Never Too Early to Check:

[nat]

Fun article with a look at some cards I wouldn't have seen otherwise. Thanks!

[KJA]

Always interesting to see which of these first timers stick on the ballot. So far Felix, Kinsler and Pedroia are abover 5%.

[jayshum]

Currently looks like Ichiro, CC and Wagner could get in this time, and Beltran and Jones could be close. With no one next year being an obvious first ballot choice, anyone who gets close this year has a great chance next year.

[Bored5000]

As a Phillies fan, I think most people in the area always felt Jimmy Rollins was going to have a much better chance than Chase Utley at getting in the Hall of Fame. Now that both have been on the ballot for a couple years, it looks like Utley will get in within the next few years and Rollins will languish on the ballot until his eligibility runs out.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Bored5000

As a Phillies fan, I think most people in the area always felt Jimmy Rollins was going to have a much better chance than Chase Utley at getting in the Hall of Fame. Now that both have been on the ballot for a couple years, it looks like Utley will get in within the next few years and Rollins will languish on the ballot until his eligibility runs out.

Fellow Phillies fan here. Rollins looks like a better choice based on traditional stats while Utley looks better using more advanced stats. I agree with you that Utley has the better chance of getting elected, but it wouldn't surprise me if neither did.

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Fellow Phillies fan here. Rollins looks like a better choice based on traditional stats while Utley looks better using more advanced stats. I agree with you that Utley has the better chance of getting elected, but it wouldn't surprise me if neither did.

I think Utley will get in over the coming years, just based on where his vote started and his momentum. I was surprised he was strong as he was in his first year on the ballot (28 percent) and he is at 47 percent right now in a year when four guys may be elected. The ballot will not always have so many guys will strong HoF cases.

By comparison, Rollins' HoF votes have barely moved. He started at nine percent in 2022, received 14 percent last year and is only at 16 percent this time around on the ballots so far.

[Mike D.]

One thing to remember is that the vote totals always end up lower, as those voters who don't publish their ballots tend to be the ones who also don't take things like modern statistics into consideration. If I recall, the drop is usually like 5-8%. So, all three of the "likely" candidates should still make it, but it's unlikely Beltran makes it, although he'll get upper 60's or maybe even 70%.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Bored5000

I think Utley will get in over the coming years, just based on where his vote started and his momentum. I was surprised he was strong as he was in his first year on the ballot (28 percent) and he is at 47 percent right now in a year when four guys may be elected. The ballot will not always have so many guys will strong HoF cases.

By comparison, Rollins' HoF votes have barely moved. He started at nine percent in 2022, received 14 percent last year and is only at 16 percent this time around on the ballots so far.

So far, Utley has picked up 10 votes from people that didn't vote for him last year, but he also lost 5 votes from people who did vote for him last year. For 2 of those voters, they voted for 10 others so Utley apparently got pushed out by some of the new choices such as Ichiro and C.C. However, the other 3 voted for less than 10 and decided to leave Utley off their ballots this year after voting for him last year. Seems strange.

Rollins has picked up 7 votes from people that didn't vote for him last year and hasn't lost any from people who did (so far). If that continues, his overall percent will climb a little, but he's still a long way from being voted in.