Card Prices During Recessions

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yep. If the objective is investment, stick to these basics.

I agree about staying to the basics for a financial investment. That said, that isn't always my objective. My objective is to get cards I think are cool and want in my collection. Esoteric cards are not necessarily the way to long term financial success, but they are fun nonetheless.

One for fun and one of the basics (if you will).

[Snowman]

If we're in a recession, then previous definitions and understandings is what a recession is and entails have begun to lose their meaning. In my observation, the social and economic dynamics currently in play are so fundamentally distinguished in some ways from other past examples of economic turbulence that we just don't have much to draw from when trying to learn from history.

There's also just so much uncertainty as to how things will play out globally. We're all gambling here. But I'm still placing my bets on high end vintage.

[Exhibitman]

Nicely put Leon! I wanna play too:

One for the basics:



One for fun:

[paleocards]

I track sold prices on eBay and AHs for all of my "blue chips" (see the other active thread for "blue chip" def'n - haha). Here's some of the average annual sale data I've collected:

T206 Tris Speaker PSA 5 (although this one doesn't go back to the 2008 recession, it's the oldest pre-war in my collection with these data collected)
2010 avg: $914.38
2011 avg: $780.40
2012 avg: $935.75
2013 avg: $1,147.82
2014 avg: $1,068.84
2015 avg: $1,092.89
2016 avg: $1,201.60
2017 avg: $1,183.66
2018 avg: $1,245.96
2019 avg: $2,944.19
2020 avg: $2,007.92
2021 avg: $3,065.00
2022 avg: $3,961.97

1954 #10 Jackie Robinson PSA 8
2007 avg: $813.07
2008 avg: $903.90
2009 avg: $782.68
2010 avg: $773.74
2011 avg: $1,108.24
2012 avg: $1,009.19
2013 avg: $1,176.84
2014 avg: $1,257.32
2015 avg: $1,448.63
2016 avg: $1,624.36
2017 avg: $1,687.01
2018 avg: $1,944.51
2019 avg: $2,660.84
2020 avg: $3,509.34
2021 avg: $7,301.32
2022 avg: $7,883.44

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax RC PSA 7
2008 avg: $882.62
2009 avg: $909.13
2010 avg: $850.15
2011 avg: $915.60
2012 avg: $1,034.23
2013 avg: $1,285.43
2014 avg: $1,249.50
2015 avg: $1,690.90
2016 avg: $3,639.44
2017 avg: $2,632.69
2018 avg: $2,615.77
2019 avg: $2,553.74
2020 avg: $3,357.98
2021 avg: $8,282.95
2022 avg: $7,081.04

1959 Topps #514 Bob Gibson RC PSA 8
2005 avg: $667.04
2006 avg: $619.34
2007 avg: $672.12
2008 avg: $765.71
2009 avg: $854.03
2010 avg: $780.13
2011 avg: $817.88
2012 avg: $838.16
2013 avg: $933.05
2014 avg: $1,262.72
2015 avg: $1,486.38
2016 avg: $2,279.96
2017 avg: $2,018.58
2018 avg: $2,070.23
2019 avg: $2,178.16
2020 avg: $2,749.59
2021 avg: $6,292.13
2022 avg: $6,281.35

The take-away from these data for me are that blue chip baseball cards are a good (long-term) investment. There seems to be a consistent dip in sale prices in the year or two post-recession (2009, 2010) but they all re-gained those losses and continued to appreciate. And of course, the last two years' gains have been unprecedented.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by paleocards

I track sold prices on eBay and AHs for all of my "blue chips" (see the other active thread for "blue chip" def'n - haha). Here's some of the average annual sale data I've collected:

T206 Tris Speaker PSA 5 (although this one doesn't go back to the 2008 recession, it's the oldest pre-war in my collection with these data collected)
2010 avg: $914.38
2011 avg: $780.40
2012 avg: $935.75
2013 avg: $1,147.82
2014 avg: $1,068.84
2015 avg: $1,092.89
2016 avg: $1,201.60
2017 avg: $1,183.66
2018 avg: $1,245.96
2019 avg: $2,944.19
2020 avg: $2,007.92
2021 avg: $3,065.00
2022 avg: $3,961.97

