Are cards with older PSA cases worth less?

Snowman · #1 09-05-2022, 04:39 PM

I've been collecting data in an attempt to quantify this. It'll take a while for me to finish it (as I have little spare time), but what I've noticed is that it's really more the serial number than it is the holder itself (though they are highly correlated). The early serial numbers are almost all overgraded. There are exceptions obviously, as variance existed back then just as it does today, but the variance today is quite a bit wider than it was in the early days (which makes sense as they have a lot more graders today than they did back then). But the grade deltas aren't just 0.5 or 1 point off, they are often 2 full grades higher with early serials, and even sometimes upwards of 2.5 or 3 grades off (though that's rare). Putting a card like that into a new lighthouse slab might fool a few newer buyers, but it isn't going to fool the majority of collectors who are going to look at the card itself and make their own judgment.

I'm also working on a PSA serial number decoder algorithm to estimate when the card was graded. But cliff notes are that yes, early slabs/serials are absolutely worth less on average, and often times much, much less. This is more true for high-end cards than it is with set building commons since the set builders often care more about the grade than they do the card. But for guys like Ruth, Mantle, Mays, Jackie, Cobb, etc. it matters A LOT.

Carter08 · #2 09-05-2022, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snowman

I've been collecting data in an attempt to quantify this. It'll take a while for me to finish it (as I have little spare time), but what I've noticed is that it's really more the serial number than it is the holder itself (though they are highly correlated). The early serial numbers are almost all overgraded. There are exceptions obviously, as variance existed back then just as it does today, but the variance today is quite a bit wider than it was in the early days (which makes sense as they have a lot more graders today than they did back then). But the grade deltas aren't just 0.5 or 1 point off, they are often 2 full grades higher with early serials, and even sometimes upwards of 2.5 or 3 grades off (though that's rare). Putting a card like that into a new lighthouse slab might fool a few newer buyers, but it isn't going to fool the majority of collectors who are going to look at the card itself and make their own judgment.

I'm also working on a PSA serial number decoder algorithm to estimate when the card was graded. But cliff notes are that yes, early slabs/serials are absolutely worth less on average, and often times much, much less. This is more true for high-end cards than it is with set building commons since the set builders often care more about the grade than they do the card. But for guys like Ruth, Mantle, Mays, Jackie, Cobb, etc. it matters A LOT.

I think this just correlated generally - with definite exceptions - that an earlier cert number was a looser grading system than later cert numbers, particularly ones that start with a 6. Essentially people still pay for the card and not the holder but the more recent cert numbers tend to have nicer cards at the same
grade. Again, plenty of exceptions to the rule.

Johnny630 · #3 09-05-2022, 05:42 PM

In Memory Lane’s Current Auction there are two 1953 Topps Cards for sale in PSA 8 grades with very old serial numbers. A 1953 Mantle and a Mays both are doing phenomenal so far, the Mays if it ended right now would be a new record sale for in a PSA 8 grade.
I’m going to stick with each card is different regardless of when it was graded.
Just my opinion. I guess a better question would be if one came up in an old serial number but the card looked great and you wanted the card for your collection would it matter to you as long as the card in your eye was graded properly? I would in a heartbeat, like the 53 Mays PSA 8 in the above auction.

raulus · #4 09-05-2022, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny630

In Memory Lane�s Current Auction there are two 1953 Topps Cards for sale in PSA 8 grades with very old serial numbers. A 1953 Mantle and a Mays both are doing phenomenal so far, the Mays if it ended right now would be a new record sale for in a PSA 8 grade.
I�m going to stick with each card is different regardless of when it was graded.
Just my opinion. I guess a better question would be if one came up in an old serial number but the card looked great and you wanted the card for your collection would it matter to you as long as the card in your eye was graded properly? I would in a heartbeat, like the 53 Mays PSA 8 in the above auction.

Unless I�m mistaken, part of the fun with that 53T Mays PSA 8 is that it�s the first one to sell since the pandemic. So selling for a record price isn�t particularly noteworthy. But whether it sells for 3x, 5x, or 10x the previous price will certainly be noteworthy!

puckpaul · #5 09-05-2022, 06:31 PM

How can you tell from the serial number if a PSA card has been reslabbed? Is there a number that marks the line from old to new?

swarmee · #6 09-05-2022, 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by puckpaul

How can you tell from the serial number if a PSA card has been reslabbed? Is there a number that marks the line from old to new?

Old numbers (under about 25,000,000 and some starting with 30M, 50M, 90M) with a hologram or lighthouse style front flip have been reholdered. There are some differences in the flips and slabs that you can look at over time and figure it out.

parkplace33 · #7 09-06-2022, 10:04 AM

No, they are not IMO. That is a new "fad" that certain collectors talk about. To me, I don't care if the card was graded 20 years ago or 1 day ago, I look at the card and make my own decision about whether I want it.

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