Hall of Fame Ballot Announced

ejharrington · #1 11-16-2022, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

Madlock is very similar offensively. .305/.365/.442/123 OPS+ is pretty close to .296/.384/.436/128+ at the same time in the same league. if Keith's batting title is a HOF credential, Madlock's 4 is a lot stronger.

I don't think more than a tiny minority of fans will consider 1B gold gloves to be much of a Hall argument.

Madlock was a poor defender and Hernandez is generally regarded as the best defensive 1B to ever play. A lot of people consider 11 GG's impressive. He was also the key player on two different WS Champs and a great clutch hitter.

packs · #2 11-16-2022, 10:58 AM

I have to ask if Hernandez is a HOFer do you think Mattingly is too? I love Mattingly like no one else but I don�t think he�s a HOFer by the numbers. He does however share many similar highlights with Hernandez. Mutual MVPs, a batting title, 9 gold gloves, 6 time all star, 3 time silver slugger. Similar counting stats aside from WAR.

G1911 · #3 11-16-2022, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ejharrington

Madlock was a poor defender and Hernandez is generally regarded as the best defensive 1B to ever play. A lot of people consider 11 GG's impressive. He was also the key player on two different WS Champs and a great clutch hitter.

I think the only people who believe 1B defense is a hall worthy honor as Keith Hernandez fans. I have never heard this argument made for anyone else. Defense first catchers, shortstops and second basemen in the Hall are usually listed among the very worst electees. Perhaps I greatly underestimate the value of 1B defense.

G1911 · #4 11-16-2022, 11:49 AM

The Black Sox rigged a World Series and destroyed the integrity of the game. Schilling retweeted a meme that has nothing to do with baseball whatsoever.

This is why the Hall should be based on reasonably objective criteria and not feelings.

Gorditadogg · #5 11-17-2022, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

The Black Sox rigged a World Series and destroyed the integrity of the game. Schilling retweeted a meme that has nothing to do with baseball whatsoever.

This is why the Hall should be based on reasonably objective criteria and not feelings.

You shouldn't get so emotional.

G1911 · #6 11-17-2022, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

You shouldn't get so emotional.

You should read the statement you are replying too.

cgjackson222 · #7 11-16-2022, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ejharrington

Madlock was a poor defender and Hernandez is generally regarded as the best defensive 1B to ever play. A lot of people consider 11 GG's impressive. He was also the key player on two different WS Champs and a great clutch hitter.

Its not just about defense, World Series with different teams, or being clutch. Its about peak. Hernandez won an MVP and came in the top 5 two other times. Madlock's peak was 6th in the voting.

And if you take two seconds to look beyond the slash line, you'd see that Madlock led the league in exactly 3 things--Batting Average, Double Plays hit into, and Hit by Pitch. Madlock was about as one dimensional a player as it gets. He hit a lot of singles.

Hernandez was a much more dynamic player (at or close to lead league in doubles, walks, etc), which in turn helped him be at or near the league lead in runs. Runs are important.

G1911 · #8 11-16-2022, 01:29 PM

Madlock and Hernandez have almost the same rate of doubles, homers, and runs. Madlock outslugged Hernandez by a few points for more TB per year. If these numbers make Madlock one dimensional at the plate, so was Hernandez. Madlock slightly wins in black ink, Hernandez wins grey ink by a wide margin (though neither is Hall territory). WAR suggests neither ever deserved an MVP. oWAR suggests Madlock was the better offensive player, 49.1 to 46.3. I am not sure I agree with that. Looking at their oWAR, their rates of counting stats per 162, their standard percentages BA/OBP/SLG they are very similar. Madlock grounded into 5 more double plays a year, but struck out a ton less. Both have a poor stealing record.

cgjackson222 · #9 11-16-2022, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

Madlock and Hernandez have almost the same rate of doubles, homers, and runs. Madlock outslugged Hernandez by a few points for more TB per year. If these numbers make Madlock one dimensional at the plate, so was Hernandez. Madlock slightly wins in black ink, Hernandez wins grey ink by a wide margin (though neither is Hall territory). WAR suggests neither ever deserved an MVP. oWAR suggests Madlock was the better offensive player, 49.1 to 46.3. I am not sure I agree with that. Looking at their oWAR, their rates of counting stats per 162, their standard percentages BA/OBP/SLG they are very similar. Madlock grounded into 5 more double plays a year, but struck out a ton less. Both have a poor stealing record.

