National should be really interesting

[bounce]

This type of thread surfaces every year. I've got news for everyone as it relates to nice looking vintage, and it's not really news - the majority of it is owned by people who don't have to sell it.

Let me say that again - the majority of nice looking vintage is owned by people who don't have to sell it. The true "diamond hands" in this hobby tend to own this stuff, and it is the absolute last thing they would ever sell unless they got their price. I don't discount this stuff at shows (because there's also so few other dealers who have much of it).

Any of us who are waiting on the "crash" in the prices of these cards is going to continue to be waiting...and waiting and waiting and waiting. Year after year we keep hoping and praying for these cards to decline, and year after year they get a little more expensive. It's frustrating for sure, but it's reality. If you're approaching this National thinking this stuff should be or could be "on sale", and that those dealers are going to be desperate for cash, you're going to be worse than disappointed.

Also, some of these "modern" kids have started dabbling in vintage, as many are hitting that timeline in their collecting journey when they've discovered that there are some very interesting and historic players that are worthy of collecting. That's keeping the demand side quite high, and as modern continues to have issues I suspect there will continue to be some transfer of funds toward vintage. It just makes sense.

So what to do? Make shorter lists of cards you really want, and be prepared to pay going rate to get them. Be patient, search out the card that really is the one for you and be ready to grab it, if it makes sense and you can afford it. If not, pick something else - there's always something else to collect.

Carry on.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by bounce

This type of thread surfaces every year. I've got news for everyone as it relates to nice looking vintage, and it's not really news - the majority of it is owned by people who don't have to sell it.

Let me say that again - the majority of nice looking vintage is owned by people who don't have to sell it. The true "diamond hands" in this hobby tend to own this stuff, and it is the absolute last thing they would ever sell unless they got their price. I don't discount this stuff at shows (because there's also so few other dealers who have much of it).

Any of us who are waiting on the "crash" in the prices of these cards is going to continue to be waiting...and waiting and waiting and waiting. Year after year we keep hoping and praying for these cards to decline, and year after year they get a little more expensive. It's frustrating for sure, but it's reality. If you're approaching this National thinking this stuff should be or could be "on sale", and that those dealers are going to be desperate for cash, you're going to be worse than disappointed.

Also, some of these "modern" kids have started dabbling in vintage, as many are hitting that timeline in their collecting journey when they've discovered that there are some very interesting and historic players that are worthy of collecting. That's keeping the demand side quite high, and as modern continues to have issues I suspect there will continue to be some transfer of funds toward vintage. It just makes sense.

So what to do? Make shorter lists of cards you really want, and be prepared to pay going rate to get them. Be patient, search out the card that really is the one for you and be ready to grab it, if it makes sense and you can afford it. If not, pick something else - there's always something else to collect.

Carry on.

I'm glad you said this, you're telling it like it is, bottom line.

Great Comments

[maj78]

Originally Posted by bounce

This type of thread surfaces every year. I've got news for everyone as it relates to nice looking vintage, and it's not really news - the majority of it is owned by people who don't have to sell it.

Let me say that again - the majority of nice looking vintage is owned by people who don't have to sell it. The true "diamond hands" in this hobby tend to own this stuff, and it is the absolute last thing they would ever sell unless they got their price. I don't discount this stuff at shows (because there's also so few other dealers who have much of it).

Any of us who are waiting on the "crash" in the prices of these cards is going to continue to be waiting...and waiting and waiting and waiting. Year after year we keep hoping and praying for these cards to decline, and year after year they get a little more expensive. It's frustrating for sure, but it's reality. If you're approaching this National thinking this stuff should be or could be "on sale", and that those dealers are going to be desperate for cash, you're going to be worse than disappointed.

Also, some of these "modern" kids have started dabbling in vintage, as many are hitting that timeline in their collecting journey when they've discovered that there are some very interesting and historic players that are worthy of collecting. That's keeping the demand side quite high, and as modern continues to have issues I suspect there will continue to be some transfer of funds toward vintage. It just makes sense.

