Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

barrysloate · #1 08-23-2010, 05:20 AM

No question prices are way down across the board, despite the fact that some key rare cards are still performing well. There are a number of factors for this. The biggest of course is the terrible state of our economy. Not much you can do about that. Also, as cited by Corey, many of the whales are now selling their collections, and that has a huge impact on prices from top to bottom.

Also, don't underestimate that the baby boomers are getting older, and are now realizing that they don't have enough money for retirement. I heard a statistic on the radio recently, don't know where it came from but I will share it. According to a survey, 46% of baby boomers will run out of money in their lifetime. Have no idea if it's true, but if it is that is one of the scariest things I've ever heard.

Finally, this hobby has matured. It's not the "New" hobby of the 80's that was getting all this media attention and bringing in new collectors by droves. If anything, the media regards the hobby as infested with fraud, so it's not bringing in as many new collectors.

I think we have a confluence of many things happening at once. But if I had to pick the most important one, I would go with the bad economy.

calvindog · #2 08-23-2010, 06:48 AM

Corey, I agree. Fake prices are still rolling in and shill bidding is still going on, all impacting pricing. The crooks in our hobby don't even care that the FBI is watching half the time. It will take incarceration in a cell with no internet access for some of the fraudsters to stop.

bbcard1 · #3 08-23-2010, 07:19 AM

I collect pretty pedestrian stuff (low grade t206s...collector grade other stuff) and haven't really seen a huge drop. A low grade t card is still around $10-$20 just like it has been forever. I have been surprised at some to the 30's weaknesses, esp the Diamond Stars which are a classically beautiful set. I actually think the 3s and 4s will have more softness than the 1s and 2s and the 7s +. I have not seen many bargain prices on the top shelf players from most any era...Mantle, Ruth, DiMaggio, Cobb, Gehrig...when it comes to retailing.

I saw a Lipset quote from years ago that I think explains a lot...he was talking about the pre-1900 stuff...he said that the market was strong but thin...meaning that there was big money being thrown at it but only by a few people are playing. I think the combination of the economy and people already obtaining what they were looking for (I no longer need a 1967 Brooks Robinson because I have bought a 1967 Brooks Robinson therefore while I once was a potential buyer, I am no longer one) is the reason for the problems in the market...especially in auctions.

T206Collector · #4 08-23-2010, 07:33 AM

I concur that T206 prices on low-grade cardboard has been relatively stable over the decade or so that I've been participating. They are the bonds, if you will, of the baseball card industry. No risk and the market will always be there.

jeffmohler · #5 08-23-2010, 08:18 AM

I tend to think that the market is soft. I primarily collect 20's and 30's material with some Dietsche postcards and E93s thrown in occasionally.

I just bought two SGC 60 Gold Medal Flour common cards for $13.00-15.00 each and an SGC 70 Rogell (horizontal) for $40.00. Two years ago, I think I would have paid at least 2x-3x as much for the commons.

Like nolemmings said, Worch Cigars are hot, but I can't think of much else in my collecting timeframes.

As far as the cause, I think it is the economy. On many of the cards I collect all it takes is the absence on one bidder to lower the price substantially. In the Gold Medal Flour example, I think it was just one additional bidder that made the Rogell go from less than $20.00 to $40.00.

Mark · #6 08-23-2010, 08:30 AM

With many of the sets that we collect, supply is very limited, so it makes a difference if ten people come in or out of the market. The economy is bad and people are not sure when it is going to turn around. When it does, I am confident that folks will start buying and folks will start selling. I think that the Baby Boomer demography has to be taken into account, but (1) baseball remains a very popular game with younger people and (2) again it does not take many people chasing even the E95's or E120's to make a big difference.

Ladder7 · #7 08-23-2010, 07:49 AM

Kids (and adults) have so many entertainment options today. The money is there, just misdirected. If we displayed our items and didn't lock 'em away, I believe it'd serve us in a couple of ways.

I've displayed some stuff several times and the interest was highly positive. I'm planning on setting up another display at the community ctr around Playoff time. It's only takes a couple of hours, but goes a long way.

I was at work last year and a LL game was going on in the field behind the station. One of the coaches is a good friend, so I asked him to see if the kids would like to see some old cards after the game. A few did, and were awestruck by my low-end collection. Sadly, only one LL'r collected cards -because his dad was active in it.

We should be ambassadors, not reclusive. Crack your safes once in a while, it could pay dividends. And they couldn't care if a Cobb is Poor or Mint. You can see it in their smiles, like magic, people soak this stuff up. They're just rarely exposed to it.

insidethewrapper · #8 08-23-2010, 08:14 AM

As always : demand vs supply. The next generation just will not demand the way the "baby boomers" did. We grew up in the 50's and 60's and baseball was all that mattered to most of us. It only matters to a few of the kids now. Just check and see if you see any kids playing ball in your neighborhood. My kids ( now in there 20's) did not collect cards. There will always be enough demand for the low supply cards, but the regular produced cards etc will continue to fill auction catalogs as guys like me entering age 60 range get rid of their collections because no one in the family wants it .
When the "baby boomers" are all dead in 20-30 years, I predict the cards will be at all time lows.

