Hall of Fame Ballot Announced

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by G1911

Hernandez himself isn’t, but the logic to get him in does open the massive floodgate. “X is better than Y, Y is in, therefore we should elect X”. Considering some of the atrocious choices made, this is probably more like a thousand players who can be justified by it than a couple hundred. I think comparing to the general standards of the 1B in as a group is a good way to do it, or to focus on the very best at a position who are not in (the Hall inevitably waters down for it to continue functioning over time, but this directs that watering down to those closest to the extant threshold). I don’t see Hernandez meeting either standard. He fails at the traditional stats (he was very good, he only fails in the context of the Hall of Fame), and is left with a WAR argument, of which he is an oddity. WAR is written to punish first basemen, and the way that they do this is designed around a factor that he dodges because of his unusual style as a player, as a glove heavy 1B. I think WAR does a decent job of comparing offense among contemporaries (it is very much geared to the current game as it is played now, not how it was played in 1960 or 1930 or 1887), but the defensive adjustments is where it runs off the tracks, and some rather dubious values are given for some players.

If we were comparing Hernandez to George Highpockets Kelly and Jim Bottomley (the two worst 1B in the HOF), then I think your argument would make sense. But I wasn't comparing Hernandez to them.

Hernandez has a lot more than just WAR. He has an MVP and two other top 5 finishes. He was a central figure for two different team's championships. He has a batting title, 2 silver sluggers, and 5 All Star nods.

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

If we were comparing Hernandez to George Highpockets Kelly and Jim Bottomley (the two worst 1B in the HOF), then I think your argument would make sense. But I wasn't comparing Hernandez to them.

Hernandez has a lot more than just WAR. He has an MVP and two other top 5 finishes. He was a central figure for two different team's championships. He has a batting title, 2 silver sluggers, and 5 All Star nods.

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

An MVP, a single batting title, 2 silver sluggers and 5 all star-games are not exactly Hall figures. That's not a standard I think anyone would embrace. Hernandez played like a Hall of Famer in 1981 if we accepted single seasons, but as a career honor, I can find no career figure that indicates Hall of Fame except for his borderline WAR, which is the odd result of an equation written to dictate an outcome for the 90% of 1B. It helps Olerud too. I was surprised not to see Olerud on his career similarity scores, but he does dominate the age season comparables.

Now George Kelly I think we can all agree on

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by G1911

An MVP, a single batting title, 2 silver sluggers and 5 all star-games are not exactly Hall figures.

Exactly. Hernandez had a WONDERFUL career. But lots of guys have had wonderful careers that don't belong in the Hall. Bill Madlock won FOUR batting titles and was a 3-time All-Star, was a major factor in a title for Pittsburgh, and a major factor in a division title for Detroit. Nobody thinks he belongs - but he had a wonderful career. And so on.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Exactly. Hernandez had a WONDERFUL career. But lots of guys have had wonderful careers that don't belong in the Hall. Bill Madlock won FOUR batting titles and was a 3-time All-Star, was a major factor in a title for Pittsburgh, and a major factor in a division title for Detroit. Nobody thinks he belongs - but he had a wonderful career. And so on.

You guys are right. Hernandez' 11 Gold Gloves are meaningless and Bill Madlock is a fair comparison with Keith Hernandez. Well done.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

You guys are right. Hernandez' 11 Gold Gloves are meaningless and Bill Madlock is a fair comparison with Keith Hernandez. Well done.

Madlock is very similar offensively. .305/.365/.442/123 OPS+ is pretty close to .296/.384/.436/128+ at the same time in the same league. if Keith's batting title is a HOF credential, Madlock's 4 is a lot stronger.

I don't think more than a tiny minority of fans will consider 1B gold gloves to be much of a Hall argument.

[ejharrington]

Originally Posted by G1911

Madlock is very similar offensively. .305/.365/.442/123 OPS+ is pretty close to .296/.384/.436/128+ at the same time in the same league. if Keith's batting title is a HOF credential, Madlock's 4 is a lot stronger.

I don't think more than a tiny minority of fans will consider 1B gold gloves to be much of a Hall argument.

Madlock was a poor defender and Hernandez is generally regarded as the best defensive 1B to ever play. A lot of people consider 11 GG's impressive. He was also the key player on two different WS Champs and a great clutch hitter.

[packs]

I have to ask if Hernandez is a HOFer do you think Mattingly is too? I love Mattingly like no one else but I don’t think he’s a HOFer by the numbers. He does however share many similar highlights with Hernandez. Mutual MVPs, a batting title, 9 gold gloves, 6 time all star, 3 time silver slugger. Similar counting stats aside from WAR.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by ejharrington

Madlock was a poor defender and Hernandez is generally regarded as the best defensive 1B to ever play. A lot of people consider 11 GG's impressive. He was also the key player on two different WS Champs and a great clutch hitter.

I think the only people who believe 1B defense is a hall worthy honor as Keith Hernandez fans. I have never heard this argument made for anyone else. Defense first catchers, shortstops and second basemen in the Hall are usually listed among the very worst electees. Perhaps I greatly underestimate the value of 1B defense.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by ejharrington

Madlock was a poor defender and Hernandez is generally regarded as the best defensive 1B to ever play. A lot of people consider 11 GG's impressive. He was also the key player on two different WS Champs and a great clutch hitter.

Its not just about defense, World Series with different teams, or being clutch. Its about peak. Hernandez won an MVP and came in the top 5 two other times. Madlock's peak was 6th in the voting.

And if you take two seconds to look beyond the slash line, you'd see that Madlock led the league in exactly 3 things--Batting Average, Double Plays hit into, and Hit by Pitch. Madlock was about as one dimensional a player as it gets. He hit a lot of singles.

Hernandez was a much more dynamic player (at or close to lead league in doubles, walks, etc), which in turn helped him be at or near the league lead in runs. Runs are important.