So what to do? Make shorter lists of cards you really want, and be prepared to pay going rate to get them. Be patient, search out the card that really is the one for you and be ready to grab it, if it makes sense and you can afford it. If not, pick something else - there's always something else to collect.

Carry on.

Great comments as the above poster said. I'm in my mid 40s and collect mostly vintage but have a younger son so I dabble in modern from time to time. I can 100% confirm your comments regarding "modern" kids beginning to look towards vintage. Lately I have been asked about a few vintage cards I have for sale by kids that I know for a fact are in their early 20s. That has never happened in the past. It remains to be seen if these younger people will stick around for vintage collecting but, for the time being, this could be a big reason why vintage doesn't suffer some of the price drops with seen with modern.

[Steve_NY]

About a year ago, I visited a local show and there was only one dealer selling vintage but I recently visited the same show and there were now six booths which were completely selling vintage and probably another 6 to 8 booths selling some vintage cards. I believe the return to vintage is getting much stronger daily. But I only sell vintage and have never had a slow down ever but I only set up once a year at the National.

This year's National should be mobbed and if you are really looking for really rare items, you should visit the show sometime between Weds. and Friday. By Saturday the rarest of the rare will be long gone unless they are over-priced. In fact, I have been doing this for almost 50 years, and I will NOT run out of rare items to showcase. So I guess someone will infer that i am over-priced. But this is my once-a -year chance to sell my collectibles. Many buyers take pictures of my display and post them on Facebook, etc. and refer to my display as a "museum" so I work hard to keep everyone happy.

I will be bringing hundreds of T206's and for the first time in ten+ years, my T205 set is again for sale. But it is raw ungraded as are most of my display items. But as I sell items I will replace them in my 10 showcases with more rare items. I can do that all week. Believe me.

So you can listen to those who try to convince you to pass this year in AC, and wait for Chicago, or you can come this year (and next) and expect to find an outstanding display of sports collectibles and more this year.

Steve_NY

[Snapolit1]

Yes, in the coming weeks we will deal with no shortage of messages about how no one in their right mind would go to a National in Atlantic City . . . and if it doesn't break records for attendance I will be floored.

If anyone planning to attend from outside the area has any questions on logistics, etc., feel free to DM me. I know AC very well and am down there 6-7 times a year.

Originally Posted by Steve_NY

About a year ago, I visited a local show and there was only one dealer selling vintage but I recently visited the same show and there were now six booths which were completely selling vintage and probably another 6 to 8 booths selling some vintage cards. I believe the return to vintage is getting much stronger daily. But I only sell vintage and have never had a slow down ever but I only set up once a year at the National.

This year's National should be mobbed and if you are really looking for really rare items, you should visit the show sometime between Weds. and Friday. By Saturday the rarest of the rare will be long gone unless they are over-priced. In fact, I have been doing this for almost 50 years, and I will NOT run out of rare items to showcase. So I guess someone will infer that i am over-priced. But this is my once-a -year chance to sell my collectibles. Many buyers take pictures of my display and post them on Facebook, etc. and refer to my display as a "museum" so I work hard to keep everyone happy.

I will be bringing hundreds of T206's and for the first time in ten+ years, my T205 set is again for sale. But it is raw ungraded as are most of my display items. But as I sell items I will replace them in my 10 showcases with more rare items. I can do that all week. Believe me.

So you can listen to those who try to convince you to pass this year in AC, and wait for Chicago, or you can come this year (and next) and expect to find an outstanding display of sports collectibles and more this year.

Steve_NY

[Exhibitman]

I hope, for the sake of anyone attending, that it doesn't break records. I was at the (in)famous 1991 Anaheim show and it was ridiculous. The fire marshals had to limit entry and even so, many of the aisles were impassable. It took me four hours to get inside the first day and I would not have gone back for a second except that I arranged a trade with a dealer and part of the deal was he gets me inside on a dealer pass first thing in the morning.

