Is this card really worth that????

[Wite3]

A few things first...Andrew has bought many T205s in the past year but I am fairly certain, I now own one of the largest and most diverse t205 collections. I have also, watched, charted, and handled thousands of t205s in the last decade. In the past 15 years I have put one near master set together missing only a Drum and a Hobby no stats, and am very close on a second set (minus three cards). Andrews set and cards are certainly in better condition than mine but I love my beaters.

Now, a bit of history...the Cycles used to carry a slight premium, usually about 2x-3x...that all changed about 5 years ago when a rather large find was made and sold into the hobby through ebay and two other auction houses. The premium seemed to go down and I was able to pick up some nice Cycles for nearly the same prices as the more common backs. I will say that they are at least twice as rare as HLC or Hassan still...they also do carry a slight premium...just check ebay...there was one that I lost (or am losing) just the other day that is nearly twice what I paid for a similar condition PB two weeks before. American Beauty definitely still carries a premium. Always has...especially the black version. This version now seems to be rarer...Now, the economy is making the prices bump up and down a bunch lately...Andrew, if you really want, I have a fantastic argument on why there should be a premium on Cycle and AB....because flatly, there are fewer of them made than the others...Sovereign barely contains a premium because a bunch have come to market in the past and they are not as scarce as once thought (In fact, in my first article sent to friends on the T205 set in 1996, I had the rarity of Sovereign more than Cycle and American Beauty because at the time, they were seen less commonly). This set changes rarity on finds...see Hindu/Drum example below...

Bob, When I first started tracking backs and doing research on this, I noticed that Hindu was listed as rarest. As I tracked there was a small Hindu find in the early '90s which seemed to push Drum to the top. Up until recently, I had charted 23 different Hindu players including at least 2 instances where there were two distinct cards of the same player meaning the Hindu had to run a printing at least twice. Now there are 31 distinct subjects.

Up until a year ago, I had only seen 18 different Drum backs, all different fronts. Until the St. Louis find, I figured it may have only run once, but I finally found a double, so I know that the Drum run was run at least twice. No the Drums and Hindus seem just about even again.

I still believe that Drum is tougher but not by much anymore.

The Cycle Matty is no scarcer than any other Cycle card as far as I can tell. The Wilhelm suffered is scarcer. I think that the print run for that card was different. I think that it is a single print that replaced another card on the sheet or was replaced by another card (like a minor leaguer) and was run with a much shorter print run. Just like the Hoblitzell no stats was probably replaced by another card or replaced another card and run with a much shorter print run. Whether it happened early in the print run or later, those cards are much rarer than the Cycle Matty. Granted Matty is a HOFer and it is one of the most beautiful cards in the set, I still feel that the premium placed on it is way out of line with rarity...it is just a demand premium and will go down eventually.

The list of rarity changes with new finds but here is what I have been working with lately independent of advertising...

Hobby no stats #1
Wilhelm suffered #2
Wallace no cap 1 line stats #4
Joss #4
Moran stray #5
Wallace no cap 2 line stats #6
Hobby no cin. name correct #7
Gray stats #8
Wilhelm suffe ed #9
Hobby no cin. name incorrect #10

Now, there has been some flux between #4-10 and some people might argue that some others should be included but these are my top ten and #1,2,3 are very very difficult.



Joshua

[Tcards-Please]

Using just the pop report from SGC, it appears that the Cycle Mathewson is more rare than the Wilhelm "suffered" version. Although any Wilhelm will be harder to find than the Mathewson. It would be great to know what the pop report is from the other grading companies to do a comparison. Here are the totals from SGC:

Total Mathewson's graded: 232
Total Cycle Mathewsons: 11

Total Wilhelms graded: 54
Total Cycle & Hassan: 12

So using that as a guide, it appears that the "suffered" version shows up in 1 out of every 4 (just a little more than 4) cards on average. On the other hand, the Mathewson Cycle appears 1 out of every 20 cards. Also, more "suffered" have already been graded than Mathewson's error.

