Most Upside in Next 5 Years

[Hankphenom]

And I'm not a card guy! Far be it for me to disagree with one of the whales of our hobby, but I can't see tickets, Ryan. I just think cards, for a number of reasons, will always be the 800-lb gorilla, assuming you pick the right ones, as you have. Vintage autographs might be some competition for the top spot, again assuming it's the right ones. Other than forgeries, there will be no more coming out from any players born before 1935 or so, so that pretty much guarantees appreciation as they get collected up. To summarize, I'd go with the tried and true unless one is inclined to gamble with the money.

[Rhotchkiss]

Hank, great point about autos. I totally forgot to add them to the poll. I have asked Leon to edit the poll to add them as another choice

[sb1]

While tickets might make a move up, I believe cards will still be king over them as well as autographs and other memorabilia. In a nutshell it is the visual aspect of the image on the card. Imagine the ticket which holds a lot of info and historical context on a Aaron or Mantle game and you could look at it or an early Aaron or Mantle card in your collection. As they say "a picture is worth a thousand words". Therefore, I believe the masses(which is what really drives any market), will still opt for the card. Sure a small percentage might opt for the auto, but it will be like many other areas of the market that are thinly traded, popularity trumps rarity.

[Zach Wheat]

Originally Posted by sb1

While tickets might make a move up, I believe cards will still be king over them as well as autographs and other memorabilia. In a nutshell it is the visual aspect of the image on the card. Imagine the ticket which holds a lot of info and historical context on a Aaron or Mantle game and you could look at it or an early Aaron or Mantle card in your collection. As they say "a picture is worth a thousand words". Therefore, I believe the masses(which is what really drives any market), will still opt for the card. Sure a small percentage might opt for the auto, but it will be like many other areas of the market that are thinly traded, popularity trumps rarity.

I tend to agree with Scott here, in particular as it pertains to key cards/grades. I think the market for HOF and higher graded cards will do well

[Snapolit1]

Cards. There is a defined market for most cards, prices are reported, population reports exist, and enough demand to keep prices up. Other than stubs, the rest of this doesn't have an easily defined population. Keeps prices down.

(Many stubs I am sure are not graded.)

I watched a piece of memorabilia just sell for 15K a few days ago. In 2023 sold for 35K. Happens more often than you'd think.

Many people buy cards as an investment. I'd guess that 95%+ of people who drop $25,000 on a piece of memorabilia really want if and aren't "investors" or even interested in a resale.

[samosa4u]

I agree with the comments on here. Cards will always be king. But the younger crowd really likes them signed. So for example, buying a signed Koosman/Ryan rookie might be better than buying an unsigned one.

And I choose TYPE 1 photos over tickets. Tickets can't match their asthetic appeal.

[Snapolit1]

Lots of aesthetic appeal indeed.

Originally Posted by samosa4u

I agree with the comments on here. Cards will always be king. But the younger crowd really likes them signed. So for example, buying a signed Koosman/Ryan rookie might be better than buying an unsigned one.

And I choose TYPE 1 photos over tickets. Tickets can't match their asthetic appeal.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Cards. There is a defined market for most cards, prices are reported, population reports exist, and enough demand to keep prices up. Other than stubs, the rest of this doesn't have an easily defined population. Keeps prices down.

(Many stubs I am sure are not graded.)

I watched a piece of memorabilia just sell for 15K a few days ago. In 2023 sold for 35K. Happens more often than you'd think.

Many people buy cards as an investment. I'd guess that 95%+ of people who drop $25,000 on a piece of memorabilia really want if and aren't "investors" or even interested in a resale.

Memorabilia can be tricky. Anything that is cool and maybe unique can vary a lot, and often trades so infrequently as to have no established market (off which someone might bid it up because it’s “obviously cheap”).

Photos i have bought and sold have done randomly.

I have had items like Virgil Trucks’s 1945 Tigers championship silver bowl, which i bought at probably a very full price at the National years ago because I was friends with Derek back then (his great nephew and world class guitarist) and thought it was cool and i might never see it again…i auctioned it last year and got 15% of what i paid. It was probably too cheap there but i was moving and wanted to cut down on some bulky items.

Then i also reauctioned a hockey banner of Johnny Bower and got 7x what i paid. Two guys fought over it in the bidding.

With memorabilia, you better love what you buy! I rarely buy memorabilia because i think it’s cheap. Might try that with cards, though.

I do think rarity and significance makes a lot of memorabilia cheaper than i think it should be, especially older gameworn jerseys (hockey and baseball).