What you want is a nice, solid and steady attendance that doesn't overwhelm the facility.

[Fballguy]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Yes, in the coming weeks we will deal with no shortage of messages about how no one in their right mind would go to a National in Atlantic City . . . and if it doesn't break records for attendance I will be floored.

If anyone planning to attend from outside the area has any questions on logistics, etc., feel free to DM me. I know AC very well and am down there 6-7 times a year.

I'm staying at the Holiday Inn Express in Absecon which looks like a 15 minute, relatively straight shot to the convention center. I wouldn't mind hearing restaurant recommendations if you have any. I like Breakfast/Lunch/Dinner/Steak/Beer/Burgers/Italian/Chinese/Tapas/Beer/Japanese/Korean/Pizza/Beer/BBQ/Seafood/Beer/Wine and Beer if that helps narrow it down at all.

[Jewish-collector]

Originally Posted by Fballguy

I'm staying at the Holiday Inn Express in Absecon which looks like a 15 minute, relatively straight shot to the convention center. I wouldn't mind hearing restaurant recommendations if you have any. I like Breakfast/Lunch/Dinner/Steak/Beer/Burgers/Italian/Chinese/Tapas/Beer/Japanese/Korean/Pizza/Beer/BBQ/Seafood/Beer/Wine and Beer if that helps narrow it down at all.

What about McDonalds ?

[Fballguy]

Originally Posted by Jewish-collector

What about McDonalds ?

My go to for a quick breakfast. 2 Egg McMuffins and a large coffee should power be through at least 4 hours of National searching. Do they have food available at the convention center if you need a little re-charge?

Looking for something a little heartier at night.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by bounce

This type of thread surfaces every year. I've got news for everyone as it relates to nice looking vintage, and it's not really news - the majority of it is owned by people who don't have to sell it.

Let me say that again - the majority of nice looking vintage is owned by people who don't have to sell it. The true "diamond hands" in this hobby tend to own this stuff, and it is the absolute last thing they would ever sell unless they got their price. I don't discount this stuff at shows (because there's also so few other dealers who have much of it).

Any of us who are waiting on the "crash" in the prices of these cards is going to continue to be waiting...and waiting and waiting and waiting. Year after year we keep hoping and praying for these cards to decline, and year after year they get a little more expensive. It's frustrating for sure, but it's reality. If you're approaching this National thinking this stuff should be or could be "on sale", and that those dealers are going to be desperate for cash, you're going to be worse than disappointed.

Also, some of these "modern" kids have started dabbling in vintage, as many are hitting that timeline in their collecting journey when they've discovered that there are some very interesting and historic players that are worthy of collecting. That's keeping the demand side quite high, and as modern continues to have issues I suspect there will continue to be some transfer of funds toward vintage. It just makes sense.

So what to do? Make shorter lists of cards you really want, and be prepared to pay going rate to get them. Be patient, search out the card that really is the one for you and be ready to grab it, if it makes sense and you can afford it. If not, pick something else - there's always something else to collect.

Carry on.

I am not sure what cards or issues you are referring to when you write nice looking vintage--that is pretty vague but I think we are all seeing nice looking as well as not so nice looking vintage as coming down in price. Whether or not any dealer who is in possession of this type of stuff needs to sell or not, if they want to sell, they might not get their price unless their price reflects the adjustment we are seeing pretty much across the board.

Everyone who attends a National (as a buyer or as a seller) is anticipating and intending to do business. It is a lot of effort to simply go to set up and show off your stuff. That can be done without leaving your home or office.

[Tony Gordon]

Looking forward to the National. I have attended most of the Chicago shows but this will be my first in Atlantic City. I sell online and at local shows and have always found that the National is the easiest place to sell cards, regardless of what is going on with the economy or the hobby. The National is a unique event and is always a good time. If you don't like card shows and crowds, the National is not the place for you. If you love card shows and don't mind crowds, the National is heaven on Earth. I absolutely love it. Though, you guys have me a little worried about the food...