Joshua: I see you didn't include the Mathewson in your list. Do you think that all those you have in your top 10 are more difficult to find????

Andrew, I agree that it is suspicious that a person with little feedback placed a high bid, but it can only go as high as the next highest bid. That said, you had two different people place bids over $2500 on that card. Don't you find it even more strange that from all the talk on this board from people claiming that they wouldn't pay more than a normal premium for a cycle, yet the price of that card kept going up past the "normal" premium?

That is just my take. I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as most on this topic, but it is interesting to read.

r/
Frank

[lentel]

Originally Posted by T's please

Using just the pop report from SGC, it appears that the Cycle Mathewson is more rare than the Wilhelm "suffered" version. Although any Wilhelm will be harder to find than the Mathewson. It would be great to know what the pop report is from the other grading companies to do a comparison. Here are the totals from SGC:

Total Mathewson's graded: 232
Total Cycle Mathewsons: 11

Total Wilhelms graded: 54
Total Cycle & Hassan: 12

So using that as a guide, it appears that the "suffered" version shows up in 1 out of every 4 (just a little more than 4) cards on average. On the other hand, the Mathewson Cycle appears 1 out of every 20 cards. Also, more "suffered" have already been graded than Mathewson's error.

Joshua: I see you didn't include the Mathewson in your list. Do you think that all those you have in your top 10 are more difficult to find????

Andrew, I agree that it is suspicious that a person with little feedback placed a high bid, but it can only go as high as the next highest bid. That said, you had two different people place bids over $2500 on that card. Don't you find it even more strange that from all the talk on this board from people claiming that they wouldn't pay more than a normal premium for a cycle, yet the price of that card kept going up past the "normal" premium?

That is just my take. I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as most on this topic, but it is interesting to read.

r/
Frank

I dont think all the sgc wilhelm hassans are suffered versions. They list the hassans more than once and they specify the word suffered. A little misleading in the totals

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by lentel

I dont think all the sgc wilhelm hassans are suffered versions. They list the hassans more than once and they specify the word suffered. A little misleading in the totals

Unless the "suffe ed" version also is found with the Hassan back, then those totals would be correct. If you notice, they have the piedmont listed twice, but we all know that the "suffered" version isn't found with piedmont backs.

[Mrc32]

Originally Posted by Wite3

The list of rarity changes with new finds but here is what I have been working with lately independent of advertising...

Hobby no stats #1
Wilhelm suffered #2
Wallace no cap 1 line stats #4
Joss #4
Moran stray #5
Wallace no cap 2 line stats #6
Hobby no cin. name correct #7
Gray stats #8
Wilhelm suffe ed #9
Hobby no cin. name incorrect #10

Now, there has been some flux between #4-10 and some people might argue that some others should be included but these are my top ten and #1,2,3 are very very difficult.



Joshua

WOW- I love this thread.

So are you suggesting that the Joss is the 4th most scare card in the master set? Wow. I had no idea.

I would like to ask, when you say scare, do you mean total population of the card (either on the market or in collections) or do you mean frequency that a card comes up for sale?

[Matt]

Rarity, has to do with populations; scarcity has to do with how often a card is available.

Using the SGC numbers, it seems the Mathewson variation is 2nd to only Hobby no stats as far as T205 variation rarity.

[calvindog]

Did SGC always differentiate the backs on its slabs?

[Matt]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Did SGC always differentiate the backs on its slabs?

I believe SGC has always differentiated the advertising backs on their slabs. Also, their pop report is broken up by Ad back (the numbers total) and there is no "other" category.

[Wite3]

You can not use pop reports for comparison...First off, people have broken out cards and sent them to cross. Next, if I understand pop. reports, PSA and SGC did not distinguish between Cycle to start and only started doing this more recently. Third, the grading companies make mistakes. I can tell you right now that I used to own a Wilhelm suffe ed that I cracked out of a PSA case that just said Wilhelm. Using grading reports and pop. reports is useless imho.

