What is the (predicted) future of card grading services?

[Belfast1933]

I don’t mean to recycle tired old topics like how much we all have issues with the major grading companies around their questionable fee models, terrible customer service, and seemingly changing standards over the last several years.

I have a different question - imagine us are now all +10 years from now looking back at the last decade of how the hobby grades its cards… what are the possible outcomes and game changer scenarios that could happen?

- DIY authentication and grading services using AI?
- Well organized “crowd sourcing” models where collectors police themselves over hundreds of opinions on cards authenticity and/or “score?”
- A well funded, new entrant in the grading business who simply takes significant share away from PSA, finding a way to solve collector frustrations with the current options?
- vintage collectors migrate back in larger numbers to ungraded card collections
- or very little change at all…

I know we have lots of business savvy collectors here and I’d love to hear your thoughts - I’m just continually disappointed and/or confused by my own experiences but I know I am still feeding into the problem but simply repeating the process and hoping for a better result.

So, when we all look back in 10 years, what do we think will have changed in the card grading business for all of us?

[MVSNYC]

[darwinbulldog]

3D printing of new "vintage" cards that the collectors and 3rd party graders cannot distinguish from the originals. End of the hobby.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

3D printing of new "vintage" cards that the collectors and 3rd party graders cannot distinguish from the originals. End of the hobby.

Why 3D printing? Since the originals are really not that old and the same technology still exists we are just lucky more are not making perfect "copies" that get by the graders.

I am going with AI grading being the norm as it would truly be fair. I see a lot of resistance from those making a ton off PSA or have a ton of cash into PSA cards but the time will come when the dumpster fire that is PSA will be gone or reinvented to an all AI grading company.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Why 3D printing? Since the originals are really not that old and the same technology still exists we are just lucky more are not making perfect "copies" that get by the graders.

I am going with AI grading being the norm as it would truly be fair. I see a lot of resistance from those making a ton off PSA or have a ton of cash into PSA cards but the time will come when the dumpster fire that is PSA will be gone or reinvented to an all AI grading company.

I think we are a long ways off from true AI grading on vintage cards. But it would be nice to take some of the idiocy, we see every day, out of it.

[jingram058]

There are algorithms for everything now. When I was in the Navy, one of my jobs was writing them to be used on static and moving satellite imagery in order to determine and forecast critical meteorological info for places that don't send out that info to us. I retired in 2007. I can only imagine the improvements and advancements since. Yes, in the next 10 years you very easily could see self-service card authentication and grading. Sure, there will be bugs to refine initially, as with every other new development. But imagine how it would affect the hobby. Even a graded card nay-sayer such as myself might change my tune.

[conor912]

I predict Fanatics buys Collectors and slabs every card it makes BEFORE packaging. And then, of course, they will also offer a service to send in your already graded cards to be “Verified”, then slabbed in a second slab. Of course, some of these already slabbed cards will be rejected for a second slab because, you know, “graders are human and make mistakes too”….but in the name of customer service, will of course take a third look for another meager grading fee.

[Musashi]

Neither of the two biggest challenges for AI grading are the coding (which isn't up to par yet, but will likely get there sooner rather than later). Rather, they are

1) Insufficient examples in each grade (especially for scarcer issues) to properly train the model. That's why none of the smaller companies trying to give digital grading a go (that I'm aware of) are doing vintage.

2) Will also require a leap forward in scanning technology. Surface wrinkles and light creases tend to disappear in scans made even by quality scanners. System can't grade what it can't see.

[90feetaway]

AI grading with an AI produced explanation as to why the grade received. Maybe declared value item of say $2,500 gets a human double check review, for an additional fee of course.

[swarmee]

Nothing will change. PSA consolidates power. Costs continue to rise.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Nothing will change. PSA consolidates power. Costs continue to rise.

Agree PSA will continue the Gold Standard. Pop and Registry will reign..Low pop vintage stars will continue to rise.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Belfast1933

- Well organized “crowd sourcing” models where collectors police themselves over hundreds of opinions on cards authenticity and/or “score?”

I believe it’s about to become a real tool soon. The premise is that registered users of the site/app can vote on “eye appeal” and cards would be ranked by the eye appeal for that grade.

So you could say “I have the 5th highest rated T206 Green Portrait Ty Cobb in a PSA 2.5”

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/eye_appeal...tmZ3djb2lmag==

Website: https://www.eyeappealinc.com/

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I believe it’s about to become a real tool soon. The premise is that registered users of the site/app can vote on “eye appeal” and cards would be ranked by the eye appeal for that grade.

So you could say “I have the 5th highest rated T206 Green Portrait Ty Cobb in a PSA 2.5”

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/eye_appeal...tmZ3djb2lmag==

Website: https://www.eyeappealinc.com/

Bingo. I think future grading would be more than just one grade. Maybe a series of grades? Similar to Beckett but more enhanced.