#9 08-23-2010, 08:21 AM

We appreciate everyone's thoughtful response.

And we especially appreciate the fine effort to stop this thread from turning into political debate. It would be great if the people in office stopped the politics and remembered that their job was to serve the people who elected them (regardless of party) and not to spend 50% of their time attempting to get reelected or bashing the other side. From our perspective it is like watching a war where all the generals spend their time trying to gain influence with C&C and stop focusing on the enemy.

Back to Prices

Corey and Barry brought up a wide range of issues. We agree with them. What surprises us is that "last minute - last half-hour rush" has not happened. Of the last ten cards we won in major auctions- our winning bid was placed one or two days before the auction closed, in all but one case.

As for the thinness of the market, Lew Lipset was correct then and in many, many cases correct today. There are probably only 10 collectors who would pay a strong price for a rare but relatively obscure piece of memorabilia or a high grade (non HOF) type card. There were number of items in the Heritage and Legendary auctions which are truly rare but sold at surprisingly low levels- i.e. the unopened Darby Chocolate box.

In fact the best advice we ever received was from Billy Mastro in 1981 when we had lost every card in a sale that he and Don Steinbach were running. Bill said...." Don't worry Bruce- remember it is only a piece of old cardboard."

Regardless of short time price variations, we have had a 35 year love affair with the hobby. and we never forget our vows- for better or for worse for richer or for poorer. While values will change our love for great memorabilia will be with us as long as we live.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

thekingofclout · #10 08-23-2010, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yankeefan51

Regardless of short time price variations, we have had a 35 year love affair with the hobby. and we never forget our vows- for better or for worse for richer or for poorer. While values will change our love for great memorabilia will be with us as long as we live.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

That's a terrific quote Bruce!

Jim VB · #11 08-23-2010, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thekingofclout

That's a terrific quote Bruce!

Yes, it is. And he has expressed similar sentiments before.

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/ite...-card-col.html

ChiefBenderForever · #12 08-23-2010, 10:22 AM

I think a lot of it is just an economic correction, along with inflation. The whole 'it just takes one extra bidder' is also a factor that can be the difference of hundreds or thousands of dollars on an item. A lot of it is just luck and timing as well. The T207's that just sold really well could cause someone to think it is a good time to sell them and maybe list them in a week or month and only see half the prices just realized, there is no real explanation. Sales are still strong even though considered soft it is a lot of money being spent no matter how you look at it.

iggyman · #13 08-23-2010, 08:36 AM

The card market is soft right now, no denying that. For the variety of reasons discussed so far and in the past (economy, FBI, eBay fees, end of summer vacations, too many auction houses, etc...), collectors, flippers, & whales are holding back and I believe that is impacting prices. However, if you approach the current market with a five to ten year horizon, then it is a fantastic time to be a buyer. That is the approach I'm taking right now and I strongly believe I will do just fine. I've never bought into the theory that once all the baby boomers retire prewar card prices will plummet. As long as baseball is thriving and the population in the U.S. is growing, new collectors will take the boomers place.

Lovely Day...

#14 08-23-2010, 08:41 AM

We appreciate everyone's thoughtful response.

And we especially appreciate the fine effort to stop this thread from turning into political debate. It would be great if the people in office stopped the politics and remembered that their job was to serve the people who elected them (regardless of party) and not to spend 50% of their time attempting to get reelected or bashing the other side. From our perspective it is like watching a war where all the generals spend their time trying to gain influence with C&C and stop focusing on the enemy.

Back to Prices

Corey and Barry brought up a wide range of issues. We agree with them. What surprises us is that "last minute - last half-hour rush" has not happened. Of the last ten cards we won in major auctions- our winning bid was placed one or two days before the auction closed, in all but one case.

As for the thinness of the market, Lew Lipset was correct then and in many, many cases correct today. There are probably only 10 collectors who would pay a strong price for a rare but relatively obscure piece of memorabilia or
a high grade (non HOF) type card. There were number of items in the Heritage and Legendary auctions which are truly rare but sold at surprisingly low levels- i.e. the unopened Darby Chocolate box.

In fact the best advice we ever received was from Billy Mastro in 1981 when we had lost every card in a sale that he and Don Steinbach were running. Bill said...." Don't worry Bruce- remember is only a piece of old cardboard."

