1952 Rosen Mantle SGC 9.5 Final Price – Too high, too low, just right?

[hcv123]

I think there are 2 factors to consider in the question.

A) Current market value. As has been previously stated the possibility that a potential buyer of the card did not see it is so miniscule that I think (in this case) it is fair to say all willing buyers were able to place bids and the market (those buyers) set the current fair market value. Regarding the list of comments on other threads:

1. The grading company - This is an interesting one. As PSA has no 9.5 grade it would be difficult to compare apples to apples. I do believe a PSA 10 would sell for more. In general for post war cards PSA cards at comparable grades command stronger prices. I do not think a PSA 9 would have gotten close to 12.6M.

2. The “toning” of the card - a non factor - The card is drop dead incredible!

3. The auction house - a non factor - while there are other houses that it might have done as well at, I do not believe given (as previously stated) the amount of press and visibility this particular card had that the result would have been higher in any other auction house.

4. Current inflation and stock market trends - I suspect that in most cases a person who can afford to invest 12.6 million in a baseball card, is both wealthy and diversified enough that both inflation and the stock market were not a factor.

5. Abundance of high end cards being recently auctioned off - Again a non factor - this is a card on a whole other level. Certainly the most Iconic post war card.


B) The other factor that I haven't seen mentioned yet is the relative value of baseball cards compared to other collectible categories. In that regard, I think the baseball card hobby is just getting warmed up. I see demand continuing to grow, especially so for the higher-end cards most of which are in ridiculously low supply relative to the demand. When I think about art or sculpture for example, 12.6 Million for one of the top 4 examples of one of the most iconic and high demand cards in the hobby just doesn't seem like that much money.

In conclusion - I think the buyers fairly set the current market on the card and I think the hobby has a lot further to grow! As an aside, pre auction I also thought the card had a really good chance of going north of 15M.

[53toppscollector]

It isn't the hot take, but I think honestly the price is always the "right" price, because price is driven by supply and demand. This auction was hyped up, the card was a very rare offering, and it smashed the previous record. This was the price the market demanded right now. With outlier cards like this, it is hard to know what the impact will be across the hobby, or even for a 1952 Mantle in a different grade. Will some casual collectors see the articles about this sale and decide they need to go and get a lower grade copy of the card now, thus bumping the prices up? Maybe, maybe not.

What will be interesting is to see what kinds of cards are offered up via the big auction houses over the next 6 months or so. Will this sale bring other high grade copies of rare cards to market to try and capitalize on this? Maybe, maybe not. I think Ken Kendrick has said he has no interest in selling his Wagner or Mantle, for example.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by hcv123

I do not think a PSA 9 would have gotten close to 12.6M.

Even though the PSA 8 went for almost 3 Million a couple years ago?

[jingram058]

I think 12.6M for ANY baseball card, a piece of cardboard, with all that's going on in the world, makes me mad. That someone has that much disposable pocket change, to plunk down on a baseball card, no matter their "investment" or possible "flip" options or what the f%$# ever, makes me mad. I am not jealous. I find it ridiculous in the extreme and it makes me mad. And with that, I am done...

[Shoeless Moe]

Winner overpaid.

Next one up will go for less.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jingram058

I think 12.6M for ANY baseball card, a piece of cardboard, with all that's going on in the world, makes me mad. That someone has that much disposable pocket change, to plunk down on a baseball card, no matter their "investment" or possible "flip" options or what the f%$# ever, makes me mad. I am not jealous. I find it ridiculous in the extreme and it makes me mad. And with that, I am done...

Is there something they could have bought with that money (assuming a purchase for personal use only) that you would be less offended by?

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Is there something they could have bought with that money (assuming a purchase for personal use only) that you would be less offended by?