1954 #10 Jackie Robinson PSA 8
2007 avg: $813.07
2008 avg: $903.90
2009 avg: $782.68
2010 avg: $773.74
2011 avg: $1,108.24
2012 avg: $1,009.19
2013 avg: $1,176.84
2014 avg: $1,257.32
2015 avg: $1,448.63
2016 avg: $1,624.36
2017 avg: $1,687.01
2018 avg: $1,944.51
2019 avg: $2,660.84
2020 avg: $3,509.34
2021 avg: $7,301.32
2022 avg: $7,883.44

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax RC PSA 7
2008 avg: $882.62
2009 avg: $909.13
2010 avg: $850.15
2011 avg: $915.60
2012 avg: $1,034.23
2013 avg: $1,285.43
2014 avg: $1,249.50
2015 avg: $1,690.90
2016 avg: $3,639.44
2017 avg: $2,632.69
2018 avg: $2,615.77
2019 avg: $2,553.74
2020 avg: $3,357.98
2021 avg: $8,282.95
2022 avg: $7,081.04

1959 Topps #514 Bob Gibson RC PSA 8
2005 avg: $667.04
2006 avg: $619.34
2007 avg: $672.12
2008 avg: $765.71
2009 avg: $854.03
2010 avg: $780.13
2011 avg: $817.88
2012 avg: $838.16
2013 avg: $933.05
2014 avg: $1,262.72
2015 avg: $1,486.38
2016 avg: $2,279.96
2017 avg: $2,018.58
2018 avg: $2,070.23
2019 avg: $2,178.16
2020 avg: $2,749.59
2021 avg: $6,292.13
2022 avg: $6,281.35

The take-away from these data for me are that blue chip baseball cards are a good (long-term) investment. There seems to be a consistent dip in sale prices in the year or two post-recession (2009, 2010) but they all re-gained those losses and continued to appreciate. And of course, the last two years' gains have been unprecedented.

Wow that must have taken a lot of time. Thanks for the info and sharing.
Interesting numbers

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by paleocards

I track sold prices on eBay and AHs for all of my "blue chips" (see the other active thread for "blue chip" def'n - haha). Here's some of the average annual sale data I've collected:

The take-away from these data for me are that blue chip baseball cards are a good (long-term) investment. There seems to be a consistent dip in sale prices in the year or two post-recession (2009, 2010) but they all re-gained those losses and continued to appreciate. And of course, the last two years' gains have been unprecedented.

Great compilation of data and I think it illustrates what many here have stated which is that over the long haul, cards have done well. Sure the data presented is limited but my guess is that the average price even for a 1965 Topps Harmon Killebrew PSA 7 is higher today than it was in 2005 and well above the rate of inflation.

Even with prices on many vintage cards being softer since April 2022, I think most are still well above their pre pandemic highs.

[Directly]

Around 2004 I bought a couple raw T206 Red Portrait Cobbs (Ex) in the $500 range --I sure would like to have a couple more at that level--if history repeats itself, I'm in!

[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by paleocards

I track sold prices on eBay and AHs for all of my "blue chips" (see the other active thread for "blue chip" def'n - haha). Here's some of the average annual sale data I've collected:

T206 Tris Speaker PSA 5 (although this one doesn't go back to the 2008 recession, it's the oldest pre-war in my collection with these data collected)
2010 avg: $914.38
2011 avg: $780.40
2012 avg: $935.75
2013 avg: $1,147.82
2014 avg: $1,068.84
2015 avg: $1,092.89
2016 avg: $1,201.60
2017 avg: $1,183.66
2018 avg: $1,245.96
2019 avg: $2,944.19
2020 avg: $2,007.92
2021 avg: $3,065.00
2022 avg: $3,961.97

