent data comps available, and to me it's not like Babe won an MVP or anything to make it spike that hard. Was a pretty "1" though and congrats to whoever now owns it.

I don't agree with calling some cards "big boy" cards— that sounds kinda douchey to be really blunt. One person's "big boy" card is to someone else a card they don't give a shit about. It's all personal choice what one collects.

[aconte]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I was in on the CM Ruth at the 80k level, but did not feel comfortable when it got higher. Seems like a big jump based on the most recent data comps available, and to me it's not like Babe won an MVP or anything to make it spike that hard. Was a pretty "1" though and congrats to whoever now owns it.

I don't agree with calling some cards "big boy" cards— that sounds kinda douchey to be really blunt. One person's "big boy" card is to someone else a card they don't give a shit about. It's all personal choice what one collects.

I would agree with this. As someone who collects mainly 50's baseball cards,
I'd sell that Ruth in a heartbeat to buy the common stuff.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I I don't agree with calling some cards "big boy" cards— that sounds kinda douchey to be really blunt. One person's "big boy" card is to someone else a card they don't give a shit about. It's all personal choice what one collects.

At the risk of being even more douchey, there are cards that are more expensive, or desired, than others - fact. I dont know what to call these cards, so I called them big boy because in my business-world, large/major deals are sometimes referred to as big boy deals. I am not talking about what someone collects- collect what you want. This thread is talking about the prices of cards in today's market. My point, which I think was obvious, regardless of what I call them, is that the Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, Jacksons, pre war blue-chip (another subjective term) HOFrs from blue chip or iconic pre war sets are going up, have gone up since April, and show no signs of stopping.

[jsfriedm]

We might see what happens if three things occur at the same time: the Fed raising rates, a prolonged lockout, and a renewed pandemic. Not sure even Babe Ruth can beat that.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

At the risk of being even more douchey, there are cards that are more expensive, or desired, than others - fact. I dont know what to call these cards, so I called them big boy because in my business-world, large/major deals are sometimes referred to as big boy deals. I am not talking about what someone collects- collect what you want. This thread is talking about the prices of cards in today's market. My point, which I think was obvious, regardless of what I call them, is that the Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, Jacksons, pre war blue-chip (another subjective term) HOFrs from blue chip or iconic pre war sets are going up, have gone up since April, and show no signs of stopping.

Agree. If you are using that reference, is it not safe to assume that it's pointed at how valuable a card is? If I could afford some of those cards, the last thing I would be offended by is how other collectors refer to them.

[jchcollins]

I think the market overall has corrected on some cards / types of cards, but not everything has sunk back to former lows, of course. I have some midgrade postwar HOF slabs now that are still selling for 3x or more what I paid for them in say, 2016 or 2017.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

At the risk of being even more douchey, there are cards that are more expensive, or desired, than others - fact. I dont know what to call these cards, so I called them big boy because in my business-world, large/major deals are sometimes referred to as big boy deals. I am not talking about what someone collects- collect what you want. This thread is talking about the prices of cards in today's market. My point, which I think was obvious, regardless of what I call them, is that the Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, Jacksons, pre war blue-chip (another subjective term) HOFrs from blue chip or iconic pre war sets are going up, have gone up since April, and show no signs of stopping.

"Douchey" is not how I'd describe your posts, Ryan. You appear to be very passionate about your collecting and appear to have the money to pursue it your way. Good on ya. As for what to call a deal that you feel is significant, yeah, that's a real conundrum. Whether you characterize a deal by cost or by the rarity of the cards involved, there is always going to be someone who will see it as bragging when you talk about it. People definitely do not like "big boy" or "advanced" or "elite" or any other label that characterizes a transaction by magnitude, but that's not something we are ever going to get past. Schadenfreude and envy are just part of the make-up of our species. Way I see it, you do your thing, I do mine, and we all let each other collect the way we want to and try to come together as a community...of nitwits who play with childrens' toys and drive our non-collecting mates crazy with our excessive, obsessive focus. My main reaction when I see cards breaking records and soaring into the fine art price level is that maybe, just maybe, my wife won't think I am quite as big an idiot for having a SDB full of old cardboard toys.

[Rhotchkiss]

I appreciate that Adam.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

I don't really follow the market for Ruth cards so I looked up this 17CM Ruth on the PSA auction site. It is obviously a rare card so not many sales. I see a PSA 2 sold in 2018 for $66,000 so the price has basically doubled in the last 3 years.

Does that sound right for Ruth cards? I don't want to read too much into a few sales of a very limited card but it doesn't seem like this one got much of a runup.

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Yes Alan a PSA 2 sold for $66k several years ago and yet a 1 just sold for $111k. If you google the various types of Ruth cards you will see the price escalation. Even on the cards from 1921-1929 that used to be undervalued or under appreciated. But now with the other cards being priced out of most collectors hands these other Ruth cards are starting to really jump in their prices also.

