Cards as an inflation hedge ?

[BobC]

There have already been people convicted of abusing the PPP program and now facing/serving prison time, and will likely be more to come. And for a lot of you with criticisms and complaints about what was and wasn't done, isn't it wonderful how 20/20 hindsight is always so much clearer than facing the unknown future in a totally unprecedented worldwide situation that descended upon all of us so fast, it made it seem like it all happened virtually overnight.

The main goal was to keep the U.S. economy going despite the pandemic, and in reality, based on where we are today and after all the problems and issues that have occurred since this all began (as many of you naysayers are so dutifully pointing out), we sure as heck could be in a lot worse shape.

Initially the loans were to try and keep as many as possible people working, getting paid, and then spending their money so the economy wouldn't falter. Not knowing how things would turn out, both government and businesses were guessing as to who may or may not need the stimulus money. So if it ended up that some businesses got PPP loans they ultimately seemed to not need, the government wanted them to have it anyway so they'd continue to spend the money on whatever, even if it ended up being on baseball cards. That's the only way to keep the economy going, by having people continue to spend money. Because of the quarantines and shutdowns, the government knew certain industries, jobs, and businesses where going to get whacked more than others, and there was no way they'd be contributing to the economy like they had been. In which case, you would expect the government to be praying these more fortunate people and businesses not feeling the pressure of the pandemic as much, would spend even more of the stimulus money they were getting to hopefully make up for lost economic activity of the unfortunate businesses and people that did get whacked because of Covid.

It was a deliberate and calculated move by the government to give businesses this extra money to spend. I don't know how many of you realized that when the PPP loan forgiveness program was first put into operation, the IRS advised businesses that according to then current tax laws, none of those payroll or other expenses deemed as being paid by the PPP loan proceeds, and then forgiven, would be tax deductible. The government specifically made sure to enact and have signed into law, new legislation so that those forgiven expenses would absolutely be tax deductible. Had the government not done this, businesses and business owners would have been forced to not spend a significant amount of the PPP loan stimulus money they received, and instead hold on to it in contemplation of sending it right back to the government as taxes. And that would have succeeded in significantly crippling the government's main reason for having given out the PPP money in the first place, to stimulate the economy. Why do you think all these various payments, loans, and programs were always referred to as "stimulus" money.

So for those people/businesses possibly being accused of not being of high moral or ethical character for having taken PPP loan money they were eligible for (or any other stimulus moneys for that matter) that it turned out they may not have needed to survive the pandemic after all, and then had the loan forgiven, take heart. You are not bad at all. In fact, the government was totally behind in encouraging and aiding everyone to getting as much stimulus money and aid as they could, so they in turn could spend as much as possible to keep the U.S. economy flowing.

We're still not out of this Covid pandemic yet either. So for all you critics against those who legitimately got and are spending their stimulus money, quit complaining and apparently advocating to potentially damage our economy instead. Maybe you should all take a page out of the old carpenter's handbook, but instead of remembering to measure twice and then cut once, you should all think twice, before speaking even once.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by BobC

There have already been people convicted of abusing the PPP program and now facing/serving prison time, and will likely be more to come. And for a lot of you with criticisms and complaints about what was and wasn't done, isn't it wonderful how 20/20 hindsight is always so much clearer than facing the unknown future in a totally unprecedented worldwide situation that descended upon all of us so fast, it made it seem like it all happened virtually overnight.

The main goal was to keep the U.S. economy going despite the pandemic, and in reality, based on where we are today and after all the problems and issues that have occurred since this all began (as many of you naysayers are so dutifully pointing out), we sure as heck could be in a lot worse shape.

Initially the loans were to try and keep as many as possible people working, getting paid, and then spending their money so the economy wouldn't falter. Not knowing how things would turn out, both government and businesses were guessing as to who may or may not need the stimulus money. So if it ended up that some businesses got PPP loans they ultimately seemed to not need, the government wanted them to have it anyway so they'd continue to spend the money on whatever, even if it ended up being on baseball cards. That's the only way to keep the economy going, by having people continue to spend money. Because of the quarantines and shutdowns, the government knew certain industries, jobs, and businesses where going to get whacked more than others, and there was no way they'd be contributing to the economy like they had been. In which case, you would expect the government to be praying these more fortunate people and businesses not feeling the pressure of the pandemic as much, would spend even more of the stimulus money they were getting to hopefully make up for lost economic activity of the unfortunate businesses and people that did get whacked because of Covid.