1954 #10 Jackie Robinson PSA 8
2007 avg: $813.07
2008 avg: $903.90
2009 avg: $782.68
2010 avg: $773.74
2011 avg: $1,108.24
2012 avg: $1,009.19
2013 avg: $1,176.84
2014 avg: $1,257.32
2015 avg: $1,448.63
2016 avg: $1,624.36
2017 avg: $1,687.01
2018 avg: $1,944.51
2019 avg: $2,660.84
2020 avg: $3,509.34
2021 avg: $7,301.32
2022 avg: $7,883.44

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax RC PSA 7
2008 avg: $882.62
2009 avg: $909.13
2010 avg: $850.15
2011 avg: $915.60
2012 avg: $1,034.23
2013 avg: $1,285.43
2014 avg: $1,249.50
2015 avg: $1,690.90
2016 avg: $3,639.44
2017 avg: $2,632.69
2018 avg: $2,615.77
2019 avg: $2,553.74
2020 avg: $3,357.98
2021 avg: $8,282.95
2022 avg: $7,081.04

1959 Topps #514 Bob Gibson RC PSA 8
2005 avg: $667.04
2006 avg: $619.34
2007 avg: $672.12
2008 avg: $765.71
2009 avg: $854.03
2010 avg: $780.13
2011 avg: $817.88
2012 avg: $838.16
2013 avg: $933.05
2014 avg: $1,262.72
2015 avg: $1,486.38
2016 avg: $2,279.96
2017 avg: $2,018.58
2018 avg: $2,070.23
2019 avg: $2,178.16
2020 avg: $2,749.59
2021 avg: $6,292.13
2022 avg: $6,281.35

The take-away from these data for me are that blue chip baseball cards are a good (long-term) investment. There seems to be a consistent dip in sale prices in the year or two post-recession (2009, 2010) but they all re-gained those losses and continued to appreciate. And of course, the last two years' gains have been unprecedented.

I've put the figures from paleocards into Excel to show the Year over Year change. My observations:

• The increases started accelerating later in the economic cycle. Kind of when I started seeing more and more youtube videos about card investing.
• You can see some pretty big spikes. The spikes are generally followed by declines the year after (but the gain far exceeds the decline)

I agree that quality wins out over time but I also think we haven't seen a traditional economic cycle since 2007. The COVID induced recessions was unique with the vast amounts of money that was printed and put into the ecoomy. I don't think that we've had had a "proper recession" since the credit crisis and the figures really only start after that. I'd love to have the same data going back to the 1980s.

As Leon says, it's all about the demand because the supply of pre-war and post war vintage isn't really changing. I'm starting to notice some softening of prices. Not everywhere but in some places. But if the economy turns south where people are losing their jobs or they're scared that they'll lose their jobs....then discretionary spending on things like cars, art and baseball cards will be amongst the first to go. That's just the way the economic cycle goes.

At that point, prices will inevitably fall. I have no idea by how much. We all have collections of cards, that means that we have a natural bias about how we look at this. It's human nature to want to find information that aligns with what we want to hear. My gut tells me that there will be some substantial falls over the next few years. For the "investors" that joined the hobby in the last 5+ years, I can't help but think that when prices start to fall that they'll bail out. That'll only accelerate things. Then again....I'll be able to buy at cheaper prices. :-)

[Johnny630]

Do the investors have the stomach to stay the course? The quality high-end vintage not the mediocre, the cream, always comes back and when it does come back it comes back strong and falls the least in down markets. Things are looking good. I’m not worried.

[rats60]

1980 recession cards went up
1982 recession cards went up
1991 recession cards went up
2001 recession cards went up
2008 recession cards went down
2020 recession cards went up

[Republicaninmass]

2016-2019 we see stagnation or drop, other than Jackie. Then a divergence from the historical annual gains by 30-50%. If you dont have to sell in the next few years, you will be fine.