I honestly don't know, Peter. I am guessing that if the buyer has 12.6M in pocket change, then he/she/they have an income/estate/portfolio that someone like myself cannot even comprehend. Perhaps they might do something philanthropic (as opposed to something personal) with their pocket change, but it (still, indeed) is a free country. They can do whatever with their money. I am not jealous or envious; I am living nicely with a nice collection of cards and memorabilia. I simply cannot rationalize a 12.6M baseball card purchase. I can't come to grips with the value of any of these baseball cards, much less Mickey Mantle.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jingram058

I honestly don't know, Peter. I am guessing that if the buyer has 12.6M in pocket change, then he/she/they have an income/estate/portfolio that someone like myself cannot even comprehend. Perhaps they might do something philanthropic (as opposed to something personal) with their pocket change, but it (still, indeed) is a free country. They can do whatever with their money. I am not jealous or envious; I am living nicely with a nice collection of cards and memorabilia. I simply cannot rationalize a 12.6M baseball card purchase. I can't come to grips with the value of any of these baseball cards, much less Mickey Mantle.

I understand the reaction, was just curious if you would feel better about it if they bought a villa, or that much Apple stock, or a Picasso, or whatever. Or is the offense really just spending that kind of money on oneself rather than doing something more philanthropic with it.

[53toppscollector]

It is really difficult to zoom out from present day and think about what something might command long into the future.

In 1990, a copy of the Declaration of Independence sold for $1.5M. A year later, a copy sold for $2.4M. Those were original copies (I believe there are only 23 original copies printed at that time)

Last year, a copy that was printed in the early 1800s (one of 200 copies) sold for over $4m in an auction. In 1991, if you told the person who paid $2.4m (which was way above what the previous sale was) that a copy with less rarity, printed 40+ years later, would sell for $4.4m, they'd have probably laughed.

30 years from now, the 9.5 Mantle might sell for $40M. Maybe we wont even be using money 30 years from now, who knows.

25 years ago, I still connected to the internet with a CD that I got in the mail from a company called AOL. At the time it was revolutionary. Now its like a relic of a bygone era. 25 years from now the world is going to look a lot different, and I bet the Rosen Mantle would be valued at $25-30M. Or whatever that equates to in whatever the next version of Bitcoin is.

[Frank A]

Originally Posted by jingram058

I think 12.6M for ANY baseball card, a piece of cardboard, with all that's going on in the world, makes me mad. That someone has that much disposable pocket change, to plunk down on a baseball card, no matter their "investment" or possible "flip" options or what the f%$# ever, makes me mad. I am not jealous. I find it ridiculous in the extreme and it makes me mad. And with that, I am done...

I agree with you 100%. Thousands of people will die this winter because they can't afford gas or heating oil or electricity and will freeze to death and some guy spends millions on a friggin baseball card. I wonder if he gives a shit about them. I will guess he does not. The priorities of things has gone to hell.

[campyfan39]

I'll take the minority view here. I am one of the ole timey "scrooges" who laments the fact that the hobby I love has turned into investment property. The more cards go up the less likely it is true collectors who care about the game and the sets will ever be able to attain them.

i think the buyer has every right to spend their money however they want and it likely was a good "investment." I just long for the days without some third party assigning a number to your treasure that determines its worth. I know I am a dinosaur and the ship is sailed but thats how I feel.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Frank A

I agree with you 100%. Thousands of people will die this winter because they can't afford gas or heating oil or electricity and will freeze to death and some guy spends millions on a friggin baseball card. I wonder if he gives a shit about them. I will guess he does not. The priorities of things has gone to hell.

Interesting take and probably worthy of its own thread but wealth disparity in this country is far from new.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Frank A

I agree with you 100%. Thousands of people will die this winter because they can't afford gas or heating oil or electricity and will freeze to death and some guy spends millions on a friggin baseball card. I wonder if he gives a shit about them. I will guess he does not. The priorities of things has gone to hell.

Originally Posted by jingram058

I think 12.6M for ANY baseball card, a piece of cardboard, with all that's going on in the world, makes me mad. That someone has that much disposable pocket change, to plunk down on a baseball card, no matter their "investment" or possible "flip" options or what the f%$# ever, makes me mad. I am not jealous. I find it ridiculous in the extreme and it makes me mad. And with that, I am done...

Well, the answer is not here, it is at the ballot box.

