How many fake autographs out there?

[Hankphenom]

To state the obvious, wherever there is money to be made, fraudsters will come in to try to make it. That's a universal principle, so I don't know why it should come as any surprise in this hobby. And I would think that fact might make collectors, especially those who don't have the time or interest to become experts themselves in such a broad collecting universe, to have a fairly profound appreciation for the TPAs, who, at least the big boys, have shown themselves to be pretty darn good over the years. So instead of being in the wild west of several decades ago, an intelligent autograph collector these days has the option, for a relatively small fee compared to the value of these things, of having a serious expert, who has devoted his career to their study, of passing judgement. OK, so anyone with a collection in the thousands, or even hundreds, has stories of TPA error one way or the other--passed bad ones or rejected ones signed in person--but what do you suppose the percentage is of those mistakes compared to the ones they get right. Would you accept that % in one of YOUR employees? I think so. Instead of vilification, maybe they should get a little more love for making this expensive hobby/investment safe to indulge in, knowing there won't be any nasty surprises when it's time for you or your heirs to sell. Just my two cents.

[homerunhitter]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

To state the obvious, wherever there is money to be made, fraudsters will come in to try to make it. That's a universal principle, so I don't know why it should come as any surprise in this hobby. And I would think that fact might make collectors, especially those who don't have the time or interest to become experts themselves in such a broad collecting universe, to have a fairly profound appreciation for the TPAs, who, at least the big boys, have shown themselves to be pretty darn good over the years. So instead of being in the wild west of several decades ago, an intelligent autograph collector these days has the option, for a relatively small fee compared to the value of these things, of having a serious expert, who has devoted his career to their study, of passing judgement. OK, so anyone with a collection in the thousands, or even hundreds, has stories of TPA error one way or the other--passed bad ones or rejected ones signed in person--but what do you suppose the percentage is of those mistakes compared to the ones they get right. Would you accept that % in one of YOUR employees? I think so. Instead of vilification, maybe they should get a little more love for making this expensive hobby/investment safe to indulge in, knowing there won't be any nasty surprises when it's time for you or your heirs to sell. Just my two cents.

Hank,
very well said and spot on! I agree with you my friend. I was starting to learn toward just collecting signed canceled checks of HOFers. My rational was that signed checks should be as close to an authentic signed piece as one can get then....I started to research it and the more I looked into it, I read somewhere on here that these scammers are now using high dollar laser printers to make/print signed checks that look so real and look so authentic that most people (including TPAs) could not tell the difference. so back to the drawing board! I think now ill just collect factory pack pulled autographs! because as we can see there are forgeries in EVERYTHING we collect but I think a topps certified autograph is likely more authentic than a PSA slabbed autograph. just my 2 cents worth!

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Hank,
very well said and spot on! I agree with you my friend. I was starting to learn toward just collecting signed canceled checks of HOFers. My rational was that signed checks should be as close to an authentic signed piece as one can get then....I started to research it and the more I looked into it, I read somewhere on here that these scammers are now using high dollar laser printers to make/print signed checks that look so real and look so authentic that most people (including TPAs) could not tell the difference. so back to the drawing board! I think now ill just collect factory pack pulled autographs! because as we can see there are forgeries in EVERYTHING we collect but I think a topps certified autograph is likely more authentic than a PSA slabbed autograph. just my 2 cents worth!

To each his own, but I'd guess the error rate on PSA or other major TPA autographs to be miniscule, and I mean practically infinitesimal compared to the volume of pieces they look at--I don't know, 1/10,000, 1/100,000, 1/million, you take your own wild guess. And even the few bad ones in a major TPA slab will always be regarded as good by the marketplace. So I'm not sure what makes you so afraid of them, but just imagine if they didn't exist!

[homerunhitter]

hank,
im not afraid one bit. my personal belief is that a topps or upper deck factory certified autograph is much more likely to be authentic than an autograph authenticated by some summer college hire thats 19 years old working for PSA, Beckett or JSA. Ive heard horror stories of how many of the people at these TPAs that are authenticating are like 20-24 years old. just young kids, what do they know about authenticating at that age? at that age they still have skid marks in their underwear, they shouldnt be authenticating nothing! dont get me wrong, im sure TPAs have great authenticators, but those big names im sure arent looking at the majority of the daily work load if what im reading on the internet and seen on message boards is right. but then again, thats just my personal opinion that factory certified autographs would seem to appear to be more authentic than most tpas. but then again like tpas, its just an opinion and you know how the saying goes, opinions are like buttholes, everyone has one! but some stink more than others! (opinions that is!)