[Snapolit1]

Derek Trucks is related to Virgil Trucks!!!! Hot Damm. Can't believe I've not heard that before! Awesome piece of info.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldpbTip2riE

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Hank, great point about autos. I totally forgot to add them to the poll. I have asked Leon to edit the poll to add them as another choice

Sorry I called you Rich, yet another old guy moment to add to the growing list.

[Brian Van Horn]

Should be interesting the impact of AI shill bidding.

[CardPadre]

I will shit on tickets also (with the exception of a few mega-significant events). They generally don't evoke any kind of feeling or emotion or joy from just seeing them.

Seeing a card, you often get an immediate feeling based on who the player is, the art/design, the type/issue, your own experience with collecting or coveting it, just a lot of instant and positive reactions to a card.

Tickets...you look at one, and its significance is almost never immediately apparent. You can read everything on it, and then you have to look at the flip to see why PSA says you should be impressed by, and value, it.

NOT...FUN.

Like I said, a handful of extremely monumental events will be highly coveted, massively valued, and probably appreciate reasonably well. But I doubt the general ticket market does anything noteworthy to rise beyond its current status in the collecting world.

[Brent G.]

Cards, cards, cards. From a player standpoint, I still think Jackie Robinson has the most room for growth, in all things.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

I completely understand why other people may get excited over tickets and their direct connection to a moment in time, but they're mostly bland in appearance and do nothing for me. The stubs are so often torn worse than a strip card and can look rather ratty as a result. Many were taped into scrapbooks, so lots of ugly yellow spots in many instances.

While I've hung onto ticket stubs from everything I've ever attended, I never even look at them.

Zero interest in tickets whatsoever, unless it was to turn a nice and tidy profit, but I could say the same thing about a truckload of sporks.

I don't have interest in unsigned photos, either, but if forced to choose, I'd much rather have an original photo of a certain event as opposed to a stub from the same date. While the stub "bore witness" to the event, it fails to convey any emotion, which is the strongest trait of the greatest photos. Emotion sells. With the photo, you yourself are able to bear witness to the event, even if you weren't alive to have been there.

I could certainly understand people's appreciation of having the trifecta of the photo, the stub and autographs of all pertinent parties to create a nice framed piece. Nothing wrong with that idea whatsoever, and each item compliments all the others. Throw a scorecard in there, too!

[MVSNYC]

Hi Ryan, great post.

I voted tickets as well. They've really gained steam in recent years, for the reasons you mentioned- rarity, pinpointed to a specific event (the catch, called shot, perfect games...), special record, rookie debut, etc. They very often have cool typography/graphics design, and are easy to store/display.

My kids collect with me now, and when I acquire a new ticket, I'll often pull up the video of the moment/game to show them, and it instantly gives them a memorable visual to go with the ticket.

Edited to add: I see that Autographs have been added to the conversation. I also see them making a big move up, especially PSA graded Autos on cards.

[Casey2296]

Can you even get a printed ticket from a modern game today? Seems like everything is done electronically now. If younger collectors can't get an Ohtani 50th home run ticket for example, does that generation lose interest in them as collectibles?

[raulus]

If I knew, I wouldn’t tell my own mother.

I do think that there are strong arguments for most everything on this list, along with lots of arguments against.

While there are obvious investing elements associated with collecting, there are also serious emotional aspects, as many of us collect what makes us happy, and the financial aspects come along for the ride. I know you don’t want to dwell on this sentiment, but it’s difficult to ignore, and it certainly can have an impact on returns as well, as an emotional connection drives popularity and value.

My guess is that if you collect nice pieces from top flight players from any of these categories, you’ll do fine. Obviously one group might outshine the others, particularly over a short or mid-term window. But whether the return is 4% or 7% or 15%, other than collecting NFTs or ultramodern stuff, my guess is you’ll make money as long as you aren’t looking to flip it in super short order.

[calvindog]

Tickets largely bore me, especially when compared to cards. However, Ryan asked about a five year horizon -- and tickets have just started picking up steam. Over the next five years I wouldn't be surprised if tickets outperform cards. Twenty year horizon, different story.

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Tickets largely bore me, especially when compared to cards.

I couldn't agree more! To me, tickets have next to no eye appeal. My guess is that autographed cards and autographed Type 1 photos have the most investment potential over the next 5 years.

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by ValKehl

My guess is that autographed cards and autographed Type 1 photos have the most investment potential over the next 5 years.

Type 1 photos (signed & not signed) have also really gained steam too.