Meanwhile, I personally would not have paid that for the card. I'd rather have a nice midgrade card and a beach house in Malibu. There's more to life than baseball cards



Or so I have heard. After 27 years of marriage, I have no friggin' idea.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Well, the answer is not here, it is at the ballot box.

Meanwhile, I personally would not have paid that for the card. I'd rather have a nice midgrade card and a beach house in Malibu. There's more to life than baseball cards



Or so I have heard. After 27 years of marriage, I have no friggin' idea.

Adam, I think it may be time for you to update your signature line if you really believe this.

[Touch'EmAll]

The card went for 2.6 million over the target price about 10 million.

I understand the various feelings (good, bad, ugly) regarding the final price. Change happens and our hobby is no longer the way it used to be. Investment is now a motive perhaps more than anything else.

Lets assume the card went for 2.6 million under the 10 million estimate = 7.4 million final total. Interesting to contemplate the reactions if that had happened.

Rare art is really just some paint on a canvas. Do we knock the current market and what someone is willing to pay? A Ferrari is just a car with fancier sheet metal and motor. Do we knock what one is willing to pay? A baseball card is just cardboard with a players picture, should we knock what one is willing to pay? A rich person paying mega bucks for a 15 bedroom mansion ... you get the point.

On the one hand it sucks for us regular folks who can no longer afford what we used to buy. But on the other hand, the stuff we do have is now worth way more. Aw, jeez. It is what it is. Overall, I lean toward this Mantle sale as generally good for the hobby.

Steve Parmentier

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Adam, I think it may be time for you to update your signature line if you really believe this.

Well since I don't have the money or the beach house, my comments are purely aspirational, while my tag line is realistic.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Frank A

I agree with you 100%. Thousands of people will die this winter because they can't afford gas or heating oil or electricity and will freeze to death and some guy spends millions on a friggin baseball card. I wonder if he gives a shit about them. I will guess he does not. The priorities of things has gone to hell.

Many people love collectibles. And some people in the world become excessively wealthy. Therefore, it's easy to have a marketplace where the prices for the most prized collectibles get incredibly high.

This is not anything new. Priorities are not "going to hell" all of a sudden. It's just how one part of the planet's economy has always functioned.

And the buyer might even have a big philanthropic side as well; there's no way of knowing (at least not yet) if he's the Mr. Burns that you guys want to assume.

But regardless, it's so pointless and unhealthy to let wealthy people spending their $ on an asset bother you so much.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Many people love collectibles. And some people in the world become excessively wealthy. Therefore, it's easy to have a marketplace where the prices for the most prized collectibles get incredibly high.

This is not anything new. Priorities are not "going to hell" all of a sudden. It's just how one part of the planet's economy has always functioned.

And the buyer might even have a big philanthropic side as well; there's no way of knowing (at least not yet) if he's the Mr. Burns that you guys want to assume.

But regardless, it's so pointless and unhealthy to let wealthy people spending their $ on an asset bother you so much.

If you want to be really bothered about money that could have helped needy people being wasted, look at some of the line items in reports on waste in the federal budget. One Mantle card is chump change. Now, back to cards.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by Frank A

I agree with you 100%. Thousands of people will die this winter because they can't afford gas or heating oil or electricity and will freeze to death and some guy spends millions on a friggin baseball card. I wonder if he gives a shit about them. I will guess he does not. The priorities of things has gone to hell.

I am always somewhat intrigued at how some people are judged by others, who have never spoken to them, let alone gotten to know them really to the core.

I have friends that I've known for years. Some have shown their true colors and are no longer friends, and others volunteer their time at the local children's hospital and food bank. It took me years to find out their values and what they truly care about, and this happens over time.

Yet somehow, someone spends a lot of money (which is always relative) on a collectible (or a car, or art, or a purse) and that shows the world what their values are and how they are deep in their core? I doubt that. We don't even know their name.

[Johnny630]

I’ve never seen this amount of vitriol, anger, and bitterness over a Frigging Card. You either have one or don’t who the hell cares what other people do with their money? God Bless them. I’m just happy with what I have.

[Sean]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I’ve never seen this amount of vitriol, anger, and bitterness over a Frigging Card. You either have one or don’t who the hell cares what other people do with their money? God Bless them. I’m just happy with what I have.

