Real curious to see National reports

[rjackson44]

Steve just go on you tube there will be millions of videos one after another ,,read %??

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Steve just go on you tube there will be millions of videos one after another ,,read %??

That there are and even Instagram has lots of recaps and analysis in short segments.

I am more interested to see our peers that are going to National and those selling to let us know
1. how were the crowd sizes and how many kids there(especially with their card carriers)
2. How many Vintage vs Modern tables
3. How the sales and trades were
4. How the prices were fetching at National vs Auctions
5. How much fun they had at the Net54 Get together

[sb1]

Just the market resetting to show value of true scarcity of older cards versus modern man made "rarity". I predict high demand nice quality pre-war cards will do better than ever at the National and moving forward.

[the-illini]

Originally Posted by sb1

Just the market resetting to show value of true scarcity of older cards versus modern man made "rarity". I predict high demand nice quality pre-war cards will do better than ever at the National and moving forward.

This. If you have good stuff you’re going to make money.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by the-illini

This. If you have good stuff you’re going to make money.

I’m still pissed I paid $500,000 for that Jasson Dominguez cracked ice red refractor.

[Kzoo]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I’m still pissed I paid $500,000 for that Jasson Dominguez cracked ice red refractor.

Thank God I was the under bidder.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by sb1

Just the market resetting to show value of true scarcity of older cards versus modern man made "rarity". I predict high demand nice quality pre-war cards will do better than ever at the National and moving forward.

Agree 100% with this.

[Hankphenom]

It will be fascinating to see how the reality stacks up with these pretty much consensus predictions. If the bubble has truly burst on modern, the room, including tables, should be full of 20 and 30 somethings desperately looking to dump as much as they can before the music stops altogether.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

It will be fascinating to see how the reality stacks up with these pretty much consensus predictions. If the bubble has truly burst on modern, the room, including tables, should be full of 20 and 30 somethings desperately looking to dump as much as they can before the music stops altogether.

Musical chairs to me too. I have never undestood the super high prices of the newer cards. There are hundreds/thousands selling for 5-6-7 figures, and I have never heard of any of them. Manufactured rarity might just be a fad...Time will tell. Until then you have to love the real gems we collect!!
.

[puckpaul]

Judging by the vintage auctions we see so often, anything really good is going strong. I have barely been able to buy what I am interested in. If you didnt tell us above, I would have no idea there were problems in the modern market. Then again has there ever been anything more predictable? Prices of modern fabricated “rarities” of players not even established went soaring, so if they are now plummeting, so be it, hardly surprising and has only a little to do with thebroad vintage market.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

It will be fascinating to see how the reality stacks up with these pretty much consensus predictions. If the bubble has truly burst on modern, the room, including tables, should be full of 20 and 30 somethings desperately looking to dump as much as they can before the music stops altogether.

This is not in the least how inexperience in investing currently works. I expect little to no impact whatsoever on attendance, nor fire sales. We are still 12 to 24 months from visible impact of demand.

When the meme stocks crashed it was a continuous disbelief, much like many echo in these threads at time, that a rebound is always coming and to "buy the dip". People had been making so much, it was incomputable mentally that a drop could be real. They piled as much as they could borrow into dead ideas like GME and AMC, long after the short squeeze was over and compounded the losses they already had exponentially in order to regain on the losses they already accrued in a effort to flip the story.

The exact same thing is happening with the flip community as they share much of the same experience and lack of it. They are continuing to buy modern at the dip thinking the rebound is coming. They are shoring up vintage from notable drops by discussing it as a hedge while they wait for the modern boom to circle back. The same flippers are focused on the big names like Mantle, Aaron, etc and adding them in an attempt to stabilize like a stock to bond transition. They are dipping into prewar big names to have holds.