I think, in any of these categories, if having a conversation about appreciation and value, the simple rule of thumb (just like when collecting cards) is...try to get the best players, best moments, best debuts, best images, in the best condition that you can.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Can you even get a printed ticket from a modern game today? .... does that generation lose interest in them as collectibles?

As Jeff correctly pointed out, the question is the NEXT FIVE YEARS, meaning the next generation is largely irrelevant for purposes of this thread.

And no worries Hank, I have been called much worse!

[scooter729]

Since cards seems to be the most popular answer, I'd love to hear from folks about what sports have the most potential upside in that same five-year window.

I know most of us on this page are going to be biased towards baseball, but if we ruled out baseball, where do you see the most growth potential? Basketball (which saw exponential growth during Covid, much of which crashed back to earth quickly)? A sport like soccer with global appeal? Something else?

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by scooter729

Since cards seems to be the most popular answer, I'd love to hear from folks about what sports have the most potential upside in that same five-year window.

I know most of us on this page are going to be biased towards baseball, but if we ruled out baseball, where do you see the most growth potential? Basketball (which saw exponential growth during Covid, much of which crashed back to earth quickly)? A sport like soccer with global appeal? Something else?

Woman's basketball cards. They've had tremendous appreciation in the last few years and, based on scarcity, there is still plenty of room to go. The WNBA added a team this year, the first addition in a long time, and has two more scheduled to be added next year. Attendance at games has gone up a lot and television coverage has increased dramatically. Part of this began as the Caitlin Clark effect, and that got people in the door, but the quality of the product kept them there. A Clark 1/1 rookie(one of several different 1/1 rookies --does the Panini printing press ever stop?) went for almost $700,000 this year. I think that price is totally crazy but it does show that there is money out there with an interest in the woman's game.

[BioCRN]

Tickets and photos are def having a "moment" right now in popularity, especially photos most recently.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Woman's basketball cards. They've had tremendous appreciation in the last few years and, based on scarcity, there is still plenty of room to go. The WNBA added a team this year, the first addition in a long time, and has two more scheduled to be added next year. Attendance at games has gone up a lot and television coverage has increased dramatically. Part of this began as the Caitlin Clark effect, and that got people in the door, but the quality of the product kept them there. A Clark 1/1 rookie(one of several different 1/1 rookies --does the Panini printing press ever stop?) went for almost $700,000 this year. I think that price is totally crazy but it does show that there is money out there with an interest in the woman's game.

I find this hard to believe. I have NEVER heard any guys i know, many of whom are all big sports fans, ever talk about women’s sports and certainly never about women’s basketball. I scroll past it in the online papers. The players are unappealing. Can women and speculators pick up the slack? I have serious doubts.

I still say its cards. Baseball cards. Just has the deepest widest appeal. I wish it were hockey, and i have felt that hockey memorabilia is undervalued, especially older wool jerseys and photos, but i still think of hockey as a niche and though collectors are rabid, it doesnt have the spillover appeal (yet, there is always hope as they add more teams in more US cities.)

Everything feels a little frothy at the moment, so a lot of cards and memorabilia dont stand out as cheap today. This is all a relative argument. As long as we are cutting rates into a frothy time to keep the game going, the dollar is going down relative to hard assets including collectibles, so I think we are ok for the time being.

I have some tickets i have owned and collected. They remind me of a game i went to. Those used by others to attend big games do relatively little for me for reasons others have stated. But starting from a low base, they could certainly do well from here. The best ones though will have been used not issued, and then the condition wont be great (torn) if they were older and ripped on admittance…is that what happened to most?….and that would eliminate the condition upside for the most part, and the registry game that has driven a lot of the card upside.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

As Jeff correctly pointed out, the question is the NEXT FIVE YEARS, meaning the next generation is largely irrelevant for purposes of this thread.

Duly noted.
So if we take:

A Joe Jackson ticket like the ones in your collection.

A Type 1 Joe Jackson photo

A 1914 CJ Jackson

IMHO they will all appreciate in the next 5 years, maybe 2x but that's just a guess, but I think the CJ appreciates a bit more than the other two.

[Schlesinj]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Can you even get a printed ticket from a modern game today? Seems like everything is done electronically now. If younger collectors can't get an Ohtani 50th home run ticket for example, does that generation lose interest in them as collectibles?

Isn’t that a similar argument as none of us witnessing Babe Ruth or someone like me never seeing Mickey Mantle hit a baseball live, but I would much rather own their card vs Aaron Judge.

