Value of Willie Mays cards - already peaked? Or more room at the top?

jsfriedm · #1 04-25-2023, 07:48 AM

This may not help much, because I can't say how high the bump will be or how lasting it will be. But my suspicion is, when Mays passes (and I hope not for a while), that there will be a tremendous amount of attention paid to it around baseball. I think they will introduce some kind of Willie Mays Award, there might be a push to retire 24 around baseball, and most importantly, I think there will be a move to sort of canonize him as the Greatest of All-Time. Baseball doesn't quite have its Gretzky, Jordan, or Brady, and while most would say Babe Ruth, the problem is that now that they have declared the Negro Leagues to be Major Leagues, it is problematic to have a GOAT who played segregated baseball. So Willie Mays seems like a logical choice for many reasons. I think future generations of baseball fans will hear much more about Willie Mays than Mickey Mantle because of this.

Seven · #2 04-25-2023, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

This may not help much, because I can't say how high the bump will be or how lasting it will be. But my suspicion is, when Mays passes (and I hope not for a while), that there will be a tremendous amount of attention paid to it around baseball. I think they will introduce some kind of Willie Mays Award, there might be a push to retire 24 around baseball, and most importantly, I think there will be a move to sort of canonize him as the Greatest of All-Time. Baseball doesn't quite have its Gretzky, Jordan, or Brady, and while most would say Babe Ruth, the problem is that now that they have declared the Negro Leagues to be Major Leagues, it is problematic to have a GOAT who played segregated baseball. So Willie Mays seems like a logical choice for many reasons. I think future generations of baseball fans will hear much more about Willie Mays than Mickey Mantle because of this.

I hesitate to say it, but I would agree for the most part. I think we've seen a stabilization of Post-War vintage, for now, at least until the next shoe drops. I hate to talk about the potential of one of the all time greats of the game passing away, especially because at the end of the day, he's a person.

I think baseball, for the most part, truly functions without having the "Greatest of All Time" debate, constantly. Too many different eras and changes, history is also greatly ingrained within the game. Fans of the Negro Leagues, Cuban Leagues, etc do not represent the majority. Takes someone with a passion for the history of our game to really get involved with that aspect of the games past.

However, I hope concerning your last point, you are correct, as it will make it a little bit easier to finish up my Mantle run, if that becomes the case!

Snapolit1 · #3 04-25-2023, 08:20 AM

There will be tremendous media attenion and accolades when Mays passes. One of the ultimate icons in the sport. Having said that, his cards have run up a ton and I'd be real surprised if a lot of people wake up the next day and decide for the first time that they want to spend $50,000 on a Mays card.

Republicaninmass · #4 04-25-2023, 08:53 AM

I thought for years when Berra passed his cards would jump. It took covid to get any such movement in price on his cards. He is one of the single most underrated players. Might be since he was known for being a clown, but his prowess is right up there with some of the best.

Mays, has really taken off post covid. Maybe some of his signed cards might jump, but he hasnt signed since early 2010s I believe. That being said I would think a slight bump, then the sellers come out in droves, and there is a plateau. I really cant see anyone not knowing who Mays was, and all of a sudden needs a 10k card of his

Belfast1933 · #5 04-25-2023, 09:17 AM

This is all very helpful - thx all� I am less interested in buy/sell after a run up in value as I am to not have to spend up considerably later if I choose to add a nice early Mays, like his 51 Bowman.

raulus · #6 04-25-2023, 09:44 AM

Predicting prices, especially in the short run, is a fool’s errand. Not that any of us are any better over the long term…

Having said that, my sense is that when Hammerin’ Hank left us, everyone looked around and realized that Willie was the oldest living HOFer, and as such it was just a matter of time. While prices since the pandemic are more broadly up ~300%, a lot of the Mays pieces are up 500%+, and in some cases more like 1000%. As such, I suspect that some or all of the action is already priced in.

At the same time, betting against increases in future prices for Mays has been a seriously losing bet for some time now. So the current elevated prices could get even more extreme when the end for Willie actually arrives.

Here’s hoping he still has a few more decades left in the tank.

Snapolit1 · #7 04-25-2023, 10:42 AM

If Willie makes it a few more decades he will be know for a lot more than just baseball.

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

Predicting prices, especially in the short run, is a fool�s errand. Not that any of us are any better over the long term�

Having said that, my sense is that when Hammerin� Hank left us, everyone looked around and realized that Willie was the oldest living HOFer, and as such it was just a matter of time. While prices since the pandemic are more broadly up ~300%, a lot of the Mays pieces are up 500%+, and in some cases more like 1000%. As such, I suspect that some or all of the action is already priced in.

At the same time, betting against increases in future prices for Mays has been a seriously losing bet for some time now. So the current elevated prices could get even more extreme when the end for Willie actually arrives.

Here�s hoping he still has a few more decades left in the tank.

Fuddjcal · #8 04-27-2023, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Belfast1933

This is all very helpful - thx all� I am less interested in buy/sell after a run up in value as I am to not have to spend up considerably later if I choose to add a nice early Mays, like his 51 Bowman.

I feel a card like this is much like your dream home. Can you afford a 30% down payment in the house and area you'd like to live in forever. Can you pay it off in 15 years or less?

Can you afford a card like that without taking away from retirement, kids education, monthly expenses, 10% saved for home repairs annually? is your home paid off? Do you have at least 24 months FU fund in cash? Ifsofatso, now your ready to buy the card at whatever the price. It really won't matter if it's for your collection if you find the card you'll love.

Unless you like to shoot from the hip, gamble with your families future or flip it, LOL.

But seriously, get the card when it's right for you...and then don't look back. GOOD LUCK!

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