SMR vs. VCP

[rdixon1208]

Great take David. One that I've never heard before. I'm curious though....how does this hold up with prewar cards? I've never opened a SMR.

Bye the way: I was looking for you at the Tristar show Saturday. I don't know if you made it but it was a decent show. Quite a lot of pre-war.

[BobbyVCP]

Nice theory but likewise I can give you just as many examples where SMR is way lower then the actual price of VCP. All the prices for the most part are driven by the registry people, I constantly see high grade commons in 9 or 10 sell for huge amounts, then the next one comes out and you lose a bidder because one has it so the price drops. Then a third one comes to the market and again now 2 registry guys are out so the price drops even more.

[majordanby]

does anyone know how PSA comes up with their SMR values?

[smtjoy]

I see what your saying David and maybe SMR is High on Topps and Bowman cards but on most cards I collect- Exhibits, M101, E's it is quite low and I almost always pay over 100% even for VG cards. Hell on 1933 exhibits I will buy as many as you can find at 110+% of SMR.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by smtjoy

I see what your saying David and maybe SMR is High on Topps and Bowman cards but on most cards I collect- Exhibits, M101, E's it is quite low and I almost always pay over 100% even for VG cards. Hell on 1933 exhibits I will buy as many as you can find at 110+% of SMR.

SMR is also way low on many T207s, M116s, and pretty much all pre-war hockey (especially grades between 2-4).

IMO the SMR plays very little part in the actual prices paid for pre-war cards. Walking around the National in 2011 for several days and talking with many pre-war dealers and collectors, I don't recall a single person looking at or referring to the SMR (despite the fact that they gave a free copy to pretty much everyone in the room).

Cheers,
Blair

[HRBAKER]

David,
Your theory assumes that a significant number of people buying cards look at the SMR for pricing information. Do you believe that?

Jeff

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

David,
Your theory assumes that a significant number of people buying cards look at the SMR for pricing information. Do you believe that?

Jeff

Absolutely. There are plenty of threads (on this and many other boards) comparing SMR to VCP. If people weren't looking at the SMR, these threads wouldn't exist because people wouldn't care.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

SMR is also way low on many T207s, M116s, and pretty much all pre-war hockey (especially grades between 2-4).

I did some quick research on the T207 and M116s to prove my theory. I took the first three HOFers in the T207 set (Bender, Bresnahan and Carey) and the last three HOFers in the M116 set (Wallace, Willis and Young - I skipped Walsh because there was no pricing data) and looked at the SMR vs. VCP price for each of those cards in a PSA 5.

T207 (all common backs)
Bender - SMR $430 vs. VCP $385.99
Bresnahan - SMR $430 vs. VCP $223.07
Carey - SMR $500 vs. VCP $450

M116 (blue backs)
Wallace - SMR $265 vs. VCP $208.32
Willis - SMR $265 vs. VCP $277
Young - $900 vs. VCP $822

As you can see, only 1 card (M116 Willis) had a higher VCP than SMR (and it was less than 5%). I tried to be as fair as I could in my 15 minutes of research. I'm sure someone can give other examples of cards in these sets (or other sets) where the VCP is higher than the SMR, but that holds true of any set/any year. I still stand behind my original statement that for the most part, VCP is lower than SMR (on most cards).

[HRBAKER]

Is there no issue with a leading grading company that sells advertising to major auction houses printing/issuing a pricing guide. Are we supposed to believe that this information can be taken legitimately. To me that's like the Frito-Lay Co. printing the Physician's Desk reference.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I did some quick research on the T207 and M116s to prove my theory. I took the first three HOFers in the T207 set (Bender, Bresnahan and Carey) and the last three HOFers in the M116 set (Wallace, Willis and Young - I skipped Walsh because there was no pricing data) and looked at the SMR vs. VCP price for each of those cards in a PSA 5.

T207 (all common backs)
Bender - SMR $430 vs. VCP $385.99
Bresnahan - SMR $430 vs. VCP $223.07
Carey - SMR $500 vs. VCP $450

M116 (blue backs)
Wallace - SMR $265 vs. VCP $208.32
Willis - SMR $265 vs. VCP $277
Young - $900 vs. VCP $822

As you can see, only 1 card (M116 Willis) had a higher VCP than SMR (and it was less than 5%). I tried to be as fair as I could in my 15 minutes of research. I'm sure someone can give other examples of cards in these sets (or other sets) where the VCP is higher than the SMR, but that holds true of any set/any year. I still stand behind my original statement that for the most part, VCP is lower than SMR (on most cards).

Hello David,

The examples you chose for T207 and M116 are not really good ones for those sets. Those sets are not so much about the HOFers - they are much more about multiple levels of scarcity and even rarity in terms of many subjects. Although you chose HOFers, those cards are "common" in those sets.

Where SMR utterly falls down in a laughable way is failing to recognize the scarce/rare cards in these sets. Their across-the-board broad brush price setting had nothing to do with what the market is paying.

I don't have time to cite hundreds of examples, but there are literally hundreds.

Want one that I just looked at that made me laugh?

SMR says T207 Mike Donlin in a 1 is $22. It says that card in a 3 is $55. Hahahaha!

Wanna know the real prices people are paying (ie. the real value) found by looking at VCP? Try over $1,000 for a 1 and almost $3,000 in a 3.

Wonder if those buyers knew they were paying 50 TIMES SMR?

There are tons of examples similar to this.

Cheers,
Blair