We now have audio books, but people love to grab a hard copy to read. People collect records and some prefer listening to them too. Nostalgia is nostalgia.

To Ryan’s original question if I were to invest 10k into a sub-section of this class I think vintage of the greats has highest floor. Pokémon highest ceiling (own none) but witnessing “regular” shows and local shops the kids are very much interested in that space.

I am personally enjoying and see beautiful tickets from 30s-60s. Great colors. They present very well and are great to mix and match with type 1 photos, scorecards and art. Great story telling.

*One digital art comment, I read Christie’s shut down that category recently from their platform.

[oldjudge]

As someone who once collected tickets (Roger Clemens wins--talk about bad choice) I can appreciate that collecting genre. However, tickets to events that were deemed significant at the time tended to be saved so I think there are plenty out there in scrapbooks yet to hit the market. Also, as someone already pointed out, they are no longer issued so it's not something people think about. I think type 1 photos from significant events offer better appreciation opportunities because there is the visual appeal that Jeff mentioned. Personally, I still think that cards are the best bet in the long term. Shorter term it could be anything based on hype.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Schlesinj

Isn’t that a similar argument as none of us witnessing Babe Ruth or someone like me never seeing Mickey Mantle hit a baseball live, but I would much rather own their card vs Aaron Judge.

-
Maybe. Even though we never saw Ruth we collected cards of what was current at the time, 50s to 70s, at some point we ended up jumping down the pre-war rabbit hole of the past and discovered the old timers. But we had a connection because we collected cards as a kid.

If there are no hard stock tickets for a kid to collect today I think you lose a generation to ticket collecting because there was no modern equivalent hook to set regarding tickets. Now that's not saying the younger generation can't find their way to ticket collecting but it's not a straight line anymore.

I'm not a photo guy either but is there a modern equivalent to a type 1 photo in the modern digital age? The same dynamic might play out there too.

[Kzoo]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Can you even get a printed ticket from a modern game today? Seems like everything is done electronically now. If younger collectors can't get an Ohtani 50th home run ticket for example, does that generation lose interest in them as collectibles?

The Indianapolis 500 still has printed tickets each year and they've been attractive with great colors and graphics for over 100 years now.

[sb1]

Originally Posted by Kzoo

The Indianapolis 500 still has printed tickets each year and they've been attractive with great colors and graphics for over 100 years now.

I have near complete ticket/stubs runs of Indy 500 and Kentucky Derby from the 1920's on and of now, unfortunately, there is little demand it seems, I keep waiting for them to pick up, it seems they have to be graded to bring anything and ticket grading is not cheap.

[Writehooks]

While baseball cards will no doubt continue to be our most coveted collectibles, I strongly believe vintage boxing ephemera will see a significant upsurge over the next five years. Even though the sweet science is no more than an adjunct to North America’s “big four” mainstream sports in the 21st century, its colorful history and worldwide appeal make it special. In addition, big time professional boxing has doggedly preserved what I consider to be the two most enduring “I was there” artifacts in the realm of sports collecting: printed programs and commemorative tickets.

Due to prohibitive production costs, dwindling ad revenue and pressure from environmental groups, the NBA, NFL, NHL and MLB have pretty much thrown in the towel on paper keepsakes of a trip to the stadium or ballpark, instead providing a constant flow of digital data that can be accessed on smart phones. Fortunately, boxing hasn’t followed suit. World championship fights, particularly in the heavyweight division, continue to feature some of the most gorgeous programs and tickets ever produced – a tradition that dates back to John L. Sullivan vs Gentleman Jim Corbett in 1892. You could do a lot worse than invest that $10K in programs or tickets from fights involving Jack Johnson, Joe Louis, Sugar Ray Roninson or Muhammad Ali, or even stepping into the “modern” era of Ray Leonard, Mike Tyson and Floyd Mayweather.

[Brent G.]

Originally Posted by Writehooks

While baseball cards will no doubt continue to be our most coveted collectibles, I strongly believe vintage boxing ephemera will see a significant upsurge over the next five years. Even though the sweet science is no more than an adjunct to North America’s “big four” mainstream sports in the 21st century, its colorful history and worldwide appeal make it special. In addition, big time professional boxing has doggedly preserved what I consider to be the two most enduring “I was there” artifacts in the realm of sports collecting: printed programs and commemorative tickets.