It was a deliberate and calculated move by the government to give businesses this extra money to spend. I don't know how many of you realized that when the PPP loan forgiveness program was first put into operation, the IRS advised businesses that according to then current tax laws, none of those payroll or other expenses deemed as being paid by the PPP loan proceeds, and then forgiven, would be tax deductible. The government specifically made sure to enact and have signed into law, new legislation so that those forgiven expenses would absolutely be tax deductible. Had the government not done this, businesses and business owners would have been forced to not spend a significant amount of the PPP loan stimulus money they received, and instead hold on to it in contemplation of sending it right back to the government as taxes. And that would have succeeded in significantly crippling the government's main reason for having given out the PPP money in the first place, to stimulate the economy. Why do you think all these various payments, loans, and programs were always referred to as "stimulus" money.

So for those people/businesses possibly being accused of not being of high moral or ethical character for having taken PPP loan money they were eligible for (or any other stimulus moneys for that matter) that it turned out they may not have needed to survive the pandemic after all, and then had the loan forgiven, take heart. You are not bad at all. In fact, the government was totally behind in encouraging and aiding everyone to getting as much stimulus money and aid as they could, so they in turn could spend as much as possible to keep the U.S. economy flowing.

We're still not out of this Covid pandemic yet either. So for all you critics against those who legitimately got and are spending their stimulus money, quit complaining and apparently advocating to potentially damage our economy instead. Maybe you should all take a page out of the old carpenter's handbook, but instead of remembering to measure twice and then cut once, you should all think twice, before speaking even once.

The government has given out too much free money. It has bad side effects.
.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Leon

The government has given out too much free money. It has bad side effects.
.

100% agree

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by Leon

The government has given out too much free money. It has bad side effects.
.

I suppose it depends on what end of the economic spectrum you’re on. I’m sure there are many in need that are thankful.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Leon

The government has given out too much free money. It has bad side effects.
.

Leon,

Maybe yes, maybe no. But to keep stimulating the economy and have it keep going so it didn't collapse, that was the main concern. I'm sure a lot of people in the government were looking back to the 2008 economic collapse and thinking, "We're going to have this again AND a health crisis, at the same time?".

We don't know what may have happened had the government done nothing. Of course now we've got a record amount of national debt we're sitting on, an infrastructure that definitely needs maintenance and updating, more expenses and costs we're going to continue to incur and see coming in regards to all the energy and global warming issues, and rising inflation and costs everywhere, coupled with supply chain issues and shortages around the globe. And this pandemic and how that all eventually plays out still isn't known yet.

We're going to be feeling something from this alright, like with all these tax laws changes already occurring that are being made to try and bring in more tax dollars to pay for everything. But in regards to the economy itself, there's even been talk about bringing back more stimulus payments to individuals now. Which just goes to show how worried the government may still be about the overall economy going forward. At least the government is doing something to try and keep things going well in regards to the economy. Would you really rather they do nothing at all and let the fate of our economy be left solely in the hands of Wall Street and the business leaders in this country, and trust they'll somehow band together to put their interests on the back burner to look out for everyone else in all this? And think about that extra hard before you answer!

My gripe was with the people talking about the businesses getting PPP money that may have ended up not needing it to survive the pandemic after all, and how therefore, they were somehow morally or ethically wrong. They were only doing what the government wanted and felt they needed them to do to keep that economy going. If they want to blame someone, blame the government maybe, but why blame the businesses? But before you start blaming the government so much, what would you rather they had done instead? Who knows? But at least for where we are right now after almost two years of this pandemic, we sure could be a lot worse off. Enough of my crap............

[egri]

Originally Posted by Leon

The government has given out too much free money. It has bad side effects.
.

