Value of Willie Mays cards - already peaked? Or more room at the top?

[Belfast1933]

This is all very helpful - thx all… I am less interested in buy/sell after a run up in value as I am to not have to spend up considerably later if I choose to add a nice early Mays, like his 51 Bowman.

[raulus]

Predicting prices, especially in the short run, is a fool’s errand. Not that any of us are any better over the long term…

Having said that, my sense is that when Hammerin’ Hank left us, everyone looked around and realized that Willie was the oldest living HOFer, and as such it was just a matter of time. While prices since the pandemic are more broadly up ~300%, a lot of the Mays pieces are up 500%+, and in some cases more like 1000%. As such, I suspect that some or all of the action is already priced in.

At the same time, betting against increases in future prices for Mays has been a seriously losing bet for some time now. So the current elevated prices could get even more extreme when the end for Willie actually arrives.

Here’s hoping he still has a few more decades left in the tank.

[Snapolit1]

If Willie makes it a few more decades he will be know for a lot more than just baseball.

Originally Posted by raulus

Predicting prices, especially in the short run, is a fool’s errand. Not that any of us are any better over the long term…

Having said that, my sense is that when Hammerin’ Hank left us, everyone looked around and realized that Willie was the oldest living HOFer, and as such it was just a matter of time. While prices since the pandemic are more broadly up ~300%, a lot of the Mays pieces are up 500%+, and in some cases more like 1000%. As such, I suspect that some or all of the action is already priced in.

At the same time, betting against increases in future prices for Mays has been a seriously losing bet for some time now. So the current elevated prices could get even more extreme when the end for Willie actually arrives.

Here’s hoping he still has a few more decades left in the tank.

[Peter_Spaeth]

IMO if you want a Mays card buy it when the right one comes along that speaks to you. Stop overanalyzing this and other purchases.

[darwinbulldog]

For the most part I'd say it's already baked in. Maybe there's a bit of a bump in prices for like a month or so but probably more for his later cards than for his rookie card. I do agree in the long run (say 25 years from now) that Mays will catch up to or move ahead of Mantle prices as I expect the people who have an interest in collecting vintage baseball cards then will be disproportionately sabermetricians, and I think those folks all pretty much agree that Mays was the better player. Whether those 2048 prices will be higher than 2023 prices I have no idea. I expect I'll be out of the hobby by then.

[ALBB]

yes, in a few decades Mays would be ...Oh...about 133 yr old

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by ALBB

yes, in a few decades Mays would be ...Oh...about 133 yr old

Hey, don't underestimate the power of diet pills and exercise.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

IMO if you want a Mays card buy it when the right one comes along that speaks to you. Stop overanalyzing this and other purchases.

This.

If you have the money set aside and the card speaks to you and you are going to have it for a good long time, the rest is academic.

And a card...

[G1911]

This is my favorite Willie Mays item. It has been appraised at $0.

My family loved Willie Mays; my mom's dad owned a jewelry store in the Bay Area that served many of the Giants players families and Willie gave my mother a personalized signed photo when she was a little girl, which still hangs on her living room wall 50 something years later. Willie was as cool as baseball history got in our house. When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal. And so when Halloween rolled around, I told my Dad I wanted to go as Willie Mays 1966 card. Not Willie Mays, but Willie Mays' baseball card specifically. And so my Dad, who is no artist, did the best he could and made this with two pieces of sandwich board. Simplified the back cartoon and cut off the hometown and copyright lines, but everything else is as good as we could make it. ~7 year old me got to run around with this and a sugar high. I was happy. Dad was probably happy he didn't have to do this again and could stop trying to draw. I wore it like 3 halloweens in a row without any sense of shame. I don't think anyone in town got it except the guy who ran the local comic book/card store.

[ALBB]

Now that's a cool old story !!

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is my favorite Willie Mays item. It has been appraised at $0.

My family loved Willie Mays; my mom's dad owned a jewelry store in the Bay Area that served many of the Giants players families and Willie gave my mother a personalized signed photo when she was a little girl, which still hangs on her living room wall 50 something years later. Willie was as cool as baseball history got in our house. When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal. And so when Halloween rolled around, I told my Dad I wanted to go as Willie Mays 1966 card. Not Willie Mays, but Willie Mays' baseball card specifically. And so my Dad, who is no artist, did the best he could and made this with two pieces of sandwich board. Simplified the back cartoon and cut off the hometown and copyright lines, but everything else is as good as we could make it. ~7 year old me got to run around with this and a sugar high. I was happy. Dad was probably happy he didn't have to do this again and could stop trying to draw. I wore it like 3 halloweens in a row without any sense of shame. I don't think anyone in town got it except the guy who ran the local comic book/card store.