Edited "dont have sell:

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

We all have collections of cards, that means that we have a natural bias about how we look at this. It's human nature to want to find information that aligns with what we want to hear. My gut tells me that there will be some substantial falls over the next few years. For the "investors" that joined the hobby in the last 5+ years, I can't help but think that when prices start to fall that they'll bail out. That'll only accelerate things. Then again....I'll be able to buy at cheaper prices. :-)

I agree. Those of us lucky enough (I won't say prescient enough) to have purchased the big boys 10+ years ago will be just fine regardless, even if we have to sell into a price drop. Which many of us might not have to do. Again, though, we aren't in a recession, it is inflation. I'd rather have hard assets that are not interest rate dependent than cash in an inflationary period. We will be in a recession some day for sure but when that is I don't know. if I did I wouldn't be worrying about card prices, I'd be placing bets, er, investing in futures.

Meanwhile, since we have financialized collecting, I wonder how many of us have serious chunks of buying cash set aside waiting for the dip in card prices? I have a big shopping list for then...someone please ring a bell or something when it happens.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Meanwhile, since we have financialized collecting, I wonder how many of us have serious chunks of buying cash set aside waiting for the dip in card prices? I have a big shopping list for then...someone please ring a bell or something when it happens.

Got to have lots of dry powder standing by for when the goons leave!

[MailboxBaseball]

Originally Posted by paleocards

i track sold prices on ebay and ahs for all of my "blue chips" (see the other active thread for "blue chip" def'n - haha). Here's some of the average annual sale data i've collected:

T206 tris speaker psa 5 (although this one doesn't go back to the 2008 recession, it's the oldest pre-war in my collection with these data collected)
2010 avg: $914.38
2011 avg: $780.40
2012 avg: $935.75
2013 avg: $1,147.82
2014 avg: $1,068.84
2015 avg: $1,092.89
2016 avg: $1,201.60
2017 avg: $1,183.66
2018 avg: $1,245.96
2019 avg: $2,944.19
2020 avg: $2,007.92
2021 avg: $3,065.00
2022 avg: $3,961.97

1954 #10 jackie robinson psa 8
2007 avg: $813.07
2008 avg: $903.90
2009 avg: $782.68
2010 avg: $773.74
2011 avg: $1,108.24
2012 avg: $1,009.19
2013 avg: $1,176.84
2014 avg: $1,257.32
2015 avg: $1,448.63
2016 avg: $1,624.36
2017 avg: $1,687.01
2018 avg: $1,944.51
2019 avg: $2,660.84
2020 avg: $3,509.34
2021 avg: $7,301.32
2022 avg: $7,883.44

1955 topps #123 sandy koufax rc psa 7
2008 avg: $882.62
2009 avg: $909.13
2010 avg: $850.15
2011 avg: $915.60
2012 avg: $1,034.23
2013 avg: $1,285.43
2014 avg: $1,249.50
2015 avg: $1,690.90
2016 avg: $3,639.44
2017 avg: $2,632.69
2018 avg: $2,615.77
2019 avg: $2,553.74
2020 avg: $3,357.98
2021 avg: $8,282.95
2022 avg: $7,081.04

1959 topps #514 bob gibson rc psa 8
2005 avg: $667.04
2006 avg: $619.34
2007 avg: $672.12
2008 avg: $765.71
2009 avg: $854.03
2010 avg: $780.13
2011 avg: $817.88
2012 avg: $838.16
2013 avg: $933.05
2014 avg: $1,262.72
2015 avg: $1,486.38
2016 avg: $2,279.96
2017 avg: $2,018.58
2018 avg: $2,070.23
2019 avg: $2,178.16
2020 avg: $2,749.59
2021 avg: $6,292.13
2022 avg: $6,281.35

the take-away from these data for me are that blue chip baseball cards are a good (long-term) investment. There seems to be a consistent dip in sale prices in the year or two post-recession (2009, 2010) but they all re-gained those losses and continued to appreciate. And of course, the last two years' gains have been unprecedented.

great stuff! Thanks for providing this data. Its very much appreciated!

[MailboxBaseball]

Originally Posted by Leon

I agree about staying to the basics for a financial investment. That said, that isn't always my objective. My objective is to get cards I think are cool and want in my collection. Esoteric cards are not necessarily the way to long term financial success, but they are fun nonetheless.

One for fun and one of the basics (if you will).

Awesome Ruth Leon. Yeah I agree, every collection should have part devoted to coolness over value. For me, thats always been Garbage Pail Kids