Out of my parents, my sister and me, I have the most stable income by far (military; I get paid unless there’s a government shutdown where the DoD isn’t funded), and I was the only one who received all three of the stimulus checks.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Again I am no socialist, but handing massive sums of money out to the wealthy and encouraging them to spend it on luxury goods doesn't seem like the most efficient way for a government to stimulate the economy in a way that benefits the people who are most in need. Small businesses teetering on the brink, trying to keep their people working, a different matter. Anyhow Ryan, shame on you for not taking the money, you didn't do your part.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Again I am no socialist, but handing massive sums of money out to the wealthy and encouraging them to spend it on luxury goods doesn't seem like the most efficient way for a government to stimulate the economy in a way that benefits the people who are most in need. Small businesses teetering on the brink, trying to keep their people working, a different matter. Anyhow Ryan, shame on you for not taking the money, you didn't do your part.

Peter, I don't disagree with you at all, but when does the government ever seem to get anything completely right? LOL I was in the middle of all this crap with multiple clients, and nobody really knew what was going on from day to day. The government kept trying to adapt and keep up with ever increasing demands and issues from the pandemic's effect on the country overall, and was doing the best they could on the fly. And thank God they did something. Business owners I and colleagues dealt with didn't know what was going to happen, and many were running scared. With the imposed lock downs and quarantines, a lot may have just decided to close the doors and send people home. Which would have vastly increased the number of people getting on unemployment. That's one thing many people never even thought about, without the PPP loans keeping people working, the unemployment costs would have skyrocketed even more. So the government would have likely ended up paying out hundreds of billions of dollars whether they did it by PPP loans or not.

Those PPP loans gave a lot of businesses the economic cushion and confidence they needed to keep their doors open, keep people working, and keep the products and services they provided to the populace flowing. The vast majority of businesses in this country are small, closely held businesses. And they in turn employ a vast majority of the workers as well. Don't forget, PPP loans weren't available to the huge public companies with thousands and thousands of employees. They were specifically geared towards those smaller, closely held companies. And owners of such smaller, closely held companies were much more likely to simply shut down their businesses entirely rather than try to keep them going and maybe run up their business losses and debt (or personal losses and debt as well), to the point they'd go under anyway. This would just permanently displace even more workers into the ranks of the unemployed, and remove even more goods and services such now closed companies would have otherwise been providing to the marketplace.

Those PPP loans gave many, many business owners that cushion and safety net they needed to keep things going. And that was vital to help keep the economy going.

And those extra dollars weren't all spent on Porsches and baseball cards. I would imagine a majority of such excess dollars going to pay down business debts, hiring additional workers, funding expansion and/improvements, covering costs related to more remote working and accessibility, and on and on. And some of it was probably put aside as well as savings for a rainy day, since we still haven't seen the end of the pandemic yet. Was how things done possibly inefficient, hell yeah! What would you expect when everyone was running around like chickens with their heads cut off as the pandemic was raging? But when is our government ever really efficient? It's a "bureaucracy", which I've always thought of as a synonym for "wasteful". LOL Again, at least our government did something that likely needed to be done.

[SAllen2556]

Originally Posted by BobC

Peter, I don't disagree with you at all, but when does the government ever seem to get anything completely right? LOL I was in the middle of all this crap with multiple clients, and nobody really knew what was going on from day to day. The government kept trying to adapt and keep up with ever increasing demands and issues from the pandemic's effect on the country overall, and was doing the best they could on the fly. And thank God they did something. Business owners I and colleagues dealt with didn't know what was going to happen, and many were running scared. With the imposed lock downs and quarantines, a lot may have just decided to close the doors and send people home. Which would have vastly increased the number of people getting on unemployment. That's one thing many people never even thought about, without the PPP loans keeping people working, the unemployment costs would have skyrocketed even more. So the government would have likely ended up paying out hundreds of billions of dollars whether they did it by PPP loans or not.

Those PPP loans gave a lot of businesses the economic cushion and confidence they needed to keep their doors open, keep people working, and keep the products and services they provided to the populace flowing. The vast majority of businesses in this country are small, closely held businesses. And they in turn employ a vast majority of the workers as well. Don't forget, PPP loans weren't available to the huge public companies with thousands and thousands of employees. They were specifically geared towards those smaller, closely held companies. And owners of such smaller, closely held companies were much more likely to simply shut down their businesses entirely rather than try to keep them going and maybe run up their business losses and debt (or personal losses and debt as well), to the point they'd go under anyway. This would just permanently displace even more workers into the ranks of the unemployed, and remove even more goods and services such now closed companies would have otherwise been providing to the marketplace.

