Is this card really worth that????

[Wite3]

A few things first...Andrew has bought many T205s in the past year but I am fairly certain, I now own one of the largest and most diverse t205 collections. I have also, watched, charted, and handled thousands of t205s in the last decade. In the past 15 years I have put one near master set together missing only a Drum and a Hobby no stats, and am very close on a second set (minus three cards). Andrews set and cards are certainly in better condition than mine but I love my beaters.

Now, a bit of history...the Cycles used to carry a slight premium, usually about 2x-3x...that all changed about 5 years ago when a rather large find was made and sold into the hobby through ebay and two other auction houses. The premium seemed to go down and I was able to pick up some nice Cycles for nearly the same prices as the more common backs. I will say that they are at least twice as rare as HLC or Hassan still...they also do carry a slight premium...just check ebay...there was one that I lost (or am losing) just the other day that is nearly twice what I paid for a similar condition PB two weeks before. American Beauty definitely still carries a premium. Always has...especially the black version. This version now seems to be rarer...Now, the economy is making the prices bump up and down a bunch lately...Andrew, if you really want, I have a fantastic argument on why there should be a premium on Cycle and AB....because flatly, there are fewer of them made than the others...Sovereign barely contains a premium because a bunch have come to market in the past and they are not as scarce as once thought (In fact, in my first article sent to friends on the T205 set in 1996, I had the rarity of Sovereign more than Cycle and American Beauty because at the time, they were seen less commonly). This set changes rarity on finds...see Hindu/Drum example below...

Bob, When I first started tracking backs and doing research on this, I noticed that Hindu was listed as rarest. As I tracked there was a small Hindu find in the early '90s which seemed to push Drum to the top. Up until recently, I had charted 23 different Hindu players including at least 2 instances where there were two distinct cards of the same player meaning the Hindu had to run a printing at least twice. Now there are 31 distinct subjects.

Up until a year ago, I had only seen 18 different Drum backs, all different fronts. Until the St. Louis find, I figured it may have only run once, but I finally found a double, so I know that the Drum run was run at least twice. No the Drums and Hindus seem just about even again.

I still believe that Drum is tougher but not by much anymore.

The Cycle Matty is no scarcer than any other Cycle card as far as I can tell. The Wilhelm suffered is scarcer. I think that the print run for that card was different. I think that it is a single print that replaced another card on the sheet or was replaced by another card (like a minor leaguer) and was run with a much shorter print run. Just like the Hoblitzell no stats was probably replaced by another card or replaced another card and run with a much shorter print run. Whether it happened early in the print run or later, those cards are much rarer than the Cycle Matty. Granted Matty is a HOFer and it is one of the most beautiful cards in the set, I still feel that the premium placed on it is way out of line with rarity...it is just a demand premium and will go down eventually.

The list of rarity changes with new finds but here is what I have been working with lately independent of advertising...

Hobby no stats #1
Wilhelm suffered #2
Wallace no cap 1 line stats #4
Joss #4
Moran stray #5
Wallace no cap 2 line stats #6
Hobby no cin. name correct #7
Gray stats #8
Wilhelm suffe ed #9
Hobby no cin. name incorrect #10

Now, there has been some flux between #4-10 and some people might argue that some others should be included but these are my top ten and #1,2,3 are very very difficult.



Joshua