Best

Dad

Ever!

[conor912]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is my favorite Willie Mays item. It has been appraised at $0.

My family loved Willie Mays; my mom's dad owned a jewelry store in the Bay Area that served many of the Giants players families and Willie gave my mother a personalized signed photo when she was a little girl, which still hangs on her living room wall 50 something years later. Willie was as cool as baseball history got in our house. When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal. And so when Halloween rolled around, I told my Dad I wanted to go as Willie Mays 1966 card. Not Willie Mays, but Willie Mays' baseball card specifically. And so my Dad, who is no artist, did the best he could and made this with two pieces of sandwich board. Simplified the back cartoon and cut off the hometown and copyright lines, but everything else is as good as we could make it. ~7 year old me got to run around with this and a sugar high. I was happy. Dad was probably happy he didn't have to do this again and could stop trying to draw. I wore it like 3 halloweens in a row without any sense of shame. I don't think anyone in town got it except the guy who ran the local comic book/card store.

This is what it’s all about. Incredible!

[JustinD]

Your dad is one hell of a good guy.

This statement below made me realize how young you are though and I now am having an existential 'old man' moment, lol

Originally Posted by G1911

When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal.

[MR RAREBACK]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is my favorite Willie Mays item. It has been appraised at $0.

My family loved Willie Mays; my mom's dad owned a jewelry store in the Bay Area that served many of the Giants players families and Willie gave my mother a personalized signed photo when she was a little girl, which still hangs on her living room wall 50 something years later. Willie was as cool as baseball history got in our house. When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal. And so when Halloween rolled around, I told my Dad I wanted to go as Willie Mays 1966 card. Not Willie Mays, but Willie Mays' baseball card specifically. And so my Dad, who is no artist, did the best he could and made this with two pieces of sandwich board. Simplified the back cartoon and cut off the hometown and copyright lines, but everything else is as good as we could make it. ~7 year old me got to run around with this and a sugar high. I was happy. Dad was probably happy he didn't have to do this again and could stop trying to draw. I wore it like 3 halloweens in a row without any sense of shame. I don't think anyone in town got it except the guy who ran the local comic book/card store.

Awesome

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is my favorite Willie Mays item. It has been appraised at $0.

My family loved Willie Mays; my mom's dad owned a jewelry store in the Bay Area that served many of the Giants players families and Willie gave my mother a personalized signed photo when she was a little girl, which still hangs on her living room wall 50 something years later. Willie was as cool as baseball history got in our house. When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal. And so when Halloween rolled around, I told my Dad I wanted to go as Willie Mays 1966 card. Not Willie Mays, but Willie Mays' baseball card specifically. And so my Dad, who is no artist, did the best he could and made this with two pieces of sandwich board. Simplified the back cartoon and cut off the hometown and copyright lines, but everything else is as good as we could make it. ~7 year old me got to run around with this and a sugar high. I was happy. Dad was probably happy he didn't have to do this again and could stop trying to draw. I wore it like 3 halloweens in a row without any sense of shame. I don't think anyone in town got it except the guy who ran the local comic book/card store.

Amazing you still have it! It's beautiful and so is the story. Thanks for sharing.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Belfast1933

This is all very helpful - thx all… I am less interested in buy/sell after a run up in value as I am to not have to spend up considerably later if I choose to add a nice early Mays, like his 51 Bowman.

I feel a card like this is much like your dream home. Can you afford a 30% down payment in the house and area you'd like to live in forever. Can you pay it off in 15 years or less?

Can you afford a card like that without taking away from retirement, kids education, monthly expenses, 10% saved for home repairs annually? is your home paid off? Do you have at least 24 months FU fund in cash? Ifsofatso, now your ready to buy the card at whatever the price. It really won't matter if it's for your collection if you find the card you'll love.

Unless you like to shoot from the hip, gamble with your families future or flip it, LOL.

But seriously, get the card when it's right for you...and then don't look back. GOOD LUCK!