Those PPP loans gave many, many business owners that cushion and safety net they needed to keep things going. And that was vital to help keep the economy going.

And those extra dollars weren't all spent on Porsches and baseball cards. I would imagine a majority of such excess dollars going to pay down business debts, hiring additional workers, funding expansion and/improvements, covering costs related to more remote working and accessibility, and on and on. And some of it was probably put aside as well as savings for a rainy day, since we still haven't seen the end of the pandemic yet. Was how things done possibly inefficient, hell yeah! What would you expect when everyone was running around like chickens with their heads cut off as the pandemic was raging? But when is our government ever really efficient? It's a "bureaucracy", which I've always thought of as a synonym for "wasteful". LOL Again, at least our government did something that likely needed to be done.

The problem is that the loans and stimulus were not financed by borrowing it was financed by increasing the quantity of money, and as a result we all have to pay for it now through inflation and higher interest rates. And inflation and higher interest rates hurt poor people first and more severely than wealthy people.

Even further, that higher income that your or your company is currently earning now gets taxed at a higher rate.

If the government actually does increase interest rates and lower the money supply what will surely follow is higher unemployment. It’s just a a matter of time.

You can’t spend your way out of a recession - or a pandemic. I thought everyone knew that from the 1970’s.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by SAllen2556

The problem is that the loans and stimulus were not financed by borrowing it was financed by increasing the quantity of money, and as a result we all have to pay for it now through inflation and higher interest rates. And inflation and higher interest rates hurt poor people first and more severely than wealthy people.

Even further, that higher income that your or your company is currently earning now gets taxed at a higher rate.

If the government actually does increase interest rates and lower the money supply what will surely follow is higher unemployment. It’s just a a matter of time.

You can’t spend your way out of a recession - or a pandemic. I thought everyone knew that from the 1970’s.

Scott,

See what Adam says in post #75, he's got some great comments and points that are right on the money. Also, I understand your concern about the government pumping more money into the system, but that itself isn't necessarily going to cause runaway inflation. Look back at what happened after 2008 when our economy tanked due to the mortgage crisis. One of the main things they did was to push more money into the system, remember they called it quantitative easing? It took a few years to get things back on track, but it never really pushed us into an inflationary period.

As Adam also mentioned, this current inflationary situation seems by to be fueled mostly by the supply side issues we've had. It will likely take some time before things hopefully start settling down from the effects of the pandemic, and the supply chains and returning workforces will eventually catch up to the current excess demand that exists, and also allow for reserves and backup inventory all throughout the production and building industries to return to their more normal, pre-pandemic levels. In the meantime, we've got the classic supply and demand formula working against us.

Look at cars and housing for example. Their production and building were crushed because of the pandemic, and so to were their suppliers unable to continue providing parts and materials to them at pre-pandemic levels. But fortunately, everyone involved in those industries had reserves and backup inventory to keep providing what the market needed and demanded. But they blew through the backlogs and reserve inventories they had, till the demand finally exceeded what could be provided. And then, the lack of sufficient numbers of new cars and homes carried over to the secondary used car and rental markets, which also got quickly overwhelmed. And that's why we've seen new and used cars prices go through the roof, along with housing values and rents. But since it took a while to reach that point where our demand so overwhelmed the supply (and started pushing up all the prices), I think a lot of people have mistakenly thought it was all this government stimulus spending that inflated the prices instead, because it seems to fit the timeline for these rising costs perfectly.

To tie this all into our beloved hobby, this is exactly what's happened with PSA. Demand jumped, overwhelmed processing, services got shut down to work on the backlogs and get caught up, while also trying to find and train additional graders to get the work done. In the meantime, grading fees skyrocket so PSA can stop the overwhelming influx of work, yet allow them enough income to get the backlog under control, pay to find and train these new graders so desperately needed, and also pay and finance whatever other expansions or improvements PSA needs to facilitate everyone and remain in business till they can get operations, and fees and services, back to be more like they once were. Even PSA knows they can't simply leave things as they recently were, without eventually damaging the core business,potentially beyond repair.

