Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

sb1 · #1 04-07-2025, 05:47 PM

i have/had roughly the same amount in my Fidelity holdings and my card collection. To date I am down seven figures in the brokerage account, meanwhile the cards remain about the same value as a month or two ago, when the market slide began, and it concerns me very little in the big scheme of things. Fear not, the market will come back sooner or later. I have been in equities since 1989 and remained fully invested thru the Gulf War crisis, Dot com bubble, 2008 Mortgage crisis and Covid, each and every time the market has regained its prior level and gone on to reach even higher and each time I was consistently throwing more money into the holdings. This time will be no different whether it takes 2 month or 2 years I can't predict, but probably much closer to the former than the latter.

My advice to those that frequently ask what to do, is nothing, unless you want to buy more, especially younger investors with the benefit of time on their side. It is very easy to get out of a down market, when to get back in is the hard part, most people either miss it or stay out entirely and miss out even more.

BobbyStrawberry · #2 04-07-2025, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sb1

i have/had roughly the same amount in my Fidelity holdings and my card collection. To date I am down seven figures in the brokerage account, meanwhile the cards remain about the same value as a month or two ago, when the market slide began, and it concerns me very little in the big scheme of things. Fear not, the market will come back sooner or later. I have been in equities since 1989 and remained fully invested thru the Gulf War crisis, Dot com bubble, 2008 Mortgage crisis and Covid, each and every time the market has regained its prior level and gone on to reach even higher and each time I was consistently throwing more money into the holdings. This time will be no different whether it takes 2 month or 2 years I can't predict, but probably much closer to the former than the latter.

My advice to those that frequently ask what to do, is nothing, unless you want to buy more, especially younger investors with the benefit of time on their side. It is very easy to get out of a down market, when to get back in is the hard part, most people either miss it or stay out entirely and miss out even more.

Why do you believe this?

Peter_Spaeth · #3 04-07-2025, 06:12 PM

I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.

As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine.

BobbyStrawberry · #4 04-07-2025, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.

As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine.

I should have been clearer - I was specifically asking about the bold part - "that it will be closer to 2 months than 2 years"

bk400 · #5 04-07-2025, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.

As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine.

Reading the tea leaves of the market is like arguing about baseball, but my sense is that the market is pricing in the risk that there is neither strategy nor competence underpinning the tariff policies -- and that American institutions are losing their prestige both domestically and internationally. If "flight to quality" means a flight of capital to somewhere other than the US, then we have a very big problem.

I'm personally of the view that logic prevails over time, but I think the market isn't as confident about that than I am.

Peter_Spaeth · #6 04-07-2025, 10:19 PM

Japan stock market up 6 percent. Dow futures up 700 as we speak. The sky is not falling, yet anyhow.

raulus · #7 04-07-2025, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Japan stock market up 6 percent. Dow futures up 700 as we speak. The sky is not falling, yet anyhow.

It�s the dead cat bounce!

Unless it�s not�

Peter_Spaeth · #8 04-07-2025, 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulus

It�s the dead cat bounce!

Unless it�s not�

LOL. Exactly. Sometimes that dead cat keeps on bouncing doesn't he.

BioCRN · #9 04-08-2025, 07:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Japan stock market up 6 percent. Dow futures up 700 as we speak. The sky is not falling, yet anyhow.

Japan has been bumped to negotiate. Vietnam wants a deal, but the administration wants more of something...whatever it is...

China is close to starting a currency devaluation war and they don't seem to be willing to play this game every country in the world is being forced to play.

The market spoke clearly yesterday on a mutli-thousand point bump based on a rumor and took that bump away just as quickly as it was deemed just a rumor. It's about the tariffs, and only the tariffs. That's the symptom and solution.

People are yearning for the floor. Any good news should bounce, but who knows what level of bad can erase it, minor or major.

Anyway, a there's a lot of savings accounts giving 3.7-4% right now and it's not swayed by the whims of whatever the hell is going on with forcefully trying to reset the world economic order for the hell of it. Well, China going to a currency war could force up inflation rates and eventually give better interest rates on savings.

bk400 · #10 04-08-2025, 07:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BioCRN

Japan has been bumped to negotiate. Vietnam wants a deal, but the administration wants more of something...whatever it is...

China is close to starting a currency devaluation war and they don't seem to be willing to play this game every country in the world is being forced to play.

The market spoke clearly yesterday on a mutli-thousand point bump based on a rumor and took that bump away just as quickly as it was deemed just a rumor. It's about the tariffs, and only the tariffs. That's the symptom and solution.

People are yearning for the floor. Any good news should bounce, but who knows what level of bad can erase it, minor or major.

Anyway, a there's a lot of savings accounts giving 3.7-4% right now and it's not swayed by the whims of whatever the hell is going on with forcefully trying to reset the world economic order for the hell of it. Well, China going to a currency war could force up inflation rates and eventually give better interest rates on savings.

I'm somewhat surprised that China hasn't (i) shut down Tesla's entire supply chain in China and (ii) started selling some Treasuries from its foreign currency reserves. I suppose that's a good sign.

sb1 · #11 04-07-2025, 06:21 PM

Several reasons, firstly someone on one side or the other of the tariffs will fold, and/or the Fed will make a move(lower interest rates), and investors will also realize that multiples are now much lower and the market is oversold. Part of the equation is company earnings as well, and whatever the headwind, companies tend to find a way to increase their earnings through good times and bad, using price pass increases to the consumer or by cutting costs, either way the bottom line comes out positive. Lastly, also consider the huge amount of cash sitting on the sideline, a few hints of good news and the market will "Melt-up" pretty quickly.

None of this is financial advice, just my thoughts and experiences in past downturns.

Peter_Spaeth · #12 04-07-2025, 06:25 PM

Not a political comment per se, but under Article I of the Constitution it is Congress that has power over tariffs. If this REALLY goes south and starts threatening people's chances of reelection because the economy collapses, Congress may do something. But I doubt it will come to that.

BobbyStrawberry · #13 04-07-2025, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sb1

Several reasons, firstly someone on one side or the other of the tariffs will fold, and/or the Fed will make a move(lower interest rates), and investors will also realize that multiples are now much lower and the market is oversold. Part of the equation is company earnings as well, and whatever the headwind, companies tend to find a way to increase their earnings through good times and bad, using price pass increases to the consumer or by cutting costs, either way the bottom line comes out positive. Lastly, also consider the huge amount of cash sitting on the sideline, a few hints of good news and the market will "Melt-up" pretty quickly.

None of this is financial advice, just my thoughts and experiences in past downturns.

Appreciate your thoughts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Not a political comment per se, but under Article I of the Constitution it is Congress that has power over tariffs. If this REALLY goes south and starts threatening people's chances of reelection because the economy collapses, Congress may do something. But I doubt it will come to that.

I have read some things that sound like the beginnings of this.

Peter_Spaeth · #14 04-07-2025, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Appreciate your thoughts.

I have read some things that sound like the beginnings of this.

With all the mixed messaging, partisanship and spin (on both sides), and tone deafness, it's very hard to get a straightforward sense of things, IMO.

View Poll Results: Do the stock market losses play into your vintage buys?
Yes	95	25.33%
No	230	61.33%
Sometimes	50	13.33%
Voters: 375. You may not vote on this poll

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