Hall of Fame Ballot Announced

[packs]

You have to mash to get into the HOF at first base. Keith Hernandez did not mash. Tony Perez his over 200 more home runs than Hernandez and drove in over 600 more runs.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by packs

You have to mash to get into the HOF at first base. Keith Hernandez did not mash. Tony Perez his over 200 more home runs than Hernandez and drove in over 600 more runs.

Not all first baseman in the HOF "mashed".

Hernandez has more career Homers than Bill Terry.

I'm just saying Hernandez deserves another shot.

[G1911]

He hit .296, he walked well, he had little power. If .296/.384/.436 in the context that he did it is a HOF 1B, then we'd have to elect a ton of people. If it is his defense, well, I really don't see an argument for a defensive 1B to be elected while people revile every defense-first HOFer except for Ozzie Smith (Mazeroski, Maranville, Schalk, everyone but Ozzie dots the 'worst HOFer' opinion lists).

I get that Hernandez was very good at playing 1B, but I have a hard time ascribing the huge value to this that WAR does. Killebrew -18.7, Hernandez +1.3 (a positive at 1B is very, very tough); it's how they punish 1B not to dominate the rankings with their bats. 1B also has a positional adjustment factor on top of the dWAR component. Thus it has Killebrew and Hernandez equal overall in WAR because of the dWAR gap. I cannot fathom a single team picking Hernandez over Killebrew, not because they are stupid and don't understand analytics, but because Killebrew is clearly more valuable. WAR has a lot of problems with defense; one of many reasons it should not be treated as gospel.

Will Clark and Fred McGriff are better candidates for 1B who played when Hernandez did.

Olerud, Hernandez, they are better than the absolute worst 1B, but those mistakes should not be extended to justify hundreds of more mistakes.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by G1911

He hit .296, he walked well, he had little power. If .296/.384/.436 in the context that he did it is a HOF 1B, then we'd have to elect a ton of people. If it is his defense, well, I really don't see an argument for a defensive 1B to be elected while people revile every defense-first HOFer except for Ozzie Smith (Mazeroski, Maranville, Schalk, everyone but Ozzie dots the 'worst HOFer' opinion lists).

I get that Hernandez was very good at playing 1B, but I have a hard time ascribing the huge value to this that WAR does. Killebrew -18.7, Hernandez +1.3 (a positive at 1B is very, very tough); it's how they punish 1B not to dominate the rankings with their bats. 1B also has a positional adjustment factor on top of the dWAR component. Thus it has Killebrew and Hernandez equal overall in WAR because of the dWAR gap. I cannot fathom a single team picking Hernandez over Killebrew, not because they are stupid and don't understand analytics, but because Killebrew is clearly more valuable. WAR has a lot of problems with defense; one of many reasons it should not be treated as gospel.

Will Clark and Fred McGriff are better candidates for 1B who played when Hernandez did.

Olerud, Hernandez, they are better than the absolute worst 1B, but those mistakes should not be extended to justify hundreds of more mistakes.

I think you have some good points, until your last sentence "Olerud, Hernandez, they are better than the absolute worst 1B, but those mistakes should not be extended to justify hundreds of more mistakes"

We live in a big Hall world. If we lived in a small Hall world, I would agree that Hernandez should not be considered. But in our current reality, he should get another shot.

And letting Hernandez in wouldn't open the floodgates to "hundreds of more mistakes"

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

I think you have some good points, until your last sentence "Olerud, Hernandez, they are better than the absolute worst 1B, but those mistakes should not be extended to justify hundreds of more mistakes"

We live in a big Hall world. If we lived in a small Hall world, I would agree that Hernandez should not be considered. But in our current reality, he should get another shot.

And letting Hernandez in wouldn't open the floodgates to "hundreds of more mistakes"

Hernandez himself isn’t, but the logic to get him in does open the massive floodgate. “X is better than Y, Y is in, therefore we should elect X”. Considering some of the atrocious choices made, this is probably more like a thousand players who can be justified by it than a couple hundred. I think comparing to the general standards of the 1B in as a group is a good way to do it, or to focus on the very best at a position who are not in (the Hall inevitably waters down for it to continue functioning over time, but this directs that watering down to those closest to the extant threshold). I don’t see Hernandez meeting either standard. He fails at the traditional stats (he was very good, he only fails in the context of the Hall of Fame), and is left with a WAR argument, of which he is an oddity. WAR is written to punish first basemen, and the way that they do this is designed around a factor that he dodges because of his unusual style as a player, as a glove heavy 1B. I think WAR does a decent job of comparing offense among contemporaries (it is very much geared to the current game as it is played now, not how it was played in 1960 or 1930 or 1887), but the defensive adjustments is where it runs off the tracks, and some rather dubious values are given for some players.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by G1911

Hernandez himself isn’t, but the logic to get him in does open the massive floodgate. “X is better than Y, Y is in, therefore we should elect X”. Considering some of the atrocious choices made, this is probably more like a thousand players who can be justified by it than a couple hundred. I think comparing to the general standards of the 1B in as a group is a good way to do it, or to focus on the very best at a position who are not in (the Hall inevitably waters down for it to continue functioning over time, but this directs that watering down to those closest to the extant threshold). I don’t see Hernandez meeting either standard. He fails at the traditional stats (he was very good, he only fails in the context of the Hall of Fame), and is left with a WAR argument, of which he is an oddity. WAR is written to punish first basemen, and the way that they do this is designed around a factor that he dodges because of his unusual style as a player, as a glove heavy 1B. I think WAR does a decent job of comparing offense among contemporaries (it is very much geared to the current game as it is played now, not how it was played in 1960 or 1930 or 1887), but the defensive adjustments is where it runs off the tracks, and some rather dubious values are given for some players.

If we were comparing Hernandez to George Highpockets Kelly and Jim Bottomley (the two worst 1B in the HOF), then I think your argument would make sense. But I wasn't comparing Hernandez to them.

Hernandez has a lot more than just WAR. He has an MVP and two other top 5 finishes. He was a central figure for two different team's championships. He has a batting title, 2 silver sluggers, and 5 All Star nods.

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

If we were comparing Hernandez to George Highpockets Kelly and Jim Bottomley (the two worst 1B in the HOF), then I think your argument would make sense. But I wasn't comparing Hernandez to them.

Hernandez has a lot more than just WAR. He has an MVP and two other top 5 finishes. He was a central figure for two different team's championships. He has a batting title, 2 silver sluggers, and 5 All Star nods.

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

An MVP, a single batting title, 2 silver sluggers and 5 all star-games are not exactly Hall figures. That's not a standard I think anyone would embrace. Hernandez played like a Hall of Famer in 1981 if we accepted single seasons, but as a career honor, I can find no career figure that indicates Hall of Fame except for his borderline WAR, which is the odd result of an equation written to dictate an outcome for the 90% of 1B. It helps Olerud too. I was surprised not to see Olerud on his career similarity scores, but he does dominate the age season comparables.

Now George Kelly I think we can all agree on

[packs]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Not all first baseman in the HOF "mashed".

Hernandez has more career Homers than Bill Terry.

I'm just saying Hernandez deserves another shot.

Bill Terry hit 400. If Keith Hernandez hit 400 I'd want him in too. But he didn't. He also didn't hit 341 over his career like Terry did, which is extraordinary.