And this highlights another reason the government would possibly want to make it look like they were overpaying businesses with these forgiven PPP loans. So these businesses would have additional funds to address problems along the lines of what PSA faced, and maybe not have to result to shutting operations and services down, and then severely jacking prices up and making the inflationary effect even worse, instead of better. So this demonstrates at least one way these excess PPP loan monies that everyone's complaining about being handed out and becoming the cause of our current inflationary issues, may actually be working to prevent inflation in many of these businesses.

Now before you go calling me out and questioning my logic about how if PPP loans may be able to stop a business doing what PSA had to do, why didn't the PPP loan monies help PSA? I don't know enough about their finances and internal operations to be able to give anyone a definitive answer, but if I'm speculating........

First off, PSA's surge in demand for them could have just been so unexpectedly fast and huge that they were one of the rare outliers where almost no amount of extra stimulus loan money could have saved them from what they've had to go through. Secondly, don't forget when the pandemic started PSA was part of a larger publicly traded company, and therefore may not have even been eligible for a PPP loan to begin with. And lastly, even if they were eligible and got a PPP loan, they got sold right at the beginning of 2021, not long after they would have the PPP loan forgiven, but just before everything blew up for them. I know none of the financial details of the sale, but it is possible that cash from the PPP loan went out to the prior owners as part of the sale, or was otherwise tied up in the sale or the business to where it couldn't be used to help the business under the new ownership.

Not sure what you mean by businesses getting taxed at higher rates, none of these forgiven PPP loans are taxable.

[Exhibitman]

That last point is correct--it made a really weird line item entry on my 2020 corporate return.

As for budget busting, the 2017 tax cut (made in the face of a deficit; funny how the so-called deficit hawks seem to go deaf, blind and dumb when they like the president who jacks up the deficit) skewed benefits to the richest population. If you're going to bitch out working people getting relief money during the pandemic at least be intellectually honest about all of the handouts to the richest 10% of the population over the preceding 50 years that increased asset and income inequality to levels not seen in 130 years. That section 199 deduction in 2017 was so dramatic in its impact on pass-through entities that the first year it was implemented I thought the CPA must have made an error calculating my taxes. I researched the law and found that the return was accurate, the law is just bizarre.

Oh, and back to the OP, not only is it an inflation hedge, look at the artwork:




Tis a thing of beauty.

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Again I am no socialist, but handing massive sums of money out to the wealthy and encouraging them to spend it on luxury goods doesn't seem like the most efficient way for a government to stimulate the economy in a way that benefits the people who are most in need. Small businesses teetering on the brink, trying to keep their people working, a different matter. Anyhow Ryan, shame on you for not taking the money, you didn't do your part.

My clear recollection from when I was working on my MBA was an economics professor saying just this. If you want to use government spending to stimulate an economy, you create more velocity of money by giving it to those most likely to spend it: the working and middle classes. The renters and not the rentiers, if you will.

EDIT: To be clear, the PPP program did work towards this end by helping businesses maintain payroll. But, anytime you filter money through intermediaries, there is going to be shrinkage and opportunities for fraud.

[Exhibitman]

The 1970s are not an appropriate analog for the present. The nature of the inflation is entirely different. Then, it was pressure caused by manipulated fuel prices (OPEC) that affected every sector of the economy and a hugely expensive war combined with expanded social programs. Today, it is transitory gaps in the global supply chain due to the pandemic combined with early retirements (a recent study found that 90% of the workers who quit and haven't come back are over 55 and retired early, and that of the retirees, only a third as many as normal came back, primarily due to workplace health concerns).

As for the PPP, Bob C has it right: it was intended to jack money into peoples' pockets immediately. If you spent it on payroll and some other door-opening expenses (like rent up to 25%), the loan was forgiven. If not, it was 1% interest repayable starting after a year.