Regardless of short time price variations, we have had a 35 year love affair with the hobby. and we never forget our vows- for better or for worse for richer or for poorer. While values will change our love for great memorabilia will be with us as long as we live

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

barrysloate · #15 08-23-2010, 09:13 AM

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

Bicem · #16 08-23-2010, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

agreed 100%

Mark · #17 08-23-2010, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

I agree that things have changed. Thanks to the last 25 years the hobby has a status that it didn't have before. And if it is a fact that things change, then they will keep changing. Interest in the hobby may peter out or the country's ever-expanding population could be caught up in a new wave of interest in vintage baseball. But I still think that in any event the small number of cards that exist for most vintage sets will make them hard to find and will prevent prices from falling through the floor (Does anyone have a Hereclitus card for sale or trade?)

barrysloate · #18 08-23-2010, 10:44 AM

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

ErikV · #19 08-23-2010, 12:46 PM

Just read this in the Wall Street Journal this morning.

How have you redefined luxuries and necessities in the past two years?
http://on.wsj.com/bYaTmI

One of the most impressionable comments that was left is as
pertinent to this conversation as any that's been brought up yet...

"A luxury now is a weekend getaway near home. Dining out is a luxury.
Having a job is a luxury!"

For those of us who on the board that are out of work, baseball card
collecting is probably the furthest thing down on our priority list.....

ErikV

mark evans · #20 08-23-2010, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrysloate

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

I agree with Barry. While the economy may largely explain any current downtrend, I think the long-term prognosis for vintage cards needs to take into account that demand will likely drop off once we baby boomers move on, so to speak.

rdixon1208 · #21 08-23-2010, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mark evans

I agree with Barry. While the economy may largely explain any current downtrend, I think the long-term prognosis for vintage cards needs to take into account that demand will likely drop off once we baby boomers move on, so to speak.

While there is no doubt some truth here, there also seems to be a large group my age (30) that are coming into pre-war now. We all have the same story. There was a card shop in our town. We collected cards, and so did all of our friends. We longed for the '89 UD Griffey. Then we got out of cards as teenagers and young adults. Now we have jobs and we want to get back in. The cards we have at our moms' house are worthless, and we want to make sure that whatever we spend our money on now won't be trash in a few years. This naturally leads to vintage and/or pre-war. Think about it...how many of the recent "New to the board" threads are from guys just like me. There was a thread a few months ago that said something like "Who will buy our cards twenty years from now?" My favorite answer....."I Will"

eb548 · #22 08-23-2010, 09:15 AM

While some trends might point towards downward movement in the pricing curve, i argue that this trend is typical to any (non-recession proof) hobby. Nonetheless, this is ABSOLUTELY NOT the case hobby-wide. "MArket Softening" which was mentioned in the initial post by Bruce is relative. Look at t206s, t206 rare backs, tougher t207's, high grade hall of famers in the more "popular and widely traded sets", cracker jacks etc. Those who probably focus/collect these sets and types most probably do not feel a significant softening, if any. The hobby is like any other hobby in the world..supply and demand. Clearly the supply of people willing to part with their cash towards purchase of collectibles is lower in our current economic state. However the hobby is also changing in that the demand is shifting towards more popular sets and popular players.

If you were spending $XXXX amount of money a year on cards 2-3 yrs ago in a perceived never ending upward trend in the hobby, you had more monetary ability to purchase different types of cards and different players with confidence that your money was safely invested and you were buying with good value. If that budget was cut in half to today, this new dollar amount would cause you to prioritize, purchase less, and focus on "safer" purchases with better investment potential (causing many collectors to shift demand to t206's, hofers, etc keeping the market for them relatively stable (and what i forecast as stable for years to come!). As for a an e102 common in a 3..thats the market that gets hit the most. The common card in an abscure and not very popular set is going to get hit the hardest.

Look at t206 rare backs, goodwin champions, high grade hall of famers in ket sets in the hobby, and the most popular cards in our hobby. I see strength!!

36GoudeyMan · #23 08-23-2010, 09:26 AM

...and politics aside, I've been following a few 30s and 40s sets, and have seen prices for 6s, 7s and 8s at ridiculously low levels. Compared to VCP's historic review, prices of common, big-set cards in PSA 7 are down as much as 50%, PSA 8s are down as much as 1/3. I watch auctions end and kick myself for not bidding -- even in sets I do not aggressively collect -- because the final price wound up being so low.

However, you never really know how high the high bidder would have gone, so perhaps with two bidders, the price realized would be more in line with historical prices. And that raises the question posed by some, whether the market is really soft, or whether fewer buyers are chasing cards and not driving prices up as much as they did before everyone got their example of Card X, or the economy pulled them out of the market.

I work in the bankruptcy field, and I will tell you from the front lines that real people's discretionary income is as low as I have ever seen it.

I conclude that the softness in prices is due to fewer collectors (for whatever reason, and there are many) not chasing as many cards and driving up prices competitively. Its supply and demand, and demand is way down.

Will demand go up? I think collectibles are the first to go and last to recover. People will be MUCH more conservative with their investments/discretionary income (pay down your mortgage faster, pay off the tuition bills faster, but don't piss your money away on baseball cards while we're in debt). Collectibles of any type will likely be depressed for 3-5 years, and will only recover when the average collector (and all of this applies to the average collector who really drives the market) can start competing for cards again, and that won't be soon.

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