Does The Stock Market Influence Your Vintage Purchases?

[Yoda]

Well, the art market remains strong despite the recent pullback of stocks. Yesterday, Andy Warhol's painting of Marilyn Monroe fetched nearly $200 million at auction.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Well, the art market remains strong despite the recent pullback of stocks. Yesterday, Andy Warhol's painting of Marilyn Monroe fetched nearly $200 million at auction.

Interesting you brought this up. While it did set a record, some estimates had it going for $400 million.

[Johnny630]

When interest rates go up many of the ultra wealthy hide out in treasuries...way less risk. When interest rates are low big money hedges in collectables.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Well, the art market remains strong despite the recent pullback of stocks. Yesterday, Andy Warhol's painting of Marilyn Monroe fetched nearly $200 million at auction.

I have no idea how the broad art market is doing, but don't find these types of "best of the best" items very representative. Same for cards - almost the whole basketball card market is down off ATH's substantially, as in cards that were selling for 20K, now selling for 4K .But if a rare / desirable ultra high end card came up it would smash records. There really are two hobbies, at least when it comes to cards.

[G1911]

The way I see it, if the tumbling of my stock portfolio (and boy is it tumbling...) changes my financial situation to where I need to pull back on my discretionary expenses, then I have spent too much on toys and been grossly irresponsible. X money goes to savings and necessary stable expenses, Y money goes to investment, Z money is set aside for me to waste on cardboard pictures of men. The momentary up/down doesn't affect card budget because my investments are for the long term mostly and I don't take so much out of savings that ups and downs affect my ability to pay the bills.

It might change what cards specifically I buy, as prices shift, but they shift up and down constantly and this is always broadly true.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by japhi

I have no idea how the broad art market is doing, but don't find these types of "best of the best" items very representative. Same for cards - almost the whole basketball card market is down off ATH's substantially, as in cards that were selling for 20K, now selling for 4K .But if a rare / desirable ultra high end card came up it would smash records. There really are two hobbies, at least when it comes to cards.

Pre '86 hoops is not down 80% from the highs. And as I've mentioned before, '86 to '88 Fleer and modern basketball were the cards that had some of the most insane pandemic gains beforehand. So it's standard market action for those to have the biggest % drops once that mania subsides.

The comment earlier about so many more buyers becoming sellers lately doesn't make sense to me either. Prices for quality vintage have mostly held steady for a year now (obviously at levels that are still substantially higher than pre-pandemic times), and the BIN supply on ebay for vintage in general still only contains mostly overpriced items, and no more than were available when the recent boom was in full swing.

I'm not saying everything is currently amazing in the card world or assuming that things will stay this healthy. But some of you guys really have the most negative spin possible, especially for a marketplace that still looks strong so far (and has done incredible in just a two year stretch)

[Exhibitman]

Good points, John. The 'market' really isn't monolithic. I think the slash and burn FOMO days are ending. Even then, different items will react differently. I have no qualms about Babe Ruth cards. Shohei Ohtani not so much.

Greg, I hear that! I've been on a kill-eat basis ever since my daughter announced a intention to go to medical school. That's why I run an active card business: gotta raise cash for my collecting completely outside the mainstream of my earnings.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Pre '86 hoops is not down 80% from the highs. And as I've mentioned before, '86 to '88 Fleer and modern basketball were the cards that had some of the most insane pandemic gains beforehand. So it's standard market action for those to have the biggest % drops once that mania subsides.

The comment earlier about so many more buyers becoming sellers lately doesn't make sense to me either. Prices for quality vintage have mostly held steady for a year now (obviously at levels that are still substantially higher than pre-pandemic times), and the BIN supply on ebay for vintage in general still only contains mostly overpriced items, and no more than were available when the recent boom was in full swing.

I'm not saying everything is currently amazing in the card world or assuming that things will stay this healthy. But some of you guys really have the most negative spin possible, especially for a marketplace that still looks strong so far (and has done incredible in just a two year stretch)

"There really are two hobbies, when it comes to cards."

Amen!

[Leon]

I don't have a ton of stock but have some. And when the stock market is sucking this bad, as it has in the last week, I just don't feel like spending as much money on cards. (unless it's one I really need!)
.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Leon

I don't have a ton of stock but have some. And when the stock market is sucking this bad, as it has in the last week, I just don't feel like spending as much money on cards.
(unless it's one I really need!)
.