Generally speaking with are seeing the Ruth’s, Jackson, and the likes cards going for up to 3 times the price from just a few years ago. And it does not look it will stop

[JollyElm]

407. Hit By Q-Pid’s Arrow
The newfound desire for cards with qualifiers in the current boom market, as they are now regularly selling for much larger sums than ever before.

I live around the margins of collecting, constantly picking up really nice (to me) cards that often have qualifiers attached. Man, have things changed. The price rocket of OC cards has travelled to another galaxy, and off-centered all-time greats have reached ridiculous highs, and the asking prices continue to surge. They used to be had cheaply...and those days are long gone. Yowza!!!!

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

407. Hit By Q-Pid’s Arrow
The newfound desire for cards with qualifiers in the current boom market, as they are now regularly selling for much larger sums than ever before.

I live around the margins of collecting, constantly picking up really nice (to me) cards that often have qualifiers attached. Man, have things changed. The price rocket of OC cards has travelled to another galaxy, and off-centered all-time greats have reached ridiculous highs, and the asking prices continue to surge. They used to be had cheaply...and those days are long gone. Yowza!!!!

Very good point and I love your of list of collectorisms

[Exhibitman]

I'm not sure Collins-McCarthy is a good barometer of anything because desirable players are seldom offered. Cards like that move independently of 'market' forces; they are high on want lists.

As I mentioned in the 'down prices' thread, I track Exhibit cards (for obvious reasons) and the 1920s superstars are moving up in every auction, even in lower grades. HA sold a low grade 1925 Gehrig for $105,000, an unthinkable price a few years ago. Ruth is the king, as befits the GOAT. At this point any solo 1920s Exhibit, even a 1-2 quality card, is a $2,000+ item, more for a tough issue. I would guesstimate that a 1923 Ruth in roughest grade would sell for $5,000+. The real mover lately has been Cobb. He always lagged Ruth and Gehrig by a substantial margin but his cards are going into four figures now. Johnson cards have been stealthily gaining price to the point where you are looking at four figures for a mid-grade card. Next up I would think would be Speaker, Hornsby and Alexander. Those are in the $400-$600 range now in mid-grade. I'd probably stock up on lower grade but presentable examples of those (if you can find them); if things roll on they should be good for a 50%-100% pop. Eddie Collins cards are criminally low. I was sorely tempted to chase the 1925 last night but I chased the E254 instead; gotta love the Horner portraits on those cards.

An interesting story has been the RCs in the Exhibit sets, besides Gehrig. Grove's PC Back is commanding some serious respect now ($8400 in a 5 last night) as is Foxx's PC Back. I expect them to be at $10K in the next 2-5 years.

Another card that has moved up is the Exhibit Jackie Robinson. The principal issue there has been trying to ID which year it debuted. I know for sure it was in the 1950 run because I've seen the checklist card for that year. Not sure before that, but it is an early card. LOTG closed a lot of 2 at $720, raw. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit the level of the Paige card.

All assumptions are premised on the economy not crapping the bed...

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I'm not sure Collins-McCarthy is a good barometer of anything because desirable players are seldom offered. Cards like that move independently of 'market' forces; they are high on want lists.

As I mentioned in the 'down prices' thread, I track Exhibit cards (for obvious reasons) and the 1920s superstars are moving up in every auction, even in lower grades. HA sold a low grade 1925 Gehrig for $105,000, an unthinkable price a few years ago. Ruth is the king, as befits the GOAT. At this point any solo 1920s Exhibit, even a 1-2 quality card, is a $2,000+ item, more for a tough issue. I would guesstimate that a 1923 Ruth in roughest grade would sell for $5,000+. The real mover lately has been Cobb. He always lagged Ruth and Gehrig by a substantial margin but his cards are going into four figures now. Johnson cards have been stealthily gaining price to the point where you are looking at four figures for a mid-grade card. Next up I would think would be Speaker, Hornsby and Alexander. Those are in the $400-$600 range now in mid-grade. I'd probably stock up on lower grade but presentable examples of those (if you can find them); if things roll on they should be good for a 50%-100% pop. Eddie Collins cards are criminally low. I was sorely tempted to chase the 1925 last night but I chased the E254 instead; gotta love the Horner portraits on those cards.

An interesting story has been the RCs in the Exhibit sets, besides Gehrig. Grove's PC Back is commanding some serious respect now ($8400 in a 5 last night) as is Foxx's PC Back. I expect them to be at $10K in the next 2-5 years.

