A New All Time Record for a Sports Card

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I remember when the stock market crashed in 2008, The NY Times ran a piece in its business section about how every ups driver, hair cutter, and taxi driver in America was checking their stock holdings in real time, because the market was roaring ahead and everyone and his brother was getting rich. Everyone was giddy. I remember thinking a few months later that if that wasn’t the bell ringing on irrational exuberance, what was. I should have sold the day that I saw article appeared.

Wonder if someday we look back on this purchase by these three goons … eh, guys …. and shake our head and say “yeah, things got really stupid in 2025….. Was pretty obvious ….”

I remember starting law school in the late 80s and befriending some MBA students -- and Black Monday occurred just as they were starting the beginning of their business education. They figured their futures were done and that there would be no coming back from that crash. There's no guarantee of where the markets in financials and baseball cards will go in the future, but over the past 50 years, the S & P is up 7.7% annualized after being adjusted for inflation. Over the long term I suspect we'll be ok with our card values, as long as you're diversified and not stocking up on the modern equivalent of tulips.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Over the long term I suspect we'll be ok with our card values, as long as you're diversified and not stocking up on the modern equivalent of tulips.

In general, I think you’re right, although I would add a few caveats:

1) you didn’t buy most (or all) of your stuff at the top
2) you don’t have a pressing need to sell in the near future after a hypothetical crash occurs
3) we don’t become the stamp world

The stamp parallels, while a bit frightening, have always seemed like a very unlikely outcome to me. But not something that can be completely ignored.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by raulus

In general, I think you’re right, although I would add a few caveats:

1) you didn’t buy most (or all) of your stuff at the top
2) you don’t have a pressing need to sell in the near future after a hypothetical crash occurs
3) we don’t become the stamp world

The stamp parallels, while a bit frightening, have always seemed like a very unlikely outcome to me. But not something that can be completely ignored.

Stamp collecting was huge in the 60s and 70s; but never reached the level as sports cards, for obvious reasons. And my point is, unless a crash/correction occurs and you need to sell the long term outlook should be ok.

[Exhibitman]

Stamp collecting is having somewhat of a comeback in the lower financial end.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by raulus

3) we don’t become the stamp world

The stamp parallels, while a bit frightening, have always seemed like a very unlikely outcome to me. But not something that can be completely ignored.

That possibility has also crossed my mind. It seems that interest in stamp collecting evaporated as baby boomers found other alternatives that had more meaning to them, e.g. bubble gum cards, comics, the toys they remembered from their formative years, even gold & silver coins since many remembered having silver coins in their pockets once upon a time.

I'm therefore interested in why you think such a quantum change in collecting interests is unlikely. From all reports, things have changed in the schoolyard and kids aren't collecting the same ways as were kids fifty+ years ago. Not only do they not collect the same kind of cards, their mindset behind collecting is now very different.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

That possibility has also crossed my mind. It seems that interest in stamp collecting evaporated as baby boomers found other alternatives that had more meaning to them, e.g. bubble gum cards, comics, the toys they remembered from their formative years, even gold & silver coins since many remembered having silver coins in their pockets once upon a time.

I'm therefore interested in why you think such a quantum change in collecting interests is unlikely. From all reports, things have changed in the schoolyard and kids aren't collecting the same ways as were kids fifty+ years ago. Not only do they not collect the same kind of cards, their mindset behind collecting is now very different.

It's a good question, and my knowledge of the stamp world is superficial at best, which is why I can't answer with extreme confidence.

But my understanding is that a big part of the issue with the stamp world is that eBay exposed the fact that there was a lot more material out there than previously thought. Obviously eBay did not have a negative impact on our world, at least it hasn't caused values to crater.

Separately, it sounds like part of the challenge is also that governments went nuts with flooding the market with stamps. I suppose in some ways this is analogous to the junk wax era in our world. Luckily, the flooding of the cardboard market in the modern era didn't negatively impact values for vintage cardboard.

As with any collecting endeavor, the biggest issue is whether the next generation steps up and buys the stuff when generations turn over. And I guess we can all question whether that's a problem for us here. Certainly based on reports, it sounds like plenty of youngsters are showing up at card shows and are collecting cardboard. So perhaps there is room for optimism on this score.

I do think that the long-term viability of baseball as a sport could also be a factor. While baseball is not nearly as popular relative to other sports as it was 70 years ago, and it seems like there are always hints that it's waning in popularity, the business overall seems to keep humming along just fine. We'll see whether the Star Trek prediction about the demise of baseball ends up coming true.

[Balticfox]

I keep remembering the episode where Spock described a 1962 Topps Roger Maris card as "priceless".



That is a card though I'd like to add to my own collection at some point.

[molenick]

I also remember that episode but it was not from the original series, so no Spock. It was a Next Generation episode called "The Most Toys". The card makes its appearance at roughly 4:00 into this clip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80HEercI8gM