Spoken like a true collector.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Leon

I don't have a ton of stock but have some. And when the stock market is sucking this bad, as it has in the last week, I just don't feel like spending as much money on cards. (unless it's one I really need!)
.

Yup, same here. When times are good, FOMO kicks in. When sentiment changes, demand evaporates quicker then it came on. I always use the example of the 90s, when we had Dads fighting over cases of Upper Deck french hockey at 300 a box. 12 months later you couldn't give these away and they likely never reach the price they hit in 1990. Obviously vintage is a completely different beast, but when demand leaves a market, look out, prices on highly available, widely traded stuff can go to near zero.

[parkplace33]

The concerning thing in the hobby I am seeing is this phrase:

"Refocusing/Retooling/Adjusting my collection"

I have seen that phrase used in 2022 more than any time in recent memory.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by japhi

Yup, same here. When times are good, FOMO kicks in. When sentiment changes, demand evaporates quicker then it came on. I always use the example of the 90s, when we had Dads fighting over cases of Upper Deck french hockey at 300 a box. 12 months later you couldn't give these away and they likely never reach the price they hit in 1990. Obviously vintage is a completely different beast, but when demand leaves a market, look out, prices on highly available, widely traded stuff can go to near zero.

Agree…Cash at this years National On Saturday and Sunday May Hold a lot more buying power than the past two years, across the board. It’s my only chance on big cards I’m hunting….I can’t beat a guy who’s willing to go to the moon in REA Or Heritage but I may have a shot at the show with Cold Hard Cash due to the fear settling in….idk I could be wrong but at least it gives me some hope.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Pre '86 hoops is not down 80% from the highs. And as I've mentioned before, '86 to '88 Fleer and modern basketball were the cards that had some of the most insane pandemic gains beforehand. So it's standard market action for those to have the biggest % drops once that mania subsides.

The comment earlier about so many more buyers becoming sellers lately doesn't make sense to me either. Prices for quality vintage have mostly held steady for a year now (obviously at levels that are still substantially higher than pre-pandemic times), and the BIN supply on ebay for vintage in general still only contains mostly overpriced items, and no more than were available when the recent boom was in full swing.

I'm not saying everything is currently amazing in the card world or assuming that things will stay this healthy. But some of you guys really have the most negative spin possible, especially for a marketplace that still looks strong so far (and has done incredible in just a two year stretch)

Sorry but the overall marketplace is not strong, the cards that trade the most are trending down. Lots of examples pre 86, and almost every modern BBK is way down save for the super rare stuff.

Case in point, Dr. J PSA9 RC peak 57k, last two sold under 20K. I follow hockey. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman RC's all way off highs. Lemieux RC is a key card, top 10-20 in the hobby and is more then 50% off highs.

Broadly the market is getting crumpled, even if some segments and highly desirable cards are trading well. And IMO we have only started, based on the fact most don't seem to understand what is going on.....broadly.

And FWIW, I'm not a card investor so I'm neutral on this stuff. If anything I see this as highly positive, I don't want my hobby to be a speculators paradise. But it feels like 1990 to me, things will likely get much worse (or better depending on your perspective) from here on as trillions evaporates from financial markets.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by japhi

Sorry but the overall marketplace is not strong, the cards that trade the most are trending down. Lots of examples pre 86, and almost every modern BBK is way down save for the super rare stuff.

Case in point, Dr. J PSA9 RC peak 57k, last two sold under 20K. I follow hockey. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman RC's all way off highs. Lemieux RC is a key card, top 10-20 in the hobby and is more then 50% off highs.

Broadly the market is getting crumpled, even if some segments and highly desirable cards are trading well. And IMO we have only started, based on the fact most don't seem to understand what is going on.....broadly.

And FWIW, I'm not a card investor so I'm neutral on this stuff. If anything I see this as highly positive, I don't want my hobby to be a speculators paradise. But it feels like 1990 to me, things will likely get much worse (or better depending on your perspective) from here on as trillions evaporates from financial markets.

Another one is getting it +1

Only thing I will say is you can't use major auction houses as a gauge on the current state of collector grade cards in this market. That's all AH's are White Collar Buyers
EBAY BST IN PERSON SHOWS are mostly Blue Collar Collectors. Just my two cents

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by japhi

Sorry but the overall marketplace is not strong, the cards that trade the most are trending down. Lots of examples pre 86, and almost every modern BBK is way down save for the super rare stuff.

Case in point, Dr. J PSA9 RC peak 57k, last two sold under 20K. I follow hockey. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman RC's all way off highs. Lemieux RC is a key card, top 10-20 in the hobby and is more then 50% off highs.