Hernandez led the league in Doubles, had 3 other top 5 finishes, and had 7 top 10 finishes in the NL. Madlock's best was 5th, and also tied for 9th once.

Hernandez led the league in Runs twice and had another top 5 finish. Madlock's highest was 8th which was his only top 10 finish.

Hernandez' 7 year peak WAR was 41.2. Madlock's was 28.4

G1911 · #10 11-16-2022, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Hernandez led the league in Doubles, had 3 other top 5 finishes, and had 7 top 10 finishes in the NL. Madlock's best was 5th, and also tied for 9th once.

Hernandez led the league in Runs twice and had another top 5 finish. Madlock's highest was 8th which was his only top 10 finish.

Hernandez' 7 year peak WAR was 41.2. Madlock's was 28.4

Yes. That's why Hernandez has that big gap in grey ink. It is also a fact that their 162 game averages are very, very close in most things. We've covered almost all the traditional stats here, and they are close. They are very similar, in the same time. The data suggesting this is very strong.

If the argument is that Hernandez had the best season of either of them, I agree. The Hall is a career honor, and Keith's 13 black ink and 210th place are ink is not a credit though. That's a very, very difficult case to make, that his league lead finishes are hall worthy. A ton of other players would be worthy by it.

WAR likes Hernandez, even though it thinks Madlock was a better hitter. As I said, perhaps I underrate the value of 1B defense when 2B, SS, and C defense is not historically seen as a good Hall case. Look at their oWAR and you will see the massive value boosts from it. Keith gets 60.3, Madlock 38.2 even though Madlock gets more offensive WAR. WAR, the only metric by which Hernandez has a hall case, even thinks Madlock hit better. I have a hard time seeing seeing that massive gap ind defense value for a 1B, but I'm open to the argument that 1B defense is greatly underrated and actually does have such a huge outcome on winning.

darwinbulldog · #11 11-16-2022, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

I have a hard time seeing seeing that massive gap ind defense value for a 1B, but I'm open to the argument that 1B defense is greatly underrated and actually does have such a huge outcome on winning.

Clearly you haven't watched my daughter's little league softball games.

JollyElm · #12 11-16-2022, 03:49 PM

First base defense, you say? In a word...er...two words...Bill Buckner.

cgjackson222 · #13 11-16-2022, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

Yes. That's why Hernandez has that big gap in grey ink. It is also a fact that their 162 game averages are very, very close in most things. We've covered almost all the traditional stats here, and they are close. They are very similar, in the same time. The data suggesting this is very strong.

If the argument is that Hernandez had the best season of either of them, I agree. The Hall is a career honor, and Keith's 13 black ink and 210th place are ink is not a credit though. That's a very, very difficult case to make, that his league lead finishes are hall worthy. A ton of other players would be worthy by it.

WAR likes Hernandez, even though it thinks Madlock was a better hitter. As I said, perhaps I underrate the value of 1B defense when 2B, SS, and C defense is not historically seen as a good Hall case. Look at their oWAR and you will see the massive value boosts from it. Keith gets 60.3, Madlock 38.2 even though Madlock gets more offensive WAR. WAR, the only metric by which Hernandez has a hall case, even thinks Madlock hit better. I have a hard time seeing seeing that massive gap in defense value for a 1B, but I'm open to the argument that 1B defense is greatly underrated and actually does have such a huge outcome on winning.