[Hankphenom]

How about a machine that has AI fix any imperfections, undetectable by human eyes?

[conor912]

What if PSA started offering a card cleaning service? Wouldn’t that just be insane?!

[jingram058]

AI and the algorithms behind it is everywhere. It's not going to stop. It's only going to progress. It's scary, but that's how it is. It doesn't seem to me at all unreasonable to see it in card authentication and grading, sooner rather than later. I imagine the oil companies are trying desperately to sabotage EVs, and trying desperately to come up with some way of remaining relevant failing at that. I imagine the PSA monopoly in the same light.

[Huck]

I believe grading is here to stay. However, I did see vintage dealers with far more raw cards than in years past. Those who deal in new releases almost 100% graded.

Question, is each card unique like a fingerprint or snowflake? Is it possible to have identical cards?

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Huck

Question, is each card unique like a fingerprint or snowflake? Is it possible to have identical cards?

New grader TAG which uses AI to grade says that they can spot resubmissions of the same card due to fingerprinting techniques.

[raulus]

To answer the original question: what is the future of grading? Obviously none of knows for sure, but it’s hard to see a big shift away from the current regime.

Understandably, it’s temping to surmise that technology will have a bigger role going forward. After all, grading has been largely driven by human labor, and with machines destined to take over everything, it should only be a matter of time until they take over this thing.

At the same time, Snowman has written extensively on the challenges of leveraging technology to perform grading. Many of the challenges seem to stem from the difficulty in using images to truly identify the condition of a card, as well as being able to have a big enough data set to make sure that the technology can really differentiate between fake and real cards. Throw in the fact that computers struggle to do simple things that are important elements for us such as our tactile feel for thickness and surface texture, not to mention smell.

It’s also tempting to think that the many inherent limitations concomitant with the grading process will spell its downfall. And that’s still a possibility, for sure. But to date, the many scandals and grading failures over the last 35 years have failed to slow down this grading juggernaut. If those events couldn’t even break the stride of the graders, it’s difficult to imagine that further improprieties could possibly lead to a downfall in grading.

So as an earlier response noted: pain. Tech seems unlikely to have an impact, and the need for 3rd party graders is just too acute to get rid of them entirely, which is why any failures on the part of the graders are unlikely to be more than a speed bump.

[Exhibitman]

Easy answer: higher prices and worse service.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Easy answer: higher prices and worse service.

I'm not so sure. If it breaks up the present monopoly whereby a few people get rich beyond avarice for providing opinion by charging a lot of money to do so, then I am 100% in favor of it...once the bugs are worked out.

[Belfast1933]

I'm going to reply to my own post...

It's all so frustrating and I feel like we will continue to deal with the poor service, questionable fee structures, etc. until we/collectors move to another solution and force the TPGs to meaningfully improve.

Case in point - I have a high end card in process which is (shocker) late in spite of the inflated fee they demand that I pay for "express service"

In their cut & paste reply, they didn't even take the time to fill in the blank in their own reply (we're allowed 5 days to process and it's only been X days... with the "X" left blank)

But I found it telling what they DIDN'T forget to get right - they had the section that reminds me that their estimated turn around is ONLY AN ESTIMATE (was highlighted in yellow for emphasis).

Something tells me they lean on this a lot.

I'd love to find a way to force a change here - still looking (actively!)

[Huck]

Originally Posted by swarmee

New grader TAG which uses AI to grade says that they can spot resubmissions of the same card due to fingerprinting techniques.

Thanks.

[gomaz]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I believe it’s about to become a real tool soon. The premise is that registered users of the site/app can vote on “eye appeal” and cards would be ranked by the eye appeal for that grade.

So you could say “I have the 5th highest rated T206 Green Portrait Ty Cobb in a PSA 2.5”

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/eye_appeal...tmZ3djb2lmag==

Website: https://www.eyeappealinc.com/

I just had a walk through of Eye Appeal Inc. today with its founder MattyC. We did a Zoom and screenshare. It is launching in beta on July 7 and should launch publicly a month later.

It looks very awesome. Sort of everything the non-PSA kool-aid drinkers would want in democratizing card assessments. Notice I did not say grading as it is not a grading company but rather gives the community the ability to share their opinions on how a nice a card is overall.

I am very excited to start using it as a tool once launched and if anyone here is interested in learning more about Eye Appeal Inc. or its founder MattyC, he will be joining my July 19 episode of Sports Cards Live which also happens to be a part of Hobbypalooza (a 3-day YouTube content event hosted by the 4collectors Youtube channel).

I would encourage people to tune into this episode and then after, formulating your opinions on what this tool is and may become.

[bmattioli]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think we are a long ways off from true AI grading on vintage cards. But it would be nice to take some of the idiocy, we see every day, out of it.

Oh yea?? I called tonight to renegotiate my Sirius subscription and it was ALL AI driven. " Mary" Gave me a great deal and renewed for another year. It's coming everywhere and no stopping it..