CAN WE SOLVE THIS HOBBY (SPORTS CARD) CRISIS? Video and Discussion

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Comparing the modern card market to vintage is like comparing people fighting over the latest high end Tesla to guys who collect vintage Camaros. Almost zero correlation or overlap.

The modern trading realm was jettisoned into the stratosphere by the world of box and case breakers. Buy a spot in a break for $995 and possibly pull the million dollar Zion or Justin Herbert. Pure gambling. 100% Buy a pricey lottery ticket. Spend a relatively modest amount and you too have a chance of pulling a million dollar card. Yes, there was a chance. Negligibly small, but there are plenty of videos of millions dollar pulls. Of course nothing like that on a large scale with vintage.

Complete apples to oranges. Not many 25 year old wheeler dealers are shelling out $50,000 for a high end vintage card. Not the same adrenaline rush.

I feel bad for guys who opened brick and mortar card shops at the height of the mania for modern. They are getting killed. No one is buying a $8,000 box of football cards right now. Nobody. And they prob can't sell the $800 boxes either. That bubble has officially burst. There is one breaking outfit I started watching in the pandemic and they are slow slow slow. Even laid a guy off recently.

From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.

Shocking!

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

From what I've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone did a mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by Panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype Babe Ruth.

And Topps got accused at about the same time of physically marking packs with a big hit for some reason.

[jsfriedm]

It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?

Color me surprised!

Just in October, they had 429 items, with some of the modern pieces selling for 7 figures or close to 7 figures.

[Yoda]

I think the recent comeback of card shows will fade as the market turns, particularly in those regional places you normally wouldn't expect to find one.

[Peter_Spaeth]

lolz

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

FAKE NEWS.

Everyone knows that cardboard only goes up.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

lots of doom and gloom in the hobby today. Investing in a t206 wagner would've been a tad bit smarter than the kobe card.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

Football and basketball cards crash quick and hard.

This recent explosion fueled by sneakerheads and fashion-flippers was heavy in on football and basketball. It's been a harder drop than in the past.

We did get some neat/weird stuff attempting to cater to that crowd, though. I am a fan some of the Topps Project 70 (and similar) issues to appeal to that demographic's sense of style.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

lolz

Where did this info come from? Or this guy talking about himself....?

[lowpopper]

It's just a hobby

[brianp-beme]

My vintage brain (which squeaks when I move too quickly) tells me that the Kobe card shown still is 50 to 100x too much.

Brian

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?

My mistake, looks like it was just a temporary software glitch.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Meanwhile, I get emails daily from Probstein about their investment worthy cards for sale. Mostly the predictable modern.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

It seems that PWCC's November Premier Auction has been cancelled. Unrelated coincidence, or symptom of the market downturn?

It's up and running tonight. Closes November 17th.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by exhibitman

from what i've been reading, there is a whiff of stinky from the breaking world. Someone [who fails to understand probability thoery] did a [poor job of] mathematical analysis of the pulls by one breaking influencer and basically concluded that they either had the greatest luck in history or they were being fed loaded boxes by panini in order to hype the brand. True? I have no idea. But no one has to hype babe ruth.

fyp...