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  #1  
Old 11-03-2022, 07:52 AM
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Snapolit1 Snapolit1 is offline
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Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.

The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.

Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.

I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.
Last edited by Snapolit1; 11-03-2022 at 07:54 AM.
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  #2  
Old 11-03-2022, 09:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snapolit1 View Post
Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.

The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.

Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.

I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.
From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.
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Last edited by Exhibitman; 11-03-2022 at 09:10 AM.
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  #3  
Old 11-03-2022, 09:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Exhibitman View Post
From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.
Shocking!
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  #4  
Old 11-03-2022, 12:39 PM
G1911 G1911 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Exhibitman View Post
From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.
And Topps got accused at about the same time of physically marking packs with a big hit for some reason.
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  #5  
Old 11-03-2022, 02:08 PM
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It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?
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  #6  
Old 11-03-2022, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by jsfriedm View Post
It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?
Color me surprised!

Just in October, they had 429 items, with some of the modern pieces selling for 7 figures or close to 7 figures.
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  #7  
Old 11-03-2022, 03:32 PM
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I think the recent comeback of card shows will fade as the market turns, particularly in those regional places you normally wouldn't expect to find one.
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  #8  
Old 11-03-2022, 04:14 PM
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  #9  
Old 11-04-2022, 01:36 AM
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It's just a hobby
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  #10  
Old 11-03-2022, 07:47 PM
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Originally Posted by jsfriedm View Post
It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?
My mistake, looks like it was just a temporary software glitch.
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  #11  
Old 11-03-2022, 08:05 PM
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Meanwhile, I get emails daily from Probstein about their investment worthy cards for sale. Mostly the predictable modern.
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  #12  
Old 11-06-2022, 01:54 AM
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It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?
It's up and running tonight. Closes November 17th.
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  #13  
Old 11-07-2022, 05:07 PM
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Originally Posted by exhibitman View Post
from what i've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone [who fails to understand probability thoery] did a [poor job of] mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype babe ruth.
fyp...
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  #14  
Old 11-03-2022, 09:26 AM
parkplace33 parkplace33 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snapolit1 View Post
Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.

The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.

Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.

I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.
In the past yes, I would agree with you. But not right now. There is some correlation.

"A rising tide lifts all boats". Interest in any area of the hobby helps the entire hobby. But concern in one area has impact, abit small, in other areas.
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  #15  
Old 11-03-2022, 10:56 AM
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Originally Posted by parkplace33 View Post
In the past yes, I would agree with you. But not right now. There is some correlation.

"A rising tide lifts all boats". Interest in any area of the hobby helps the entire hobby. But concern in one area has impact, abit small, in other areas.
Except that a boat with a hole in it just becomes further underwater.
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  #16  
Old 11-03-2022, 11:44 AM
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There was a post a while back about collecting goals for the next year.

Like a few of you have mentioned, the stuff in grades I prefer to collect (er, used to) is now out of my budget. So to fill the void, I have been dabbling in a small handful of the the brightest current modern stars. I have been buying raw cards on ebay, then send to PSA and have been pleased with the results. It has been fun keeping the hobby alive for me in this way.

However, my real goal has been to not sell any of my pre-war. And I have stuck to that goal. Enjoy and hold what you already have.
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  #17  
Old 11-03-2022, 12:35 PM
raulus raulus is online now
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Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll View Post
There was a post a while back about collecting goals for the next year.

Like a few of you have mentioned, the stuff in grades I prefer to collect (er, used to) is now out of my budget. So to fill the void, I have been dabbling in a small handful of the the brightest current modern stars. I have been buying raw cards on ebay, then send to PSA and have been pleased with the results. It has been fun keeping the hobby alive for me in this way.

However, my real goal has been to not sell any of my pre-war. And I have stuck to that goal. Enjoy and hold what you already have.
Sounds like a fun approach.

You mentioned that the grades have been pleasing. Out of curiosity, just how pleasing? 9s and 10s?

While not the only thing I've been doing, I've been taking a similar approach to some of my childhood stars with pieces from 1980-2010. But my grades have been almost exclusively 8s and 9s, which was sub-optimal.
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