Broadly the market is getting crumpled, even if some segments and highly desirable cards are trading well. And IMO we have only started, based on the fact most don't seem to understand what is going on.....broadly.

And FWIW, I'm not a card investor so I'm neutral on this stuff. If anything I see this as highly positive, I don't want my hobby to be a speculators paradise. But it feels like 1990 to me, things will likely get much worse (or better depending on your perspective) from here on as trillions evaporates from financial markets.

Yes a lot of key cards are 40-60% off their highs. My point was that 80% is quite an exaggeration for most. And comparing current levels to the top of a mania's very short-lived bubble prices is always going to make "down x% from the high" look awful, despite how it's the norm for what happens during and after any huge boom.

Like I mentioned before, except for late '80s hoops, the card market has stabilized pretty well for the last year (at price levels that average around 150-200% above where they were before the pandemic).

That is not "crumpled", and yes it is strong market action overall since the pandemic began.

The Lemieux rookie that you brought up (as an example of things supposedly falling apart in general) is actually a good snapshot of what's right in the marketplace. The OPC in PSA 7 was 200 before the pandemic, 1500 for a very short time during the early '21 peak, and has stayed at 700 for the past year. If you see that performance as a problem, then you're not being realistic about how well any market can usually do in the long run.

And again, I am not saying that everything will be fine from here. Things could collapse in the world of cards, Wall Street, or elsewhere (obviously a lot of economic risks out there at the moment). TBH, the current housing market reminds me of the irrational highs from around 2005. But it hasn't happened yet. And if someone can so easily prognosticate about that going forward, then more power to them!

[Leon]

So at what point does our hobby market correct, if it does? Maybe another 20% drop in the stock market? I have seen my savings go down a good bit lately.... fortunately I have very little, relative to other resources, in the market.
.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Leon

So at what point does our hobby market correct, if it does? Maybe another 20% drop in the stock market? I have seen my savings go down a good bit lately.... fortunately I have very little, relative to other resources, in the market.
.

Leon my take is this is we have two different markets in the vintage card industry

1. White Collar Big Ticket Items in REA, Memory Lane, Heritage ect. My belief is the bigger items in those auctions are controlled by white collar investors. Many of the cards I’ve noticed over the past two and a half years have played musical chairs from one house to the next in a relatively quick time frame 2-4 months.
To me these investors are less affected by inflation and a stock market downturn.

2. Blue Collar Middle and Lower Grade Private Collectors at In Person BST or direct eBay sales have corrected and will only go lower especially on the lower grade pieces. It’s my belief that the high inflation affecting the normal blue collar middle class guy is hindering their buying.

The Rick Get Richer, The Poor Get Poorer, And the Middle Class Pays May More and Buys Less and Less Discretionary items…

[bbcard1]

Originally Posted by japhi

I have no idea how the broad art market is doing, but don't find these types of "best of the best" items very representative. Same for cards - almost the whole basketball card market is down off ATH's substantially, as in cards that were selling for 20K, now selling for 4K .But if a rare / desirable ultra high end card came up it would smash records. There really are two hobbies, at least when it comes to cards.

There is a fascinating two part podcast series on the art market from Freakanomics. I highly recommend giving it a listen.

[Lorewalker]

I do not have much in the market but when Wall St starts to correct I change my card spending habits because I know most people will get nervous and change their habits. In the bigger picture with gas remaining high, interest rates going up and inflation staring us in the face, I think we will see prices drop (continue to drop) on the cards which are bought by the average collector. At the very least demand will suffer. The cost of living is way up and cards do not feed you when you are hungry. The extremely wealthy collector/investor might pull back a bit but I could still see record prices being paid for elite type material.

On the other hand let's look to March of 2020. DJIA went from almost 30K to roughly 19K and did not recover until Dec 2020. During that time we were all locked down being told Covid would kill us all and card values went up. Further the hobby got the attention of lots of new people who jumped in with both feet. Yes the feds were tossing money at people and many found themselves unable to travel, entertain, etc but I am not sure how much of that influenced prices or to what degree it was a factor.

[jsfriedm]

Then again, clearly some not particularly rare or especially high-graded cards can still go for inexplicably high prices at auction: https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=106007

[G1911]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Then again, clearly some not particularly rare or especially high-graded cards can still go for inexplicably high prices at auction: https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=106007

Is that paper loss or paper adhesion below "collector" on the back? You can see the red on the front too, on the border at that spot.