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

hank,
im not afraid one bit. my personal belief is that a topps or upper deck factory certified autograph is much more likely to be authentic than an autograph authenticated by some summer college hire thats 19 years old working for PSA, Beckett or JSA. Ive heard horror stories of how many of the people at these TPAs that are authenticating are like 20-24 years old. just young kids, what do they know about authenticating at that age? at that age they still have skid marks in their underwear, they shouldnt be authenticating nothing! dont get me wrong, im sure TPAs have great authenticators, but those big names im sure arent looking at the majority of the daily work load if what im reading on the internet and seen on message boards is right. but then again, thats just my personal opinion that factory certified autographs would seem to appear to be more authentic than most tpas. but then again like tpas, its just an opinion and you know how the saying goes, opinions are like buttholes, everyone has one! but some stink more than others! (opinions that is!)

I'd guess the internal workings of the big TPAs are considerably tighter than you describe, but I don't want to start sounding like a shill for them. Neither should you want to start coming across as a troll against them, though, I wouldn't think. In general, I believe the marketplace has given them pretty good marks. And if you are restricting your collecting to "Topps factory certified"--whatever that is--you are consigning yourself to a much narrower focus than most vintage sports autographs collectors would enjoy. But, as always, to each his own.

[homerunhitter]

Hank,
I don’t have anything wrong or against TPAs, I’m fact, I have a Ton of PSA slabs in my collection (and some Beckett, JSA and SGC) I buy them all the time however I “prefer” factory certified autographs if given the choice between the two. But like you said , I don’t limit or narrow my collecting tastes as there are some cards I like signed that are not Factory certified, so I collect them all, I just “prefer” factory certified items if given the option.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Hank,
I don’t have anything wrong or against TPAs, I’m fact, I have a Ton of PSA slabs in my collection (and some Beckett, JSA and SGC) I buy them all the time however I “prefer” factory certified autographs if given the choice between the two. But like you said , I don’t limit or narrow my collecting tastes as there are some cards I like signed that are not Factory certified, so I collect them all, I just “prefer” factory certified items if given the option.

Cool. Betraying my ignorance here, I know, but what does factory certified mean? Is that a new thing?

[Duluth Eskimo]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

To each his own, but I'd guess the error rate on PSA or other major TPA autographs to be miniscule, and I mean practically infinitesimal compared to the volume of pieces they look at--I don't know, 1/10,000, 1/100,000, 1/million, you take your own wild guess. And even the few bad ones in a major TPA slab will always be regarded as good by the marketplace. So I'm not sure what makes you so afraid of them, but just imagine if they didn't exist!

This is a ridiculous statement. One in 10,000 to one in a million? Are you kidding me. They make mistakes on every large order that goes to them. You’re making these statements because you’re friends with Kevin Keating. You have said so in the past many times. They are failing items at a ridiculous rate in the past couple of years. Anyone who is doing business sees this every order.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Duluth Eskimo

This is a ridiculous statement. One in 10,000 to one in a million? Are you kidding me. They make mistakes on every large order that goes to them. You’re making these statements because you’re friends with Kevin Keating. You have said so in the past many times. They are failing items at a ridiculous rate in the past couple of years. Anyone who is doing business sees this every order.

Yes, I've made no secret of my friendship with Kevin and admiration for his skills, and perhaps I've exaggerated the big-TPA error rate, but what would you put it at? To say there's errors in every large order seems an exaggeration to me, and how do you know? To say that, you must be better than they are, which I seriously doubt. My point is that their error rate is probably about the same as yours at whatever line of work you're in, so stop whining and admit that, overall, the advent of the respected TPAs has been a major step forward for the autograph hobby.

[Duluth Eskimo]

I never said Kevin was not knowledgeable or very skilled in his work, I said the error rate. They kick stuff all the time that is good. One example, they are currently kicking all kinds of Kirby Puckett items because they learned a bunch of stuff that wasn’t good made it through the process. So is it right to kick back multiple items because they were burnt in the past? No, it’s not. There are many many other examples just like this.

No one here ever said Bill or Kevin weren’t great at what they do, they said they are taking peoples money and kicking back items that are good. Apparently that business model is ok with you.

Every person who submits larger quantities knows this. They don’t care because they (PSA) are keeping peoples money and they don’t allow push back. Just like you don’t allow push back.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Duluth Eskimo

Just like you don’t allow push back.

But I don't mind pushback at all, I've been a pusherback all my life. It's just that I am old enough to remember the "wild west" days of the hobby, and I don't think anybody wants to go back to that. You used the word "ridiculous" twice in pushing back on my support of the TPAs, so I guess I'm pushing back on you a bit for that, but you didn't answer my question: of the total universe of submissions to PSA, as an example, what % do you think they get wrong? And wouldn't you rather they be too strict in their opinions--which can't be great for their business other than solidifying their reputation--than too lax? I really don't want to come off as a shill for the TPAs, but setting up at shows with Kevin for a dozen years taught me a lot about the autograph hobby, and I just think that it's better now with them than it was before without them. That shouldn't exempt them from criticism, however, and I shouldn't have called that whining, that was wrong on my part. Everybody's feet should be held to the fire in whatever they do, it's a better world that way.