You are just focusing on Hernandez' weaknesses (and I readily admit they exist) and not seeing the total body of work. Hernandez has a good WAR, a strong WAR7 and therefore a strong JAWS. He has a lot of awards--11 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers, 5x All Star and an MVP (and two other top 5 finishes). He was one of the best players on World Series teams in two different cities and had clutch postseason hits. He was arguably the best fielding first basemen ever. Some believe he revolutionized the position by taking away the bunt down the right field line (he was amazing at charging) and turning diving plays into 3-6-3 double plays.

And you are comparing him to Bill Madlock, someone whose only awards are 3x All Star and an All Star MVP? Madlock had no Gold Gloves, no silver sluggers and never had a top 5 MVP vote. His WAR, WAR7 and JAWS are weak. And because his career was shorter than Hernandez, Hernandez beats him in almost all counting stats.

You gotta come up with someone better than that.

You may not care about peak, 1st base Gold Gloves, or awards, but others do.

All I am saying is that Hernandez deserves another vote.

G1911 · #14 11-16-2022, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

You are just focusing on Hernandez' weaknesses (and I readily admit they exist) and not seeing the total body of work. Hernandez has a good WAR, a strong WAR7 and therefore a strong JAWS. He has a lot of awards--11 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers, 5x All Star and an MVP (and two other top 5 finishes). He was one of the best players on World Series teams in two different cities and had clutch postseason hits. He was arguably the best fielding first basemen ever. Some believe he revolutionized the position by taking away the bunt down the right field line (he was amazing at charging) and turning diving plays into 3-6-3 double plays.

And you are comparing him to Bill Madlock, someone whose only awards are 3x All Star and an All Star MVP? Madlock had no Gold Gloves, no silver sluggers and never had a top 5 MVP vote. His WAR, WAR7 and JAWS are weak. And because his career was shorter than Hernandez, Hernandez beats him in almost all counting stats.

You gotta come up with someone better than that.

You may not care about peak, 1st base Gold Gloves, or awards, but others do.

All I am saying is that Hernandez deserves another vote.

Yes, Hernandez was very good. No one is disputing that. 2 silver sluggers, repeated as a credential several times now, is not a hall credential. Neither is 1B gold gloves, for any other player. An MVP, a batting title, these are nice seasonal achievements. Again not a Hall marker themselves, and if they are, Madlock's 4 batting titles are looking pretty great. Again, his black ink is very, very low. His league leads are not Hall level. Third time, I am happy to see the argument that first base defense really is as consequential as WAR claims it is for Hernandez. I'm not seeing it.

It is a fact that his statistics are very, very similar to Bill Madlock, a 4 time batting champion. Despite his shorter career WAR, the primary argument for Hernandez, thinks he was in fact a better hitter. This is not an insult to Hernandez. It is difficult to dispute that they are statistically very similar. Somethings are opinion, like whether Hernandez should be inducted, but other things are difficult to deny. They are close statistically. I don't need to "come up with someone better than that" (the comparison came from someone else, also) because this statement of fact is true.

If one cares about league leads, awards, and peak, none of which I have actually, in fact, dismissed, Hernandez does not meet the threshold, as pointed earlier. Again, his black ink is 13. 5 all stars, 2 silver sluggers, an MVP. These are not Hall inductee award resumes. An MVP is nice, many MVP winners don't get in. 2 silver sluggers? I really don't get why that one is repeated as a credential, that should be brushed under the rug to make a case for Hernandez. 5 All-Stars is not impressive at all for a HOFer.

All I'm saying is that I do not see a career, math based argument for Hernandez. He has one stat going for him at a close to hall level, and that stat seems highly dubious. I doubt 1B defense, in a world where every defensive hall of famer except Ozzie Smith is heavily criticized, is a big Hall resume accomplishment. I am happy to be corrected if any argument for it could ever be made.

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