Another card that has moved up is the Exhibit Jackie Robinson. The principal issue there has been trying to ID which year it debuted. I know for sure it was in the 1950 run because I've seen the checklist card for that year. Not sure before that, but it is an early card. LOTG closed a lot of 2 at $720, raw. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit the level of the Paige card.

All assumptions are premised on the economy not crapping the bed...

Great info and tracking

Thanks for sharing

[uyu906]

I used to think that qualifiers dropped the value of a card about 2 full grades.
So, example, a PSA8 Miscut of a 1960 Mantle All-Star would be valued like a regular PSA6. Is that no longer the case?

Originally Posted by JollyElm

407. Hit By Q-Pid’s Arrow
The newfound desire for cards with qualifiers in the current boom market, as they are now regularly selling for much larger sums than ever before.

I live around the margins of collecting, constantly picking up really nice (to me) cards that often have qualifiers attached. Man, have things changed. The price rocket of OC cards has travelled to another galaxy, and off-centered all-time greats have reached ridiculous highs, and the asking prices continue to surge. They used to be had cheaply...and those days are long gone. Yowza!!!!

[JollyElm]

Originally Posted by uyu906

I used to think that qualifiers dropped the value of a card about 2 full grades.
So, example, a PSA8 Miscut of a 1960 Mantle All-Star would be valued like a regular PSA6. Is that no longer the case?

I got one for that, too:

228. Registry Disparity
The mathematical rule of thumb that a card with a qualifier is equal to a straight graded card two whole numbers lower.

See also: The Binary Conundrum - owning a graded card with a qualifier, but since the ‘defect’ is so minor, it definitely doesn’t merit having a two-grades-lower drop in value.

---

It's definitely just a (silly?) 'rule of thumb' with not a lot behind it. When I chat up someone with a huge BIN price on an off-centered card, and see if they'll adjust their price for the 'two-grades-lower' theory, they almost always want nothing to do with it. Some of them I wholeheartedly agree with (because the cards look great), but I know the others will never sell the cards for anywhere near their asking prices.

[uyu906]

Thanks Darren - I appreciate your sharing your experiences with sellers and the two grades "myth".

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I got one for that, too:

228. Registry Disparity
The mathematical rule of thumb that a card with a qualifier is equal to a straight graded card two whole numbers lower.

See also: The Binary Conundrum - owning a graded card with a qualifier, but since the ‘defect’ is so minor, it definitely doesn’t merit having a two-grades-lower drop in value.

---

It's definitely just a (silly?) 'rule of thumb' with not a lot behind it. When I chat up someone with a huge BIN price on an off-centered card, and see if they'll adjust their price for the 'two-grades-lower' theory, they almost always want nothing to do with it. Some of them I wholeheartedly agree with (because the cards look great), but I know the others will never sell the cards for anywhere near their asking prices.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by uyu906

I used to think that qualifiers dropped the value of a card about 2 full grades.
So, example, a PSA8 Miscut of a 1960 Mantle All-Star would be valued like a regular PSA6. Is that no longer the case?

It's never been a hard rule, just a starting point. If you track auction prices and build a model, you'll find that each qualifier ultimately has a different effect on pricing. Also, it's location on the card matters as well. A miscut card is by far the most aggressive drop in value. It can often sell for 3 full grades below its non qualified grade. An OC qualifier can go for 1, 2, or 3 grades below. It often depends more on the set and how difficult those cards are to find centered in general. A card with a stain can sell between 1 or 2 grades below depending on the stain and where it's located and how severe it is. Gum stains are worse than wax stains since wax stains are often easy to remove and gum stains aren't. Also, some stains can easily be removed just with water, others can't. This all has an effect on pricing. Marked cards, same thing. Is there ink on the front or the back? And how big is the ink mark or writing? I've seen cards with mk qualifiers where you can't even find the marking. So long story short, it depends. But a miscut card is by far the worst qualifier in terms of resale value. That will kill you every time. It's almost always a full grade less in value than even an OC designation.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Yes Alan a PSA 2 sold for $66k several years ago and yet a 1 just sold for $111k. If you google the various types of Ruth cards you will see the price escalation. Even on the cards from 1921-1929 that used to be undervalued or under appreciated. But now with the other cards being priced out of most collectors hands these other Ruth cards are starting to really jump in their prices also.



Generally speaking with are seeing the Ruth’s, Jackson, and the likes cards going for up to 3 times the price from just a few years ago. And it does not look it will stop

A 3x increase over the last 3 years is probably average for a baseball card. For instance, Card Ladder's baseball index has gone from 4k to 14k in the last two years, which is 3.5x.

I would guess that pre war cards have had a steadier climb than post war and modern, and with so few sales transactions to look at you didn't really see a spike and dip the first half of the year. And it looks to me like all blue chippers are staying strong, from whatever era.





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