Due to prohibitive production costs, dwindling ad revenue and pressure from environmental groups, the NBA, NFL, NHL and MLB have pretty much thrown in the towel on paper keepsakes of a trip to the stadium or ballpark, instead providing a constant flow of digital data that can be accessed on smart phones. Fortunately, boxing hasn’t followed suit. World championship fights, particularly in the heavyweight division, continue to feature some of the most gorgeous programs and tickets ever produced – a tradition that dates back to John L. Sullivan vs Gentleman Jim Corbett in 1892. You could do a lot worse than invest that $10K in programs or tickets from fights involving Jack Johnson, Joe Louis, Sugar Ray Roninson or Muhammad Ali, or even stepping into the “modern” era of Ray Leonard, Mike Tyson and Floyd Mayweather.

I respectfully disagree — I think boxing is probably the worst segment of the hobby to drop $10k. The biggest fight of the past year was the Paul/Tyson farce. We’re 20 years removed from it even being the most relevant combat sport. There are some incredible boxing cards out there — especially Jack Johnson and Ali. It’s a pretty inexpensive segment, but that’s because demand is getting smaller by the day. Tyson is the only boxer out there making money selling autographs — and he peaked in 1990. I love ‘60s-‘90s boxing history, but I’m 51 and there aren’t many younger than me that feel that way.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Writehooks

While baseball cards will no doubt continue to be our most coveted collectibles, I strongly believe vintage boxing ephemera will see a significant upsurge over the next five years. Even though the sweet science is no more than an adjunct to North America’s “big four” mainstream sports in the 21st century, its colorful history and worldwide appeal make it special. In addition, big time professional boxing has doggedly preserved what I consider to be the two most enduring “I was there” artifacts in the realm of sports collecting: printed programs and commemorative tickets.

Due to prohibitive production costs, dwindling ad revenue and pressure from environmental groups, the NBA, NFL, NHL and MLB have pretty much thrown in the towel on paper keepsakes of a trip to the stadium or ballpark, instead providing a constant flow of digital data that can be accessed on smart phones. Fortunately, boxing hasn’t followed suit. World championship fights, particularly in the heavyweight division, continue to feature some of the most gorgeous programs and tickets ever produced – a tradition that dates back to John L. Sullivan vs Gentleman Jim Corbett in 1892. You could do a lot worse than invest that $10K in programs or tickets from fights involving Jack Johnson, Joe Louis, Sugar Ray Roninson or Muhammad Ali, or even stepping into the “modern” era of Ray Leonard, Mike Tyson and Floyd Mayweather.

I wish.... I've been waiting for a boxing boom for so long that I have just about given up on it. If anyone has ten grand they want to bet on boxing stuff, please let me know.

I was going to say F1 and soccer. Both global, both largely untapped except cards, and both with substantial asymmetries of information (aka widely varying prices).




These are pure gambles, though. The best bet still is baseball, but not auctions, card shows, etc. From a pure ROI perspective, finding photos, tickets, and other ephemera in the wild is the best bet of all. If you have the time and the inclination, and you are a good picker who is expert in the details of the items you are chasing, you can score better than any traditional sale via nontraditional means. I've picked up scorecards, tickets and photos at a small fraction of value from ignorant sellers at paper fairs, antique shows, flea markets, etc. I wrote a Substack on it.

https://open.substack.com/pub/adamst...eOnShare=false

[oldjudge]

Hi Mike! I'm not saying that the WNBA will ever be as popular as the men's professional leagues. What I am saying is that viewership is growing and should continue to grow. If even a minuscule percentage of these new viewers become collectors then prices will continue their meteoric rise. From 2006-2018 WNBA cards were produced by Rittenhouse. The cards in many of these years were small boxed sets made in very limited quantities. In 2011, Maya Moore's rookie year only 225 sets were made, meaning only 225 Maya Moore rookie cards exist. Maya Moore is an all-time great who was just inducted into the Naismith HOF. Compare that number to the number of rookie cards available for HOFers in any other major sport and it's easy to see why a small increase in interest in these cards could translate to a big increase in prices.
I mentioned these cards a few years ago when a similar thread was going. My idea was laughed at then, but the prices of high grade star rookies have increased ten fold or more in many cases during this period.
I'm just as happy if no one believes this--I'm still buying and don't need additional competition--so I'll shut up about these cards after this post.

[aro13]

I selected Game Used but I could easily be persuaded by peoples opinions on this thread.

I agree with Jay on women's basketball and women's sports in general. The print runs are just so low on anything WNBA pre-2019. I don't see the newer stuff worth nearly as much as the print runs have gone crazy. HOFers in all sports are always in demand and there are plenty of elite women athletes whose cards have a lot of room to go up based on the limited supply.