I also would add that the ethics/morals arguments are meritless at their core because everyone can and does have a different interpretation of the concepts, which renders them amorphous and meaningless for argument. I think healthy people who refuse to get vaccinated are morally responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths and billions in wasted hospital care. Someone else certainly disagrees. I don't believe in these sorts of squishy non-standards because we are a nation of laws. There is lawful and there is unlawful behavior, period. If someone behaves lawfully and you don't like it, change the law. Hate the game not the player.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The 1970s are not an appropriate analog for the present. The nature of the inflation is entirely different. Then, it was pressure caused by manipulated fuel prices (OPEC) that affected every sector of the economy and a hugely expensive war combined with expanded social programs. Today, it is transitory gaps in the global supply chain due to the pandemic combined with early retirements (a recent study found that 90% of the workers who quit and haven't come back are over 55 and retired early, and that of the retirees, only a third as many as normal came back, primarily due to workplace health concerns).

As for the PPP, Bob C has it right: it was intended to jack money into peoples' pockets immediately. If you spent it on payroll and some other door-opening expenses (like rent up to 25%), the loan was forgiven. If not, it was 1% interest repayable starting after a year.

.

I also would add that the ethics/morals arguments are meritless at their core because everyone can and does have a different interpretation of the concepts, which renders them amorphous and meaningless for argument. I think healthy people who refuse to get vaccinated are morally responsible for thousands of unnecessary deaths and billions in wasted hospital care. Someone else certainly disagrees. I don't believe in these sorts of squishy non-standards because we are a nation of laws. There is lawful and there is unlawful behavior, period. If someone behaves lawfully and you don't like it, change the law. Hate the game not the player.

That sounds great Adam. But in reality I would bet almost no one pays back those loans. I know my friend isn't going to and I am sure there are 10s of thousands more. No matter what anyone says the government has totally screwed the pooch on the great cash giveaway. Inflation....not going anywhere soon. The very people at the lower end of the totem pole will have a little more money but it won't matter as inflation has increased faster. These are just facts. Anyone can debate them.. It's a shame our country is making it where you don't have to work to get a handout. NO income? No problem...you get free money too. Illegal? No problem, how many babies to you have so we can know how much free money you get. A bunch of total BS if you ask me.



,

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Leon

That sounds great Adam. But in reality I would bet almost no one pays back those loans. I know my friend isn't going to and I am sure there are 10s of thousands more. No matter what anyone says the government has totally screwed the pooch on the great cash giveaway. Inflation....not going anywhere soon. The very people at the lower end of the totem pole will have a little more money but it won't matter as inflation has increased faster. These are just facts. Anyone can debate them.. It's a shame our country is making it where you don't have to work to get a handout. NO income? No problem...you get free money too. Illegal? No problem, how many babies to you have so we can know how much free money you get. A bunch of total BS if you ask me.



,

I get the loan, I spend it on payroll, I then take the money I WOULD HAVE spent on payroll and buy a Porsche. The money is fungible.

[Yoda]

I think the point made about the massive number of folks who would be applying for unemployment if no PPP was unavailable is most valid. The states would then become involved, seeking federal aid; it would be a mess.
I do wonder how many of those who received the loans returned the money to the government. There must be stats for that kind of thing.

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The 1970s are not an appropriate analog for the present. The nature of the inflation is entirely different. Then, it was pressure caused by manipulated fuel prices (OPEC) that affected every sector of the economy and a hugely expensive war combined with expanded social programs. Today, it is transitory gaps in the global supply chain due to the pandemic combined with early retirements (a recent study found that 90% of the workers who quit and haven't come back are over 55 and retired early, and that of the retirees, only a third as many as normal came back, primarily due to workplace health concerns).

I'm a supply chain manager and it is fairly well known in the field that this problem is particularly acute in the trucking industry, which wasn't really keeping up with retirements prior to the pandemic. I have heard anecdotally that the same thing is happening with longshoremen, which is contributing to backups at major ports like Long Beach and cascading effects back through the maritime cargo industry which was already strained.

PS Yes, I know I am getting way off topic, but my wife really doesn't care to listen to me talk about this stuff and sometimes you just need to get it out of your system. Blame her, not me.

PPS. Since every thread needs a card.