Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

BobC · #1 04-06-2023, 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Good question Jim. Honestly, I am not sure. My knee jerk reaction is that the REA 9 should negatively impact the Goldin one, but who knows - maybe people hold off on the REA one knowing they have a second bite on the Goldin one. In my experience, the second one usually goes for less than the first. That said, the cards I bid on are usually much rarer than a 55 Koufax, even in a 9, and they are less “commodity cards”, meaning a thinner overall audience. As a result, by eliminating the winner from the first one, there is usually less competition on the next one and it goes for less.

A great example of this is the t206 Speaker Drum. In May of 2021, Heritage auctioned off a PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum. I won it for $31,200. Three months later REA auctions another, arguably nicer, PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum and Luke stole it for $24,600! That is almost certainly because I was not a bidder, having already just “won” one. As an aside, I think there are only 3-5 Speaker Drums, compared to the 25+ psa 9/10 Koufax.

BTW- I am not a player for either Koufax.

Not to steal or hijack your thread, but maybe add on to your initial question? How do both cards fair in regard to your $345K over/under query, AND which AH's Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more, including the BP?

I had initially guessed the '55 Topps Koufax card being sold by Goldin would be under, and I'm going to guess REA's will be under as well. Now I initially want to guess REA's Koufax card will go for a higher amount than Goldin's, but I'm wondering if for a card of this value if the Goldin vault doesn't possibly impact the final sales price? Someone using Goldin's vault can absolutely escape sales tax, whereas an REA buyer may end up with a significant sales tax liability of tens of thousands of dollars, which I can only assume they may factor into what they end up bidding. So, I'll reluctantly guess the Goldin Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more.

And though I understand and agree with Ryan's thinking and logic regarding a second, later sale usually going for less, that mostly works best when you have exactly the same bidders in both auctions. I'm not so sure there may be serious bidders in only one or the other auction, but not in both, for whatever the reason(s).

raulus · #2 04-06-2023, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobC

Not to steal or hijack your thread, but maybe add on to your initial question? How do both cards fair in regard to your $345K over/under query, AND which AH's Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more, including the BP?

I had initially guessed the '55 Topps Koufax card being sold by Goldin would be under, and I'm going to guess REA's will be under as well. Now I initially want to guess REA's Koufax card will go for a higher amount than Goldin's, but I'm wondering if for a card of this value if the Goldin vault doesn't possibly impact the final sales price? Someone using Goldin's vault can absolutely escape sales tax, whereas an REA buyer may end up with a significant sales tax liability of tens of thousands of dollars, which I can only assume they may factor into what they end up bidding. So, I'll reluctantly guess the Goldin Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more.

Unless I’m completely barmy, I understand that a buyer on any platform can ship to most any vault, and with most (all?) of the vaults being located in no sales tax states, a buyer of the REA piece could enjoy similar sales tax treatment that a buyer enjoys when buying from Goldin with a straight deposit into the captive Goldin/CU vault.

Ergo, anyone looking to save by using a vault should be able to do so even when buying on platforms that don’t have an integrated vault.

Having said that, my preference is for all y’all to have to pay sales tax, so that I can benefit from the inherent bidding advantage that comes with living in a state with no sales tax.

BobC · #3 04-06-2023, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

Unless I�m completely barmy, I understand that a buyer on any platform can ship to most any vault, and with most (all?) of the vaults being located in no sales tax states, a buyer of the REA piece could enjoy similar sales tax treatment that a buyer enjoys when buying from Goldin with a straight deposit into the captive Goldin/CU vault.

Ergo, anyone looking to save by using a vault should be able to do so even when buying on platforms that don�t have an integrated vault.

Exactly right, and totally agree. But, I'm also thinking in terms of there maybe being some bidders who prefer to only bid with Goldin, and vice versa. And I'm going further out on a limb and guessing a Goldin fan/bidder is more likely to use Goldin's vault than an REA fan/bidder is likely to use any vault. Other than that, no real rationale, just mostly pure guessing.

raulus · #4 04-06-2023, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobC

Exactly right, and totally agree. But, I'm also thinking in terms of there maybe being some bidders who prefer to only bid with Goldin, and vice versa. And I'm going further out on a limb and guessing a Goldin fan/bidder is more likely to use Goldin's vault than an REA fan/bidder is likely to use any vault. Other than that, no real rationale, just mostly pure guessing.

You could be right. Obviously the integrated auction houses cum vault operators hope that the convenience of their integrated operation makes their vault much more attractive to potential users.

And I suspect you’re right that the user base may vary a bit between these two AHs, although I also suspect the profile of buyers at the 6-figure level between these two platforms varies less.