I think that Matty is more often seen for sale than the ten I listed. Even the Matty cycle has come up three or four times in the last 6 months. I can honestly say that in 2009 I only saw Joss a handful of times. Joss is a single print, HOFer, and in demand. It is a tough card to come by and when it does come up, it commands a lot of attention. Heck, I know at least three collectors who ask if I have an extra or know of one at least twice a year! I guess using the definitions, Joss would be rare and scarce (as are all the cards in my top ten). Matty cycle is not rare but is currently scarce as collector demand is currently high.

Joshua

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Wite3

Joss would be rare and scarce (as are all the cards in my top ten). Matty cycle is not rare but is currently scarce as collector demand is currently high.

Even though SGC shows 62 graded Josses and only 11 graded "37-1" Mattys, you think the Joss is rare and the Matty is not due to pop report abnormalities? Obviously pop reports aren't 100% accurate but it's hard to believe a combination of SGC badly mis-labeling a ton of Cycle Matty's as other brands and multiple cracks and resubmissions of T205 Josses that would account for that huge difference in populations.

Anecdotally (which is pretty flimsy evidence compared to the above), I've owned 4 T205 Josses and only 1 Cycle Matty.

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by Matt

Even though SGC shows 62 graded Josses and only 11 graded "37-1" Mattys, you think the Joss is rare and the Matty is not due to pop report abnormalities? Obviously pop reports aren't 100% accurate but it's hard to believe a combination of SGC badly mis-labeling a ton of Cycle Matty's as other brands and multiple cracks and resubmissions of T205 Josses that would account for that huge difference in populations.

Anecdotally (which is pretty flimsy evidence compared to the above), I've owned 4 T205 Josses and only 1 Cycle Matty.

Matt - I'm not sure people are truly making a distinction between the Cycle Mathewson and others. No way is the Joss more rare than the Cycle Mathewson. Unless Joshua is saying that the Cycle Joss is more rare than the Cycle Mathewson (which using the pop report is correct), there is no way that Joss as a whole is more rare than the cycle Mathewson. As far as SGC slabbing, the Mathewson is one of the most slabbed cards in the T205 set at 232. I just looked at the Cobb and they have only slabbed 182 (none with a cycle back), Young 111, Johnson 116. It's amazing that you have one of the most slabbed cards in the T205 set and only 11 are cycles. Using Joshua's statement that cards are cracked and reslabbed would only mean that there are even less since the same cards are going back and forth between companies. I have been tracking the sale of the cycle Mathewson since the Old Judge auction and I have only seen two that were identified as cycles sold. Both on ebay (Feb 2009 and this one that is currently being listed on ebay). It would be interesting to know where the 3 or 4 that Joshua says sold in the last 6 months were?

tbob - where were the sellers when the one sold for $9503? I didn't see anyone placing their's on the BST. The one currently on ebay was at $3000.00 when pulled. It's odd that others who have them and are saying that there isn't a premium aren't placing theirs on ebay.

r/
Frank

[Wite3]

Andrew,

I am glad you are able to buy "cheap" AB and Cycle lately but I have to say that most T205 cards have come down...in the last year, cards that went for $20-$25 are now selling for $13-17. Cards in the midgrades have also gone down. The good news is that high grade T205s have either remained steady or increased in price depending on player, demand, and scarcity.

I also hope you know that you will only have a subset of t205s as not all cards come with AB or Cycle backs.

Matty cycle should not be on the list because there are too many of them.
As you keep saying, Cycle is easy to find. Matty is not a short print and was printed as many times as Doyle, Olmstead, etc. We did a quick poll last time this topic came up and I know that at least five or six members came forward immediately saying and showing that they had Matty Cycles.

Price should not be a factor either, otherwise Cobb and Young and maybe Johnson would be on the list since all sell a little higher than some of the cards listed.

Joshua

[Wite3]

If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months. My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss (eventhough Joss comes with three backs incl. Cycle, it was shortprinted greatly).

If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)? They are all HOFers and available with the Cycle back and just as plentiful as the Matty.