[Johnny630]

I would guess for a regular booth at the National for the week is 1400-1500 bucks plus add on meal lodging for the week and travel. I estimate a easy 3,000k before your sell one card. I don’t know to many dealers who are just going to come for show and not expect to make money…idk anymore lol

[Fballguy]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I would guess for a regular booth at the National for the week is 1400-1500 bucks plus add on meal lodging for the week and travel. I estimate a easy 3,000k before your sell one card. I don’t know to many dealers who are just going to come for show and not expect to make money…idk anymore lol

All of which is written off.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Fballguy

All of which is written off.

"Written Off" does not equal free it just let's you deduct a business expense.

[Fballguy]

Originally Posted by bnorth

"Written Off" does not equal free it just let's you deduct a business expense.

Correct...but it helps.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Fballguy

All of which is written off.

Written off can we please not take this one to taxes, lol to many post seem to go that way, lol. We still love you Bob C However this one, my observations, is strictly about the dealers initial upfront expenses.

All I’m saying is this is an easy 3k off the bat for the dealer, he has to figure this in to his prices and profit margins before one customer walks the floor. That would be my goal to at least make that back day one if I was set up as a dealer at one of these Nationals. Idk

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Tony Gordon

Looking forward to the National. I have attended most of the Chicago shows but this will be my first in Atlantic City. I sell online and at local shows and have always found that the National is the easiest place to sell cards, regardless of what is going on with the economy or the hobby. The National is a unique event and is always a good time. If you don't like card shows and crowds, the National is not the place for you. If you love card shows and don't mind crowds, the National is heaven on Earth. I absolutely love it. Though, you guys have me a little worried about the food...

Directly across from the convention center is a bar called the Tun Tavern. Like a 100 feet across a street if I recall correctly. Good place for a lunch break for a cold pint and some good bar food. Highly recommendation. I wouldn't eat the the convention center. No sir.

https://www.tuntavern.com/

[bounce]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I am not sure what cards or issues you are referring to when you write nice looking vintage--that is pretty vague but I think we are all seeing nice looking as well as not so nice looking vintage as coming down in price. Whether or not any dealer who is in possession of this type of stuff needs to sell or not, if they want to sell, they might not get their price unless their price reflects the adjustment we are seeing pretty much across the board.

Everyone who attends a National (as a buyer or as a seller) is anticipating and intending to do business. It is a lot of effort to simply go to set up and show off your stuff. That can be done without leaving your home or office.

When I say "nice looking vintage" I mean centered - really centered not 60/40 or 70/30 - no obtrusive creases, no stains, cards with strong if not great color and registration. Cards that stop you when you walk by the case.

Please share where you're seeing this stuff come down in price because I'm obviously not looking in the right places. Eye appeal continues to be the driving force on prices across the board.

Any graded T206 Cobb in any pose, PSA 3-4-5 of other T206 HOFers (especially portraits), heck even "authentic" Planks and others continue to go up when auctioned, ANY Cracker Jacks (not just HOFers), Goudey Ruths and Gehrigs. 1950s RCs may have come down some from the peak but the nice ones, like truly centered 1954 Aarons and 1955 Clementes, all pretty difficult to locate and auction prices still reflect very strong interest from PSA 5 to PSA 8. 1952 Mantles - there are no "deals" on these any more (if there ever really were).

I don't know what vintage you see that's slipping, maybe the borderline off center stuff and PSA 4s and less from the 1950s/1960s, but solid stuff gets solid bids and it's harder than ever to find. I know because I collect graded sets from these years, and I'm adding cards much slower than I have in the past and I'm having to pay more than I ever have. That's true at every show I've been to in the past year and it's going to be true in AC.

And not everyone who goes to the National is there strictly for commerce - there are lots of people there for the autographs, some people are there for giveaways, some are there to just experience it.

Here's another tip - if you're just there for the money and the commerce, you're actually going to "miss" the show entirely.

[rjackson44]

cracker jacks insane