+1

[Sean]

Originally Posted by Frank A

I agree with you 100%. Thousands of people will die this winter because they can't afford gas or heating oil or electricity and will freeze to death and some guy spends millions on a friggin baseball card. I wonder if he gives a shit about them. I will guess he does not. The priorities of things has gone to hell.

I don't understand this. As a child, I spent a nickel for a pack of cards. As an elderly man I spent six figures on one card. While this may indicate a lack of personal growth on my part, it doesn't mean that I don't care about the homeless. And we certainly don't know how the buyer of the Mantle card feels about problems around poverty. Poverty, homelessness and hunger have been with us for as long as I'm aware. We've spent countless dollars and the problems are still here. And every advanced society has had the idle rich, who take much more from society than they contribute. But to imply that a guy who spends huge money for a card is heartless, or for that matter to imply any connection between his spending and poverty is wrong.

You can feel any way you like about his spending that much money. I personally couldn't care less about the card. But that's no reason to imply that he's a bad person.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by hcv123

B) The other factor that I haven't seen mentioned yet is the relative value of baseball cards compared to other collectible categories. In that regard, I think the baseball card hobby is just getting warmed up. I see demand continuing to grow, especially so for the higher-end cards most of which are in ridiculously low supply relative to the demand. When I think about art or sculpture for example, 12.6 Million for one of the top 4 examples of one of the most iconic and high demand cards in the hobby just doesn't seem like that much money.

I hesitate to disagree with Howard, because he's a good friend, and has helped me immeasurably to get close to finishing my Master Mays set. He's also been a tremendous font of knowledge about almost every regional and oddball issue that is out there. And he's a true gentleman, so the last thing I want to do is start some sort of a Net54 spat, rife with ad hominem attacks, personal insults, and dirty words like "investor". So hopefully he will excuse my disagreeing with him.

But I sure hope he's wrong! Simply because when prices go up, it means that my dollars don't stretch as far when it comes to picking up great pieces for my own collection.

When I think about items with insane prices that are unmoored from reality, typically I think about things like original artwork, high end real estate in Vail (or her sister cities, of which there are many), wineries in Napa, rare classic cars, etc. When it comes to these items, I would posit that the biggest factors are:

1) Universality - they are sought by rich people around the world with money to burn.

2) They are extreme status symbols. There's nothing quite like owning an original DaVinci to show to the world and especially your filthy rich friends that you're a big deal, and possibly an even bigger deal than your other filthy rich friends.

I would argue that in many ways, at least on the baseball side, most of our cards don't have universal appeal. While certainly baseball is played outside of the U.S., including in South Korea, Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, and all around Latin America, I'm not convinced that for crazy rich people from those areas, collecting cards from U.S. players is going to be a huge draw. Not to mention all of the crazy rich people with money to burn from most of the rest of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, etc., just aren't going to be as excited to acquire American baseball cards compared to original artwork from a master.

When it comes to status symbols, baseball cards just don't have quite the same cache and panache as many of the other items that are out there. They're certainly not nearly as visible, and therefore usually not nearly as public. While I'm a poor excuse for a coastal elite, whether you're talking about the old money crowd, or even the new money crowd with all of the tech money, I just don't get the sense that a lot of them are looking to spend a lot of cash on our world. I would surmise that in some ways, those groups would not get the same amount of street cred amongst their peers from buying high-end baseball cards that they would get from buying other high-end items.

At the same time, $12M already has a lot of crazy priced into it. As others have observed, the odds are good that the Gretzky T206 Wagner or some of the PSA 10 1952T Mantles would probably fetch a higher price - possibly $20M, $50M, or more. And obviously at those prices, there are only so many houses in Vail, original pieces of art, and classic cars that would routinely fetch those prices.

So bottom line for me is that I have a hard time really seeing that our world will truly rival some of those other markets in terms of prices. But at the same time, maybe we're already kinda sorta there!

Not that I haven't been wrong before, and the odds are good that I will certainly be wrong again. But I really hope that I'm not wrong about this.