Joshua

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Wite3

My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss

The pop reports show significantly otherwise (5-6 times as many Josses as Matty Cycles). My guess as to why your survey shows differently then the SGC population reports is that your documentation is of which cards came up for sale (scarcity) which doesn't necessarily indicate how many of each exist (rarity). The Joss has been a known rarity for years and people may hold on to it; the Matty only recently gained wide acclaim and is still not 100% well known (in fact we had a long time board member start a thread about a month ago asking if anyone knew anything about a 37-1 Matty variation) and therefore it's probable not everyone is yet holding it; I wonder approximately what % of the sales of the Cycle Matty that you recorded were advertised as it being the rare 37-1 variation?

If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)?

Rarity doesn't equal selling for more. I know you suggested in another thread that the T206 DeMitt/O'Hara only sell for more because you think they are rarer then other PB cards but that argument isn't correct; there are many PB backed T206s with identical press runs to the DeMitt & O'Hara that sell for no such premium. As is this case here, it is the combination of the rarity + the variation that drives the value and the reason why the Matty will always sell for more then the other HOFers you mentioned, even if they all exist with Cycle backs in similar numbers.

If collectors collected "true master sets" (every front back advertising combo) then your logic would be correct, but most T-card set collectors consider a master set complete with player-specific textual variations, but not counting advertising back differences. It's why most consider the T206 set includes both version of Demitt/O'Hara.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Wite3

If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months.

Joshua

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

Originally Posted by Wite3

A few things first...Andrew has bought many T205s in the past year but I am fairly certain, I now own one of the largest and most diverse t205 collections. I have also, watched, charted, and handled thousands of t205s in the last decade. In the past 15 years I have put one near master set together missing only a Drum and a Hobby no stats, and am very close on a second set (minus three cards). Andrews set and cards are certainly in better condition than mine but I love my beaters.

In no way shape or form will I arguee this with Josh. I have only been activly building my set for a yr now but I want to create a very unique set with as many not so common backs as possible. Is it going to be worth more? Maybe but Maybe not. Its more of a challenge to do this otherwise I may be done to quick and burn out.

Also if a Joss Cycle sold for just under $1200 then a Matty should be just as cheap right

[Misunderestimated]

I think that this card's "value" increased exponentially the moment it was added as a variation to the PSA set Registry. Whether that is as it should be is another question entirely. ....

[Matt E.]

Originally Posted by Misunderestimated

I think that this card's "value" increased exponentially the moment it was added as a variation to the PSA set Registry. Whether that is as it should be is another question entirely. ....

Why this card, why now? How does one get a card added as a variation?

Matt E.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Matt E.

Why this card, why now?

I heard that upon learning you were close to completing your master set, SCD, PSA and SGC all had a meeting and made the decision to add it to their checklists so that you'd have another hurdle to overcome.

[chaddurbin]

this reminds me of the e97 hartsel variation that was added to the registry a few years ago...as soon as it was "deemed" a legit variation by 3rd party auth. the price must've 3x or 4x right away...LOL! from a $75 common that i'd seen come up multiple times (even bought one from tbob) suddenly jumping to $500-$800. absurd hype for the master set collectors....

seems like most of the long time t205 set collectors have come to a consensus on the matty (registry/pop overhype)...i'd rather have the joss cycle because the matty portrait is kinda creepy with those bug eyes (sorry jim).

[Matt E.]

Originally Posted by Matt

I heard that upon learning you were close to completing your master set, SCD, PSA and SGC all had a meeting and made the decision to add it to their checklists so that you'd have another hurdle to overcome.

Matt,
Now that's funny. That's it I'm cracking them all out today.

It really is a pain in the ass hurdle however.

Matt E.

[tbob]

The Hartsel/Hartsell variation is a good comparison as Quan points out. I was able to get a one "L" Hartsel finally when I decided to complete the master set of E97s. It had already started tailing down from its original high price and I expect the Matty 37-1 to do the same.