No true effect on the valuation or market can be actually calculated until the desperation slows and we are not close to that point as of yet. You need to be watching the modern boards and YouTube to have any grasp on the current trends. Any feedback on this National that proclaims the market is steady is no different than Disney telling me their newest reboot is a massive hit because of a strong opening weekend and ignoring that the second drops 80%.

We are not there...at all.

For an example this is how the desperate move. One big win, several years of dragging mud…and this is still 75% overvalue to logic.

[mrreality68]

Alot of the New Money from people that made money on NFT's, money coming in from Hedge Funds and the likes, Crypto Money is not there as much anymore.

The modern market was flooded with Raw Cards that became graded and added to the inventory and the Famous 1 of 1 refractors etc.

This is a correction in the market but it is still up in most Vintage over Pre-covid so those that were early collectors did well and others if they were strategic and bought right.

Sadly many may still be underwater and I just hope they stayed within their budgets and did not get burned

[packs]

I don't really think new money NFT or crypto people bought vintage baseball. Modern baseball if baseball at all, but I'm more inclined to believe these people were drawn to Pokemon cards and modern basketball before they ever considered buying a T205.

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Alot of the New Money from people that made money on NFT's, money coming in from Hedge Funds and the likes, Crypto Money is not there as much anymore.

The modern market was flooded with Raw Cards that became graded and added to the inventory and the Famous 1 of 1 refractors etc.

This is a correction in the market but it is still up in most Vintage over Pre-covid so those that were early collectors did well and others if they were strategic and bought right.

Sadly many may still be underwater and I just hope they stayed within their budgets and did not get burned

Crypto money IS there, it's just not here in sports card collectibles at the moment. Blackrock Bitcoin ETF, crypto gaming, the Bitcoin halving in 8 months - it's a 4 year cycle in crypto... just wait for '24-'26, the money coming back into cards will be another tidal wave - imho.

Can't wait to see the reports on the great vintage stuff coming out of Chicago though - exciting week every year!

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Any feedback on this National that proclaims the market is steady is no different than Disney telling me their newest reboot is a massive hit because of a strong opening weekend and ignoring that the second drops 80%. We are not there...at all.

Uh...OK, so you're saying the market for everything, including modern, is steady now but poised for a big drop in 12-24 months? Where are we not yet...at all, the big drop? And this National will be a strong one all around, then, including all the young flippers looking to buy as in the recent past?

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Uh...OK, so you're saying the market for everything, including modern, is steady now but poised for a big drop in 12-24 months? Where are we not yet...at all, the big drop? And this National will be a strong one all around, then, including all the young flippers looking to buy as in the recent past?

That’s not what I said at all.

I said that current prices are not an indicator that we are close to the end. I also don’t think that people will be dumping, nor would I think the lack of that shows much in either direction.

The “investors” are holding if they have any clue and will for a while. Anyone, unless they are needy from repayment from over borrowing, are going to sit. The vast majority of the new blood has little experience in the hobby and will basement hoard for awhile just like the prior junk wax boom. People know a mass dump of product will bring down the value more. If they needed cash infusion, they have already moved some and tried to recoup some.

If the market floods prices will drop rapidly, items will slowly come in but the actuality of what will move prices is slowing demand. The hype train is still pushing hard and the industry is going to do everything to keep that going. I expect strong sales in all honesty as the newer collectors have only the experience of huge prices and profit. The idea that this is the temporary drop that the youtubers are pushing is easily believable. This drop is looking like a great time to buy if you think that a big return is coming.

I think this could be a more successful National than last year and expect you may have a hard time getting good prices if you try to sell to dealers as quietly they likely see the risk too high to stockpile. That said, the collectors and consumers are a different animal. They will be spending.

I’ll wait until next year before I think demand will start to wane. If the big bounce back doesn’t come, that’s when the faith in buying low slows. It also should reflect in vintage as well as the flip crowd has been moving to the post war, and big five since last fall and keeping those values steady while they wait for the modern return.

Hey, it’s my opinion. You don’t have to agree…I am the only one who needs to.