Out of Touch

[Exhibitman]

"Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded". Yogi Berra

Basically, the current trends reward incumbents, those lucky (or prescient) enough to have man caves packed with vintage cards bought back in the day. Everyone else has to find stuff in the wild or pony up.

[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Basically, the current trends reward incumbents, those lucky (or prescient) enough to have man caves packed with vintage cards bought back in the day. Everyone else has to find stuff in the wild or pony up.

Yes, this^^^ I wish I was buying up pre-war cards in the 1970s. I suppose it's all relative. There are cards that I picked up in 2019 that have gone up a lot since then.

Finding a bargain is hard...it's always been hard. But with more people in the market it's harder. Occasionally, I find great bargains in an auction while lots of people are chasing the high end items. But I have to follow hundreds of items to just get one. It makes collecting slower but that's the game.

The OP is trying to trade into market inefficiencies. That's called arbitrage. With lot of market participants and an efficient market, arbitrage opportunities are few and far between.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

Yes, this^^^ I wish I was buying up pre-war cards in the 1970s. I suppose it's all relative. There are cards that I picked up in 2019 that have gone up a lot since then.

Finding a bargain is hard...it's always been hard. But with more people in the market it's harder. Occasionally, I find great bargains in an auction while lots of people are chasing the high end items. But I have to follow hundreds of items to just get one. It makes collecting slower but that's the game.

The OP is trying to trade into market inefficiencies. That's called arbitrage. With lot of market participants and an efficient market, arbitrage opportunities are few and far between.

That's exactly where I find myself; playing the arbitrage game with diminishing opportunities and reduced returns.
Thanks for all the positive input. Much appreciated, and I will refocus my energies and capital in a different direction. And, Nic, I loved your bit with the Mays Hire's card; a win/win and shows that the veil of obscurity can be pierced.

[gunboat82]

I've always been a bit out of touch, but lately I feel like I'm on a different planet. The latest Clean Sweep auction has made me question all of my everything I thought I knew about current values. Some of the cards -- in particular Ruths and Gehrigs -- are already priced higher than I thought they'd be after the 22% premium is added. I think some of these are going to set sales records for low-grade copies with average to below-average eye appeal.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by gunboat82

I've always been a bit out of touch, but lately I feel like I'm on a different planet. The latest Clean Sweep auction has made me question all of my everything I thought I knew about current values. Some of the cards -- in particular Ruths and Gehrigs -- are already priced higher than I thought they'd be after the 22% premium is added. I think some of these are going to set sales records for low-grade copies with average to below-average eye appeal.

I share your shock...ante'd up for this one in the not too distant past for far beyond my wildest nightmare price but I wanted to make sure I got one before it got even higher:



Some stuff I have I probably don't have if I had to buy it today.

[DeanH3]

Originally Posted by gunboat82

I've always been a bit out of touch, but lately I feel like I'm on a different planet. The latest Clean Sweep auction has made me question all of my everything I thought I knew about current values. Some of the cards -- in particular Ruths and Gehrigs -- are already priced higher than I thought they'd be after the 22% premium is added. I think some of these are going to set sales records for low-grade copies with average to below-average eye appeal.

I'm with you Mike. I guess I'm going to have to cross a Ruth off my list. I am grateful I got one many years ago. So at least I have one. But prices are just insane.

[timber63401]

The split between true collectors and investors/flippers have never been more skewered. Everyone is trying to squeeze all the profit out of everything. I never feel bad for people trying to make money flipping cards and failing. The market is way wonky right now and something has to give eventually I keep thinking the give is gonna be a price crash but maybe the give is just going to be the common man will be priced out permanently. If I could flip a magic switch we all would wake up tomorrow to a crashed market. Nothing I would love more then 1000 dollar 33 Goudey Ruths.

[ASF123]

Originally Posted by timber63401

The split between true collectors and investors/flippers have never been more skewered. Everyone is trying to squeeze all the profit out of everything. I never feel bad for people trying to make money flipping cards and failing. The market is way wonky right now and something has to give eventually I keep thinking the give is gonna be a price crash but maybe the give is just going to be the common man will be priced out permanently. If I could flip a magic switch we all would wake up tomorrow to a crashed market. Nothing I would love more than 1000 dollar 33 Goudey Ruths.

It seems to me that a total market crash for vintage is pretty much impossible at this point in the near-to-medium term, absent a broader economic collapse. There are more than enough of us who would start buying way before prices dropped that significantly.

Long-term, there’s the much-speculated irrelevance of vintage as our generations die off. But I’m hoping to have another 40 years or so (I’m 48), and I think there’s a pretty sustainable vintage buyer base around my age. 15-20 years after that? Not so sure.

[tulsaboy]

Originally Posted by timber63401

The split between true collectors and investors/flippers have never been more skewered. Everyone is trying to squeeze all the profit out of everything. I never feel bad for people trying to make money flipping cards and failing.

It's a hobby. A complete and totally unnecessary thing. I suspect for the overwhelming majority of card collectors, it's just fun. It's supposed to be fun. I think it's much more miserable when you're focused (panicked) about trying to make money with it. There are options for every budget across all segments of the hobby, if you are actually interested in it as a hobby. It's completely unrealistic to expect that we will be able to buy 33 Goudey Ruths for $500 anytime in the future, but there are plenty of vintage options for under $100- even with high-profile sets like T206s and 52 Topps. The problem arises when someone is trying to flip for profit. I adhere to a simple approach- I collect what interests me and what makes me smile, within the budget that I have. I have plenty of nice things, because I've been doing that for 30+ years. But I couldn't care less about trying to flip them for a profit. I'm sure I could, at this point, but having them, collecting them, is the fun part for me. I know that my approach is not the only approach, but I agree with the poster above- I have little sympathy for flippers who are sad that it's gotten harder to sqeeze more money out of collectors like me.

Just my 2 cents.

kevin

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

The OP is trying to trade into market inefficiencies. That's called arbitrage. With lot of market participants and an efficient market, arbitrage opportunities are few and far between.

Agreed. This is exactly why I started collecting tickets and feel there is real upside in most other card-adjacent items, like photos, game-used, unopened, autos, etc. Those markets are much more fragmented- they are less understood and there is less information (price guides, grading data, etc), which leads to fewer participants. However, as cards continue their run, people priced out or looking for other opportunities will start buying the closest alternatives, which I think are tickets and photos. And, as more people buy those alternatives, more information is collected, collated, and distributed, and the more reliable that market becomes, thus attracting more participants, including “investors”, and it continues to build from there.

The upside is in the card-adjacencies. And, frankly, they are cooler than cards in many ways.

“People will come Ray. People will most definitely come”. Terrance Mann

[Swadewade51]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Agreed. This is exactly why I started collecting tickets and feel there is real upside in most other card-adjacent items, like photos, game-used, unopened, autos, etc.

We've seen you posting some huge tickets recently, are you going to dip your toes into photos and other adjacencies as well?

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[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Swadewade51

We've seen you posting some huge tickets recently, are you going to dip your toes into photos and other adjacencies as well?

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Yes, I already have (sort of). I have gone after a few major type 1 photos (a rare Einstein tongue out and Mays the Catch), but did not win either. I almost went after the Babe Bows out in the last Goldin auction, but I decided to hold off. I look at the/consider photos often, but to date I have only gone for major things that have very special provenance. That may change soon. My only game used is the Demaryius Thomas jersey he wore when he caught Peyton Manning's record setting 61st TD pass. I look often at awards and stuff but have never pulled the trigger.

I have also started looking outside of sports at things like entertainment and historical memorabilia and items. Lots of stiff out there to collect/invest in.