And with a 5-figure sales tax bill in the offing, I suspect a vault might seem less odious to the purchaser.

Casey2296 · #5 04-06-2023, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobC

Exactly right, and totally agree. But, I'm also thinking in terms of there maybe being some bidders who prefer to only bid with Goldin, and vice versa. And I'm going further out on a limb and guessing a Goldin fan/bidder is more likely to use Goldin's vault than an REA fan/bidder is likely to use any vault. Other than that, no real rationale, just mostly pure guessing.

There's no greater disparity of an approach to business than there is between Brian and Goldin, some people identify with Brian's approach some people identify with Goldins approach, when it comes to pre war I think Brian's approach resonates with more folks.

raulus · #6 04-07-2023, 10:22 AM

But after almost 1 whole day of bidding, the REA version is up to $210 (with the juice).

Naturally, most of these auctions tend to see a lot of action early, as we all get our initial bids in. Usually followed by a lull as we all try to assess what we really want, and how high we're willing to go to get it.

And then during the last couple of days the bidding goes nuts again as one by one the earlier bidders drop out until the winner stands alone atop the mountain.

Of course, sometimes we get that last part out of the way a little earlier, as a couple of bidders will decide to go nuts early on until one of them gets exhausted and finally gives up. By that point the price is so astronomically high that no one else will touch it, so it doesn't move again, and goes final a few weeks later at that price.

Goldin opens later tonight, so we'll see how quickly it shoots up.

Touch'EmAll · #7 04-07-2023, 11:32 AM

Article from today, interesting read. I would imagine nice vintage and pre-war cards to fall into this same category (as art).

Diversify with fine art
The younger generation of investors increasingly believes that �a traditional portfolio of stock and bonds is not going to deliver above-average returns over time,� according to Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank.

Fine art is the perfect alternative investment for savvy and high net worth investors who are looking to diversify their portfolio. It�s notably consistent, as contemporary art has outperformed the S&P 500 by 131% for the past 26 years.

Previously, there was no way to invest unless you had millions to buy an entire painting. But Masterworks has completely changed that. Instead of buying a single painting for millions of dollars, you can now invest in shares of individual works.

With this revolutionary investment platform, all you have to do is select which shares you want to buy and Masterworks will handle the rest.

Johnny630 · #8 04-07-2023, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

Article from today, interesting read. I would imagine nice vintage and pre-war cards to fall into this same category (as art).

Diversify with fine art
The younger generation of investors increasingly believes that “a traditional portfolio of stock and bonds is not going to deliver above-average returns over time,” according to Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank.

Fine art is the perfect alternative investment for savvy and high net worth investors who are looking to diversify their portfolio. It’s notably consistent, as contemporary art has outperformed the S&P 500 by 131% for the past 26 years.

Previously, there was no way to invest unless you had millions to buy an entire painting. But Masterworks has completely changed that. Instead of buying a single painting for millions of dollars, you can now invest in shares of individual works.

With this revolutionary investment platform, all you have to do is select which shares you want to buy and Masterworks will handle the rest.

When it comes to investing I like to follow many of the Buffet/Munger ways. I’ve never heard them interested in hard assets such as Gold or Art. They despise crypto, as do I. I wonder if they agree with what your first quoted comment, that traditional portfolio of stock and bonds is not going to deliver above-average returns over time,” according to Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank. Somehow I think they’d rather invest in Farmland instead of non-wealth producing assets.

BobC · #9 04-07-2023, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

Article from today, interesting read. I would imagine nice vintage and pre-war cards to fall into this same category (as art).

Diversify with fine art
The younger generation of investors increasingly believes that �a traditional portfolio of stock and bonds is not going to deliver above-average returns over time,� according to Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank.

Fine art is the perfect alternative investment for savvy and high net worth investors who are looking to diversify their portfolio. It�s notably consistent, as contemporary art has outperformed the S&P 500 by 131% for the past 26 years.

Previously, there was no way to invest unless you had millions to buy an entire painting. But Masterworks has completely changed that. Instead of buying a single painting for millions of dollars, you can now invest in shares of individual works.

With this revolutionary investment platform, all you have to do is select which shares you want to buy and Masterworks will handle the rest.

Not really unexpected that for investments of this type things would start to go this way, is it? And in relation to earlier comments made about differences in business practices and strategies between the likes of REA and Goldin, which of the two could any of you see as more likely to also start doing something similar for their customer base, offering to buy and hold a major collectible item that no one can really afford to ever buy themselves, and then offering to sell partial interests in it to the general public?

For a T206 collector that could never afford one of the "Big Four" cards themselves, this could at least be a way for them to buy a partial interest in say a T206 Wagner, and afford them some level of ownership. It isn't perfect, and certainly not what most any true collector would really want. But in the world of reality where there are only an extremely limited number of T206 Wagner cards that exist, and at prices that are beyond most every collector's ability to ever afford, that may be the only way such a collector could ever theoretically own a complete T206 set.

I keep hearing and seeing things about Goldin's 100 greatest collectible cards, or something along those lines they are working on, and soon to come out with. For the average collector, or a new, younger collector just starting out in the hobby, how many of those 100 greatest collectible cards do you think any of them may be able to afford? But what if someone like Goldin actually goes out and acquires one of every one of those 100 cards, and then offers collectors the chance to buy an interest in the ownership of the entire collection? You can easily go and buy and sell shares in things like an S&P 500 index fund, why not something like a 100 greatest cards collectible fund? At this recently ended Mint Collective convention out in Las Vegas, I can most definitely see that being a very possible, and viable, topic being discussed among members of the collecting industry.

And before any of you start shaking your heads and muttering that that will never happen and so on, how many of you can remember back to when you could go to the corner store to pick up some bread or milk, and you would also be able to grab a pack of baseball cards at the register as you were checking out? Would any of you back then, in your wildest dreams, have ever imagined things like Breakers and the card market/industry like it is today with the wild and astronomical prices we're seeing, or the idea of TPGs, the internet and Ebay, and on and on? Even mentioning the fact that baseball cards could ever possibly be thought of as actual legitimate investments one day would have gotten you laughed at by most everyone. Just go ask all those old collectors with their boxes of Gregg Jeffries rookie cards they're still waiting to be able to retire on. Baseball is one of those unique things that is permanently embedded in the fabric of American life, that crosses and embraces all generations, and is growing more and more on the international market as well. Soccer may be the current biggest international sport, but baseball seems to be rising and growing. like basketball has. And unlike soccer, baseball was invented and started in the U.S., so we have an even more intrinsic desire and affection for the sport, and their related collectibles, cards, and history. So, does anyone really think there wouldn't be an extremely viable, potential market for people to buy into such an idea as owning a piece of the 100 greatest baseball cards of all time. And how many times have I seen/read on this forum, people telling/advising others to look to buy the nicest condition cards, of the greatest players, from the most widely collected sets they can, if they want to have the best possible chance to grow the value of their collections? And now how many of these 100 greatest cards that Golding is supposedly coming out with do you think will exactly fit that investment advisory advice and goals?

And such an idea would likely appeal to an even larger part of the population that wouldn't normally think of collecting baseball cards at all. Now you've got people investing in the idea of Americana, Mom, and apple pie, along with potentially making a buck or two down the road...........

oldjudge · #10 04-07-2023, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

Article from today, interesting read. I would imagine nice vintage and pre-war cards to fall into this same category (as art).

Diversify with fine art
The younger generation of investors increasingly believes that �a traditional portfolio of stock and bonds is not going to deliver above-average returns over time,� according to Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank.

Fine art is the perfect alternative investment for savvy and high net worth investors who are looking to diversify their portfolio. It�s notably consistent, as contemporary art has outperformed the S&P 500 by 131% for the past 26 years.

Previously, there was no way to invest unless you had millions to buy an entire painting. But Masterworks has completely changed that. Instead of buying a single painting for millions of dollars, you can now invest in shares of individual works.

With this revolutionary investment platform, all you have to do is select which shares you want to buy and Masterworks will handle the rest.

At what cost? My sense with baseball cards is that you pay a substantial premium and that you never can physically have the card. To me, fractional ownership seems like a great deal for the organizer and a bad deal for the investor.

BobC · #11 04-07-2023, 04:03 PM

Here's an interesting interview with Bryan Dwyer on NASDAQ Trade Talks, talking about the memorabilia side of the collecting industry, but I think, most all of what he says would apply to the card side as well. So even though many people think of REA as maybe more "collector" oriented, they recognize the investor and investment aspect as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnpGlMWlrOw

BobC · #12 04-07-2023, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Casey2296

There's no greater disparity of an approach to business than there is between Brian and Goldin, some people identify with Brian's approach some people identify with Goldins approach, when it comes to pre war I think Brian's approach resonates with more folks.

Exactly why I was saying what I was. There are many people I've heard exclaim they'll never do business with the likes of some sellers/AHs. Also, some business formats/platforms are set up more for the investor types than the true collector types as well. I would classify Goldin as playing more to the investor type, and REA to the collector type. Nothing wrong with either, but the investor type IMO would be much more likely to take advantage of a vault service.

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